DO: Find the replacement for a starter that will be priced at or near the minimum
Just like in DFS baseball, identifying the lesser players with greater bang-for-the-buck and finding the elite players with the most potential are of course paramount in DFS football. But just as important is paying attention to the injury reports so you’re ready to pounce on the player(s) starting in their stead. This is true in DFS baseball to a degree but not nearly to the extent in football. The primary reason is a substitute baseball player is more likely to go 0-for-4 with 2 K’s than get a couple knocks with a run and RBI while a replacement football player starting that day, especially a running back, is assured of getting touches and hence points.
DON’T: Use the unknown player that went off the previous week
Yes, I’m looking at you, Allen Hurns. This is especially true early in the season when there are some newcomers to DFS and see the cheap price and expect a repeat performance. The reason has less to do with the likelihood of a similar performance than it does being contrarian. Though it’s less important in a cash game, going against the grain is integral in tourneys. Back to Hurns for a moment, the best way to fade Hurns is to use Marqise Lee. Lee’s price will still be low and many will assume he’s second fiddle to Hurns since Cecil Shorts is a question for Week 2. Lee had ten targets last week; he just didn’t get loose for a pair of touchdowns like Hurns.
DO: Use the least expensive kicker with the best situation
I won’t bore you with the details here since I’m working on a stand-alone piece to prove the point but kicker performance is variable. This isn’t to say that you shouldn’t analyze the choices at the bottom and just pick one, just that your group of possible kickers should be the lowest priced. You should still look at weather and the venue as well as the likelihood of scoring. That said, this isn’t exactly ground-breaking analysis. To combat this in tournament play moving up one price point is a slick way to be contrarian assuming you can build a strong lineup and have the budget needed to spend just a smidge more on kickers.
DON’T: Ignore the above if you have extra budget and opt to spend it on a better kicker
Everyone has done it. It makes sense. DON’T DO IT! Instead, go back to your roster and find a better place to spend the excess. There simply has to be a better way to use the remaining room under the cap. If nothing else, upgrade your defense.
DO: Spend a little more on your defense
Some group kickers and defenses together and say to pick the cheapest defense that has a modicum of a chance for success. If the chance of success is solid, then yeah, go cheap on defense, but still look for a potential bang-for-the-buck even if it’s not the cheapest candidate. Again, a deeper study is planned but the gist is defense-point scoring is a bit more predictable than kicking so it’s worth the effort to do the analysis.
DON’T: Spend absolute top-dollar on a defense
The key is defense scoring is more predictable than kicking but there’s still a great deal of variance, more so than other positions. Embrace the variance. Chances are at best, you’ll break even by choosing the top defense. By electing a lesser but still quality defense with a great situation, you have a very good shot at a decent return on your investment.
DO: Utilize Las Vegas betting lines to aid in your picks, especially the over/under line
As much as we think we know, there’s a group of guys smoking cigars sitting in dark room in the bowels of a Las Vegas strip joint watching VHS game tapes on their TV’s so old they still have tubes setting the line on NFL games that know more. There’s a reason why there’s so many luxury hotels lit up like Christmas with fountains and roller coasters and scummy guys on the street flipping cards at you with half-naked women on them. The over/under line is helpful. The more points that are expected to be scored, the better the players on those teams will perform. The favored team should score more points so players on that team are favored. Similarly, this data can help choosing a defense. It’s really not rocket science but for some reason, not everyone at least glances at the lines when making out their rosters. If there is one key to DFS, it’s the humble realization that as much as you think you know, someone knows more.
DON’T: Overthink lines and predict the score in an effort to choose a kicker
Sometimes trying to be the smartest guy in the room isn’t such a smart idea. Let’s say the over/under line for a game is 47 and the point spread is 7. This should not be taken literally to mean the predicted score is 27-20 so one kicker would boot two field goals and three extra points while the other would also have a pair of field goals with one few PAT. What if the over/under line was 44 and the spread was 6? This suggests a 25-19 score. Wow – the kicker on the team with 19 is going to nail four field goals and an extra point, gotta go with him. Really? How is the team with 25 going to get there? Do you really think the odds-makers are predicting 3 touchdowns and two safeties? Or six field goals with a TD? The odds aren’t a prediction of the score; they’re a means of giving the house the biggest vig. Yeah, a high over/under line means they think a lot of points will be scored, just don’t assume the point spread assigns how they’re scored.