Well it’s that week…the last race before the Chase for the Sprint Cup begins at Chicagoland. Before that happens however, there is racing under the lights on Saturday night at Richmond International Raceway. The last time the Sprint Cup drivers showed up at Richmond they provided some very exciting racing and were able to pass in multiple grooves on the normally one-groove track. Richmond has offered a lot of parity in the last five races, including five different winners, which will give us the chance to fiddle with fine-tuning the lineups more than normal.
With there being just one last chance to make the top-16 for the first round of the Chase, we will take a look at a top driver at the track and then the four drivers around the cut line for the playoffs in the drivers to watch section.
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Avg. | Diff | Laps Led | Laps Led | ||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Joey Logano | 5.2 | 4.6 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 165 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 110.3 | 0.6 | 41.25 | 8.25 |
| Matt Kenseth | 10.2 | 12.2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 389 | 0 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 105.4 | -2 | 97.25 | 19.45 |
| Brad Keselowski | 3.8 | 8.2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 512 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 116.8 | -4.4 | 128 | 25.60 |
| Kurt Busch | 9.6 | 11.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 346 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 103.8 | -1.6 | 86.5 | 17.30 |
| Carl Edwards | 11 | 12.4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 151 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 92.7 | -1.4 | 37.75 | 7.55 |
| Kevin Harvick | 4.2 | 7.4 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 105 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 112.7 | -3.2 | 26.25 | 5.25 |
| Kyle Busch | 13 | 5.25 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 87 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 107.6 | 7.75 | 21.75 | 5.44 |
| Jeff Gordon | 15.3 | 4.75 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 173 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 113.8 | 10.55 | 43.25 | 10.81 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 12.2 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 101.4 | 1.2 | 11 | 2.20 |
| Jamie McMurray | 17.8 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 93.4 | 7.8 | 1 | 0.20 |
| Clint Bowyer | 18.2 | 19.6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 43 | 1 | 79.9 | -1.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kasey Kahne | 18.6 | 11.8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 89.8 | 6.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Aric Almirola | 23.2 | 14.4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 77.9 | 8.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 19 | 17.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 77.9 | 1.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Newman | 16 | 13.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 0 | 86.5 | 2.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Denny Hamlin | 14.2 | 15.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 89.8 | -1.2 | 3.75 | 0.75 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 14.4 | 18.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 72.6 | -3.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kyle Larson | 9.4 | 13.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 83.1 | -3.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Greg Biffle | 26.4 | 20 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 31 | 0 | 68 | 6.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Chase Elliott | 19.5 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 16 | 0 | 77 | 5.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Tony Stewart | 16 | 25.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 41 | 1 | 67.8 | -9.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Austin Dillon | 19.6 | 24.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 27 | 0 | 64.7 | -4.6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Paul Menard | 17.2 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 26 | 0 | 63.8 | -3.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Danica Patrick | 20.8 | 23.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 34 | 0 | 57.3 | -2.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Trevor Bayne | 26.3 | 21.33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 24 | 0 | 62 | 4.97 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 18.2 | 26.8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 38 | 0 | 60.5 | -8.6 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Casey Mears | 24.2 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 31 | 0 | 58.9 | -1.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| David Ragan | 24.8 | 25.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 33 | 0 | 58.3 | -0.4 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Landon Cassill | 31.8 | 28.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 34 | 0 | 50 | 3.2 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| Brian Scott | 18.5 | 28.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 35 | 0 | 53.3 | -10 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Blaney | 29 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 50.8 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Regan Smith | 34 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 40.2 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Michael Annett | 33.6 | 36.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 43 | 1 | 39.3 | -2.8 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Cole Whitt | 35 | 36.25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 41 | 0 | 37.9 | -1.25 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Reed Sorenson | 37.2 | 36.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 42 | 1 | 37.1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 35.3 | 34.33 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 37 | 0 | 36.5 | 0.97 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Chris Buescher | 33 | 34 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 35.2 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Michael McDowell | 35.5 | 36.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 42 | 1 | 34.5 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Josh Wise | 33.5 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 42 | 1 | 31.7 | -4.5 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 40 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 40 | 0 | 26.7 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Dylan Lupton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
Key Drivers on Short Tracks
| Avg. | Avg. | Laps | High | Low | Diff | Laps Led | Laps Led | |||||||||
| Driver | Start | Finish | Races | Wins | Top 5's | Top 10's | Top 20's | Led | Poles | Finish | Finish | DNF | Rating | Pts. | Pts. | Pts./race |
| Joey Logano | 4.2 | 10.31 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 906 | 5 | 1 | 40 | 0 | 106.5 | -6.11 | 226.5 | 14.16 |
| Carl Edwards | 9.2 | 11.13 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 709 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 99.2 | -1.93 | 177.25 | 11.08 |
| Matt Kenseth | 8.4 | 16.38 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 899 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 3 | 101 | -7.98 | 224.75 | 14.05 |
| Kurt Busch | 13.9 | 16.5 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 600 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 97.9 | -2.6 | 150 | 9.38 |
| Kevin Harvick | 11.9 | 13 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 798 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 1 | 110.4 | -1.1 | 199.5 | 12.47 |
| Jeff Gordon | 11.8 | 7.69 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 376 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 104.6 | 4.11 | 94 | 7.23 |
| Brad Keselowski | 7.1 | 16.06 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 763 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 0 | 97.4 | -8.96 | 190.75 | 11.92 |
| Kyle Busch | 7.3 | 15.54 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 990 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 3 | 103.1 | -8.24 | 247.5 | 19.04 |
| Denny Hamlin | 8.6 | 15.31 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 282 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 2 | 92.2 | -6.71 | 70.5 | 4.41 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 12.4 | 12.75 | 16 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 384 | 0 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 96.2 | -0.35 | 96 | 6.00 |
| Jamie McMurray | 15.3 | 14.69 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 246 | 1 | 2 | 42 | 1 | 92.8 | 0.61 | 61.5 | 3.84 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 21 | 21.94 | 16 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 63.8 | -0.94 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Newman | 12.9 | 13.38 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 84.1 | -0.48 | 2.75 | 0.17 |
| Clint Bowyer | 20.9 | 17.69 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 54 | 0 | 3 | 43 | 2 | 76.2 | 3.21 | 13.5 | 0.84 |
| Aric Almirola | 23.4 | 18.19 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 41 | 2 | 73.4 | 5.21 | 0 | 0.00 |
Drivers to watch this week:
Joey Logano: Logano is in no danger of missing the Chase as his playoff spot is secured with a win and a third place spot in the points standings at the moment. He is though in contention for a second win on the season at one of his better tracks on the senior circuit. In the last five races at R.I.R. he owns the best average finish in the field and is one of only two drivers to finish in the top-10 in everyone. Three top-fives, two poles, and a win also put him at the top of the list this week for must play drivers.
Chris Buescher: The rookie has a win to his credit in 2016 at the weather shortened second race at Pocono but that hasn’t assured him of a spot in the Chase just yet. He currently sits at 30th in the standings, and needs to be in the top-30 to qualify, but he is only 11 points better than David Ragan who sits in the 31st spot in the standings. That means he can’t exactly just coast around the track, he will to finish ahead of David Ragan to make it for sure, however he has just one race under his belt at Richmond and finished 34th in that run.
Jamie McMurray: McMurray currently holds down the 16th and final spot in the chase standings and is 22 points to the good of number 17, Ryan Newman, heading into what is usually a pretty good track for the driver of the #1 car. In the last five races here, he has an average finish of 10th and two top-five finishes without finishing worse than 16th in that span. He should be pretty much assured of a spot, though anything can happen at 150 mph on a tight track. At $7,500, he makes a good mid-tier play this week with his history at the track.
Ryan Newman: Newman had crawled to within seven points of the aforementioned Jamie McMurray at the conclusion of the Southern 500, until he failed a laser inspection post-race and NASCAR docked him 15 drivers points, basically putting the Chase out of reach. He has an average 13th place finish in the last five trips to the Virginia track and two top-10s to his credit. He will need that and some help if he wants to overcome the deficit he’s facing. Putting him in a GPP lineup at $8,000 this week is risky but it could very well pay off.
Kasey Kahne: Kahne is sitting in 18th at the moment but could change everything with a very good showing, and especially a win. He only has two options, one is to win as that would guarantee a spot, the second being to do 23 points better than Ryan Newman and hope that Chris Buescher doesn’t finish in the top-30. Kahne does have a fourth place finish here and an average finish at 11.8 in the last five races. He will need to replicate his top-four run and get help if he can’t win. At $7,600, he is a sleeper for me this week in either format.