Let's circle back to power for this Category Impact, calling upon the work of one of the brightest young minds in the industry, Mike Podhorzer of Fangraphs. Mike is among a group researching how different measures correlate to home runs. Cutting to the chase, the Fangraphs studies reveal what some may consider to be intuitive but it's always nice when data supports intuition - home runs have a strong correlation to fly ball distance. The caveat is pop up data is not included in the calculation.

What I'll do is present the top-twenty hitters to this point with regards to fly ball distance. It should be noted that I wasn'yt able to properly vet this data to confirm pop ups weren't included in the averages as well as whether it was normalized to flesh out weather factors. But for the scope of this discussion, that's just fine. Consider the fly ball distance a means to filter out twenty names to discuss, We won't be doing any actual correlation studies to identify possible latent power sources. That said, after I'm able to properly vet the data. we'll run the correlations and talk about the findings.

What's presented below are the top twenty players in terms of fly ball distance in yards. Also included is the number of plate appearances and homers, the home run per fly ball ratio and the ground ball to line drive to fly ball ratio. All numbers are current through the games of Wednesday, May 30. A minimum of 75 plate appearances is needed to make the cut..it should be noted that unlike contact rate which was dicussed last time as having large enough of a sample to stabilize, the data here has not yet met its threshold so the observations and conclusions are more speculative than those presented with the contact rate work.

Brandon Crawford (PA 151, HR 6, HR/FB% 19.4, ydsFB 343, GB%/LD%/FB% 47/23/31): As you likely surmised from the photo accompanying the lede, Crawford is on the list, which is surprising unto itself. The fact he is number one is a shock. The takeaway message is while some will look at his 19.4 HR/FB% and scream fluke, it's supported by his fly ball distance so the question isn't if he can sustain the HR/FB mark but rather the fly ball distance. While I'm not saying he will, I'm pretty confident he'll exceed most pre-season home run projections.

Chris Davis (PA 151, HR 8, HR/FB% 25.8, ydsFB 343, GB%/LD%/FB% 37/22/41): Davis' pure power is still very much intact. He's hitting a bunch of fly balls and with good distance, His HR/FB is strong. What's missing is a horrible contact rate that was addressed last week. If Davis can make better contact, the pop is here. But the problem is, as we outlined last week, history portends Davis continuing to fan at a rate even worse than his already healthy pace. If you own Davis, perhaps you can sell someone on his underlying power metrics, conveniently ignoring the contact issue in the hopes of finding someone believing in a power spike.

Cory Spangenberg (PA 85, HR 2, HR/FB% 15.4, ydsFB 340, GB%/LD%/FB% 43/31/26): DFS players are no doubt aware of Spangenberg as he's emerged as a cheap middle infield option. His fly ball distance comes with an asterisk as he barely made the threshold in plate appearances and he doesn't hit many fly balls so clocking one or two can skew the numbers. Still, it tells us that Spangenberg has a little pop which is probably more important for seasonal leagues though it does add to his potential as a DFS tourney play. Just realize a fly ball rate in the twenties will cap home runs, regardless of the distance of the balls he does loft.

Christian Yelich (PA 99, HR 1, HR/FB% 12.5, ydsFB 340, GB%/LD%/FB% 75/11/14): The absolutely bizarre batted ball profile of Yelich is even more goofy so far this season. It could be assumed injuries are contributing to this dichotomy of fly balls traveling really far but only a handful are hit. The thing is, Yelich showed the same thing last season, but not to this extreme. All this said, do you really want Yelich lofting more balls in Marlins Park or is it better if he continues to hit it down and hard then use his legs? My vote is he should take the Willie Mays Hayes route and not worry about lofting the ball more, but still being able to turn on a mistake now and again.

Michael Morse (PA 136, HR 2, HR/FB% 11.1, ydsFB 339, GB%/LD%/FB% 59/21/21): Two things stick out here. The first is a dreadful fly ball rate, who does Morse think he is, Yelich? The second is we don't need correlation studies to note his HF/FB is out of whack with his fly ball distance, even in Marlins Park. The venue will temper it somewhat, but Morse should pick up the power pace.

Scott Van Slyke (PA 81, HR 2, HR/FB% 10.5, ydsFB 335, GB%/LD%/FB% 47/19/33): Van Slyke's HR/FB also doesn't jive with his fly ball distance. It so happens that his HR/FB is well below his norm which indicates he's hit into some poor fly ball luck. Granted, Van Slyke has limited use in mixed leagues unless you have a deep bench and daily moves, but if you grabbed him as an end-gamer in NL only, hang in. In addition, his DFS price will likely be even further depressed due to his paucity of pop making him that much more of a bargain basement option when he plays.

Ryan Howard (PA 151, HR 9, HR/FB% 20.5, ydsFB 335, GB%/LD%/FB% 34/26/40): Pretty much status quo for the big guy, with the same contact issues of Davis.

Pedro Alvarez (PA 142, HR 7, HR/FB% 33.3, ydsFB 334, GB%/LD%/FB% 57/19/24): Alvarez is the best example so far of a player with underlying metrics that will almost assuredly regress to his career norms. Specfically, his fly ball rate is usually much better while his HR/FB is bloated. No one is surprised by the seven homers but the pathway to get there was a bit curious. He'll probably continue at the same home run pace, just taking a different route to get there.

Gerardo Parra (PA 107, HR 2, HR/FB% 9.5, ydsFB 333, GB%/LD%/FB% 50/22/28): Don't get excited by Parra being on the list. All of the underlying measure are right in line with his career levels, suggesting the fly ball distance is the outlier. Further supporting that conjecture is his place appearances are on the low end and he doesn't hit that many fly balls so if he happened to nut one or two, the average distance could be exaggerated.

Jimmy Paredes (PA 117, HR 6, HR/FB% 25, ydsFB 331, GB%/LD%/FB% 45/26/29): Paredes is a iittle like Crawford in that his elevated HR/FB is at least partially supported by his fly ball distance so the question is also can he sustain that distance? Not shown is Parades is making much more had contact than usual. WIth fewer plate appearances than others on the list, his numbers have even more variance but the lean is Paredes will continue to hit the ball hard but his home run rate will wane some. Still, if his owner is looking to sell high, the drop may not be as steep as some likely perceive.

Brandon Belt (PA 133, HR 3, HR/FB% 12, ydsFB 330, GB%/LD%/FB% 38/32/31): Coming into the season, Belt was identified my Podhorzer as a candidate for a power spike based on this research but to this point it has yet to manifest. Perhaps it's park related and AT&T hurts him even more than it hurts others.

Starling Marte (PA 160, HR 8, HR/FB% 38.1, ydsFB 329, GB%/LD%/FB% 54/26/20): Even with a high fly ball distance, there's no way Marte maintains that bloated a HR/FB, especially in PNC Park. A 38 percent rate is just stupid lucky. That said, when it does come down, if Marte continues to sport a healthy fly ball distance, the power in general should subsist.

Roberto Perez (PA 93, HR 3, HR/FB% 23.1, ydsFB 327, GB%/LD%/FB% 58/13/29): Perez is probably carrying a inflated HR/FB mark but other than that there's not much to say. Once Yan Gomes is ready to return, Perez returns to back-up duty, a nice number two with a little pop.

Joc Pederson (PA 162, HR 10, HR/FB% 34.5, ydsFB 327, GB%/LD%/FB% 47/17/37): We really aren't sure where Pederson's baseline is but we know for sure it isn't a 35% HR/FB rate. That will regress but the fly ball distance bodes well for continued power.

Jay Bruce (PA 152, HR 7, HR/FB% 16.3, ydsFB 327, GB%/LD%/FB% 38/15/47): This is pretty much exactly what you'd expect with the omission of the fact Bruce is stlll trending upward with his strikeout rate, though admittedly this season's increase is tiny, he's basically whiffing at last season's rate. Still, Bruce is fanning at an elevated rate which will keep me with the unpopular bearish stance on a bounce back.

Howie Kendrick (PA 166, HR 4, HR/FB% 16.7, ydsFB 327, GB%/LD%/FB% 52/29/20): 
Eric Hosmer (PA 178, HR 7, HR/FB% 23.3, ydsFB 325, GB%/LD%/FB% 46/29/24)
David Peralta (PA 115, HR 4, HR/FB% 16.7, ydsFB 323, GB%/LD%/FB% 49/22/29)
Tim Beckham (PA 90, HR 4, HR/FB% 20, ydsFB 323, GB%/LD%/FB% 46/18/36)
Alex Rodriguez (PA 153, HR 10, HR/FB% 24.4, ydsFB 321, GB%/LD%/FB% 39/19/43)