Intuitively, it makes so much sense. Get the standings from last year, see how many points the winner needed and figure out the target you need in each category to get there. Then, when you do your draft or auction, keep track of your totals and make sure you surpass each by the time you’re done. This is called Target Drafting and many swear by it. During the post mortem of any live draft or auction, you’ll inevitably hear one of your competitors recite their totals:

“I’ve got 232 homers, 167 steals, 1015 RBI, 1,046 runs with a .277 average.”

Really? Before a single pitch has been thrown in anger?

Ask yourself a question. Have you ever finished a draft or auction and not nailed your targets? Probably not. How many of those leagues have you won? Probably not that many.

How many in your league(s) also hit their targets? Probably everybody. How many of those won the league? This one is easy – one.

A strategy is as much about comfort and confidence as it is about tactics and game theory. But, a strong argument can be made it was superior evaluation and tactical execution that resulted in victory and not meeting targets on draft day.

Research shows that league champions draft between 65 and 90 percent of their total production. The rest is acquired through in-season management. In other words, while you may have drafted “X” number of home runs, on average, players you drafted only account for 75 percent of that. This is the primary reason target drafting isn’t as effective as it seems on paper. You didn’t draft “X” homers but maybe only 75 percent of that total.

Truth be told, if you don’t meet your targets, or finish on top of the mythical standings (if you use software to track), then you need to work on your draft or auction mechanics. Everyone is making selections from the same inventory. You’re choosing the players for which you have greater expectations than the rest of your league while passing on options you rank lower. This bias alone should propel you well past your targets or to the top of the post-draft standings.

If you expect just one or two more homers from each of your players as compared to the market, you’re now projecting about 20 more home runs than everyone else. That’s with just one or two, which is nothing. I think Kole Calhoun will hit 23 homers, you think he’ll hit 21. As the kids used to say, “big whoop.”

While you’re bragging about your 232 homers, someone else is thinking…

“What the heck are they smoking? I see 197 homers, 141 steals, 934 RBI, 967 runs and a .269 average.”

Aside from basing your calculation on biased expectations, target drafting assumes each player will be the only one active in that roster spot all season. This is obviously not true, especially with respect to pitching. Managing from reserves along with adding free agents to replace injured or underperforming players affects your end-of-season totals.

As alluded to earlier, you draft between 65 and 90 percent of your season-ending total. On the average, 75 percent of stats are acquired on draft day. This leaves, on average, 25 percent to be added with the aforementioned in-season management. So even if you did actually draft more stats than the rest of your league, you’re not guaranteed the championship – not even close.

OK, hitting your targets doesn’t guarantee victory. But what’s the downside – does it actually hurt more than help?

Let’s take a step back and think things through from a practical perspective. You’re drafting toward a target and I’m not. We’re in separate drafts but the picks previous to our turns were identical. We both choose the same player. You scratch out the original targets and scribble down the adjusted ones. This occurs round after round. You get closer and closer to your targets.

We’re both doing the exact same thing: selecting the players we feel will help our teams the most. You’re doing the additional step of adjusting targets while I’m probably eating a snack. There’s no difference to our team construct. Your notes have scribbled numbers. Mine have grease stains from potato chips.

However, at some point, our focuses will shift. You’re trying to win the draft while I’m trying to win the league. Your concentration is continuing to draft static projected stats so you can continue to scratch out and scribble down until the scribble reaches zero. Mine is filling the snack bowl while continuing to maximize my team’s production.

I’m looking at the upside potential and downside risk of each player. The static projection means nothing. What happens if this player picks up more playing time because a teammate got hurt? What are the chances the skills growth that player displayed the second half of last season is real? What if this pitcher’s new pitch increases his strikeout potential? What if that minor leaguer gets off to a hot start in Triple-A and is promoted earlier than expected? What are the chances this set-up man usurps the closer position?

You’re drafting Jean Segura so you can attain your steals target. I’m drafting Jose Peraza in the event the Reds find a place for him to play and he swipes forty bags. You’re drafting Trevor Plouffe to get closer to your home run target. I’m taking Hector Olivera since the Braves have to score some runs and Olivera will be given a long look, likely in the meat of the order. You’re taking Santiago Casilla to meet your saves objective. I’m taking Hunter Strickland and his solid peripherals, skeptical Casilla can keep up his 2015 strikeout rate while the rest of his skills are slipping. You’re trying to win the draft. I’m trying to win the league.

Target drafting focuses on a static projection which is often inflated from personal bias. It ignores balancing upside potential versus downside risk – an element obligatory for success. You have 26 weeks to manage your team into maximum points. The best starting point is a team that offers the most potential, not a team that wins the post-draft standings.

Target drafters are trying to win the draft. I’m trying to win the league.