Points leagues are the red-headed stepchild of the fantasy baseball universe, but they comprise a surprisingly high number of leagues. Some are straight points where the highest seasonal total is declared the champion, while others are head-to-head leagues. Either way, the proportion of advice dedicated to points league game theory is lacking relative to traditional rotisserie scoring. What follows are five tips specific to points league strategy and game theory.
KNOW THY SCORING SYSTEM
While there are some nuances within traditional rotisserie scoring in terms of player pool, league size and scoring categories, there’s enough commonality that relative ranking of players is consistent across most formats. The same cannot be said for points leagues, as there isn’t a standard point system and the differences have a rather significant effect on the relative rankings. As such, it’s integral to know how your scoring influences relative potential.
For hitters, pay specific heed to how stolen bases and strikeouts are scored, since this is the area that differs the most. Losing points for whiffs is even more important in today’s climate of increasing strikeouts. Look no further than Mike Trout, the consensus top player in rotisserie scoring. Depending on the penalty for fanning, Trout may not be the best hitter in a points format.
For pitchers, the key is the impact of giving up a hit, run or walk compared to the number of innings and strikeouts. Some leagues really penalize baserunners, others not so much. Additionally, the points awarded to a win or save relative to the other points is vital. This helps decide between a pitcher with solid skills versus one on a good team or having a good match-up that day.
USE NET POINTS FOR INITIAL RANKINGS
This is perhaps the biggest mistake made in preparing for a points league draft. The estimated raw points are not the proper means to initially rank the players. In short, a form of value over replacement is necessary. In essence, the points total of the worst active player at each position are useless, since everyone has them. It’s akin to a pick ’em pool where everyone chooses the same team; the outcome is moot. Depending on how deep you want to get, points should be adjusted by subtracting the projected total from the worst active player at each position from everyone at that position. At minimum, break the hitting pool into catchers and non-catchers and do three adjustments: catchers, non-catchers and pitchers. Then rank the players based on this adjustment. Please note that this isn’t a draft list where you simply take the top-ranked player regardless of position. You still need to piece the puzzle together based on draft flow and varying player analysis, but this way your foundation is sound. Failing to initially rank properly may result in overloading a position you perceive to have an edge, but in fact you don’t, since everyone else will also have an elevated baseline of points from other players at that position.
IN-SEASON POINTS ARE POINTS
As difficult as it is to grasp the above concept, it’s nearly as arduous to get out of that mode once the season begins. Ranking over replacement is strictly a means to assemble a roster with the highest points-scoring potential. Once the first pitch is thrown, a point is a point, regardless of where it emanates from. A point from a pitcher is worth the same as a point from a catcher, which is the same as one from a shortstop, etc. When doing trades or waiver pick-ups, it’s no longer necessary to consider replacement; it’s all about the raw points.
To that end, it is completely unnecessary to deal from strength to improve weakness for the sole purpose of balance. All moves should be designed to add more points to your roster, not just shift them around in a parallel nature. That said, trades with the express purpose of facilitating improvement at a position are crucial. For example, you observe there are a plethora of solid outfielders available but your outfield is stacked. Look to deal a stud outfielder for an infielder or pitcher, then backfill the open outfield spot with a solid free agent or waiver pickup. Ultimately, what you want is more points from the two new players as compared to the two you replace. It’s imperative to include the contributions of both on either side and not just compare the projected points of the players in the trade. If the quality free agents are pitchers, then make an analogous deal—expect to swap away a stud pitcher to open the roster spot.
IGNORE THE ODDBALL SCORING CATEGORIES
Some leagues award points for feats such as complete games, shutouts, no-hitters and hitting for the cycle. Some may penalize for hitting into a double play. While it is fine to bump horses like Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez up a tad, these should be largely ignored when ranking, due to their randomness and unpredictability.
KNOW YOUR TRANSACTION RULES
This piece of advice is listed last since there are repercussions resonating within each of the above. It’s more apropos for pitching but depending on the frequency of moves, it may have hitting ramifications.
Beginning with pitching, it’s critical to decide how you want to manage your staff in terms of streaming two-start pitchers. This entails meshing how often you can make moves with the scoring. For instance, if the scoring does not penalize many points for runs and baserunners and awards a lot of points for wins, in a weekly format you may want to liberally stream starting pitchers. This means you can focus more on drafting more solid, reliable hitters early, since streaming a lesser two-start hurler is the same as an ace with one start.
With respect to hitting, in leagues with daily moves, you want a few batters with multiple position eligibility along with others exhibiting pronounced platoon splits or home-field advantage. This combination allows for your lineup to consist of maximum potential on a daily basis.