After futzing around with a means to quantify quarterbacks for DFS, I settled upon a system that passes the eye test. Today I’ll talk a little about the options I plan on using quite a bit as well as those I’ll likely fade.
Here’s my ranking side-by-side with the consensus of industry ranks. Also included is the ranking (based on salary) of the various DFS sites. What I like to do is see which options I rank above their price point as this should improve their bang-for-the-buck.
| Industry | Zola | Draft Kings | FanDuel | Draft Day | Fantasy Aces | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| Mark Sanchez | 13 | 4 | 25 | 23 | 19 | 25 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 10 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 12 | 10 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Matt Ryan | 8 | 7 | 18 | 13 | 15 | 8 |
| Carson Palmer | 4 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 9 |
| Josh McCown | 20 | 9 | 28 | 32 | 32 | 22 |
| Jay Cutler | 7 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| Drew Brees | 5 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Cam Newton | 12 | 12 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 14 |
| Joe Flacco | 11 | 13 | 12 | 18 | 13 | 11 |
| Matthew Stafford | 9 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 5 |
| Tony Romo | 14 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 10 |
| Derek Carr | 24 | 16 | 24 | 20 | 22 | 30 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 15 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 17 |
| Kyle Orton | 17 | 18 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 20 |
| Blake Bortles | 21 | 19 | 22 | 29 | 21 | 26 |
| Austin Davis | 19 | 20 | 23 | 24 | 27 | 23 |
| Alex Smith | 18 | 21 | 20 | 17 | 20 | 16 |
| Eli Manning | 16 | 22 | 13 | 16 | 11 | 15 |
| Zach Mettenberger | 23 | 23 | 21 | 30 | 32 | 21 |
| Michael Vick | 22 | 24 | 19 | 19 | 24 | 32 |
COMMENTARY
Aaron Rodgers: The difference is slight, but since Rodgers comes out on top of my rankings and is priced below Peyton Manning on all the sites, I'll have a good deal of exposure to the Packer's signal caller in cash games. I suspect the reason for the difference in ranking is Green Bay is at home while the Broncos visit Oakland. Both are divisional games so if there is an influence (something I am investigating) it's a wash.
Mark Sanchez: The reason I'm higher on Sanchez than the consensus is I used Nick Foles' numbers as a proxy for Sanchez, at least in terms of yards. The reason for this is Foles' production is as much a figment of Chip Kelly's system as it is talent. It's predicated on volume. I likely should have tempered the expectations a bit but at the end of the day it really doesn't matter. Sanchez is going to be a popular GPP choice so I'll probably own a couple shares in tourneys but overall, I'll fade him.
Matt Ryan: I absolutely love Matty-Ice on Draft Kings this week. I didn't project him for it, but the 3-point bonus for a 300-yard effort is well within reach. Ryan's wideouts are finally close to if not at full health and the timing is beginning to manifest. The security blanket Tony Gonzalez offered is missing but the big-play threat of Antone Smith is something the Falcons didn't have coming from the backfield in recent years.
Colin Kaepernick: While Kaepernick ranks very high for me this week, I'm just not all that warm and fuzzy. I have this thing against fantasy quarterbacks that are reliant upon their legs. I realize this offers some upside, but I'd rather use an option with a 350-yard, 4-TD upside with a higher floor. That says, he looks like a GPP play for me on FanDuel. The ranking delta is too much to ignore.
Josh McCown: Similar to Sanchez, I had to come up with a projection for McCown since he's been out of action for several weeks (and was playing poorly at the time). If I'm going to call the projection mine, and not use something objective like his yearly average, then I didn't want to be influenced by other projections. As such, it appears that I'm a bit aggressive. But again like Sanchez, it is moot since the pricing alone dictates some exposure in GPP.
Russell Wilson: The projection for Wilson is skewed via the monster running games he had against Washington and St. Louis. But, it also represents the potential he can do it again. Based on my ranking versus the relative ranking on the various sites, I'm likely going to use Wilson on Draft Kings in my effort to become a millionaire. I guess that means I'll be entering a couple of squads since I'm feeling Ryan this week.
Good luck this week whether you're trying to double up a couple bucks or bank a million.