The fantasy baseball lexicon is filled with cliche advice, none more prevalent than “practice patience.” Being cliche is not necessarily a bad thing, though the undertone that cliche is by definition overused and not original suggests the axiom could be in need of an update.
Keep in mind that the original advent of this hobby entailed an auction using a single league player pool. Furthermore, you were stuck with the squad you assembled unless a player was put on the disabled list or demoted. Not only that, if the player was activated from the DL to his Major League roster, you were forced to choose between him and the player you acquired as a replacement. There wasn’t shifting of players using multiple position eligibility; either keep the substitute, or drop him for the original.
This format screams patience, primarily because you have no other choice. You’re in essence forced into patience since there’s no means to replace the struggling player. Those of us weaned on this format have been preaching from the altar of patience out of necessity as much as practicality. It’s engrained in our DNA. Don’t worry, the message is still going to be “exercise patience.” It’s just that with the alterations to the original format, everything is contextual. Practicing patience is relative to the quality of player interwoven with the format.
Distilled down to its base, the reason to demonstrate patience is that the available substitutes are not likely to outperform the original player over the remainder of the season. Water usually finds its level, thus the struggling player will rebound.
The majority of rule changes have increased the quality of possible substitutes or facilitated roster movement. First came the free agent acquisition budget, allowing free replacement of a struggling player devoid of injury or demotion. Reserve lists followed, which meant you didn’t even have to release the underperformer; you could stash him. Perhaps the greatest change was the shift from single pool leagues to mixed universe, adding a treasure trove of available replacements to the inventory. And finally, transactions became more frequent in some formats.
Taken together, the quality of available replacement is greatly improved, as is the freedom to affect such a move. The reaction of the fantasy baseball populace was a complete reversal, as many grew impatient far too quickly, much to the chagrin of the old guard continuing to espouse the doctrine of patience.
As mentioned, it’s all about context. Regardless of how lax the rules have become with the addition of all these safety nets, finding an available equivalent for one of the top players is still a tall task. But there’s nothing wrong with considering the end-game roster spots as fungible, so taking more liberal chances is a viable, if not recommended strategy.
There’s another factor that feeds into the notion of patience. With advances in data collection and analysis, the ability to discern a true decline in skills from an unlucky or randomly poor start has improved immensely. That is, there may be tangible reasons to either stay the course or cash in your chips, regardless of the quality of the player.
The most useful litmus test for hitters is comparing strikeout rate to previous seasons. The ability to make contact is the most basal skill, thus can serve as a proxy for the others. Plus, it stabilizes sooner than the other measures, so a decision involving an unexpected contact rate can be rendered earlier.
This performance benchmark has served to take some of the guesswork out of demonstrating patience. The time frame is a matter of debate within the sabermetric community but, for our purposes, two months is adequate. After two months, if a hitter is whiffing at an elevated rate, chances are he will continue to do so, thus the reins of patience can be loosened. The course of action still depends on the quality of replacement, but after a couple of months, looking to deal a struggling player, selling low if you will, is certainly defensible—especially if you can find someone expecting a rebound that is no longer assured. Inherent in the two-month timeline is until it passes, it’s still wise to practice patience, even if excruciatingly so (head nod to Ron Shandler for the verbiage).
As it happens, strikeout rates for pitchers are also the favored gauge to measure a change of skills. Hence, the same two-month time frame is recommended before cutting bait on a scuffling hurler. That said, since pitching is more match-up dependent, taking advantage of a reserve spot to avoid difficult encounters early in the season is feasible, particularly if the replacement has a favorable schedule.
Not only do we have a better handle on when a skills decline could be real, the ability to recognize sample size anomalies has been greatly enhanced since the Founding Fathers came up with the original rules while dining in New York City’s La Rotisserie. If a struggling batter’s contact is not an issue, the culprit is probably hitting into some bad luck. A batting average on balls in play (BABIP) below his usual level often uncovers a snake-bitten start. Eventually the hits will fall, pulling the average and associated production up. It is mandatory that a long leash be afforded to a hitter sporting a BABIP below his usual levels.
Similarly, the peripherals of a pitcher may appear fine, but he’s surrendering far more hits than normal. This too is a BABIP issue that is almost assuredly going to correct (this situation is addressed by Ray Flowers in Understanding BABIP). When a round bat strikes a round ball, the outcome is often out of control of either the hitter or pitcher. Sometimes hits come in clusters, which lead to runs. Over time, the hits will come at less bunched intervals and the ERA corrects. In fact, looking at the hit rate is a great way to decide whether to bench a pitcher for a questionable start. If his whiffs are down, by all means, reserve him. But if the punch outs are fine and a high BABIP is the problem, then leave the hurler active, since chances are you’ll miss out on a strong outing that helps mitigate the lesser ones already endured.
If a hitter is falling short of his power expectation, it’s due to one of two factors. Either he’s hitting fewer fly balls or his percentage of fly balls that clear the fence is down (HR/FB). The former can be injury-related, sample size noise or a change in approach. There’s really nothing you can do other than wait it out and, if the trend continues, consider taking action. The latter is often bad luck, just like a low BABIP. Here the call is definitely being patient; as with BABIP, luck should normalize.
Pitchers can also go through stretches where home runs come in clusters. Just like with hits, the distribution will normalize, and going forward, more typical outcomes should be expected. So again, if a pitcher’s strikeout rate is fine but he’s surrendering a couple extra homers, stay the course; he’ll usually be fine.
NOTE: For more detailed explanation of BABIP and HR/FB, consult the essay on evaluating players authored by yours truly, found elsewhere in this guide.
Before moving onto patience for end game and fungible players, it should be noted that the luck 
related analysis involving BABIP and HR/FB is actionable all season, not just the beginning. Many sources provide split stats so you’re able to analyze slumps in a similar manner, since most slumps are as much a matter of bad luck as they are a true slide in skills.
It stands to reason that the less you have invested in a player, the less you have to lose by moving on. That said, before doing so, it is imperative that you’re doing so for the right reasons. Just as a player can be unfortunate, he can also be enjoying a stretch of good fortune, which artificially bloats his numbers. If you pick up a free agent to replace a scuffling end-gamer, make sure he’s not simply on a lucky streak by comparing his BABIP to his usual level. On the other hand, if his strikeouts are down, he may be incurring some skills growth. Finding this type of unexpected maturation is often the difference between winning and losing. The same can be done for an available pitcher with a recent solid outing or two. Don’t drop a pitcher for an alternative unless his success was driven by high strikeouts with limited walks, as opposed to an outing where the hits were few and far between.
In summary, some things never change. More often than not a player with an established track record will perform at or near that level by season’s end. However, there are means to objectively decide if a replacement will be more useful than the struggling player. Don’t do anything hasty for a couple of months, but after that, take advantage of the next-level analysis that helps delineate the contenders from the pretenders.