Last time we took a look at a hitter's improved skills playing at home versus playing on the road. With apologies for the rather large data dump, let's cut to the chase and do the same for starting pitchers.

ERA 2014 2013 2012 2011
home 3.70 3.84 3.95 3.97
away 4.05 4.18 4.44 4.16
MLB 3.87 4.01 4.19 4.07
IP/G 2014 2013 2012 2011
home 6.04 6.00 5.99 6.10
away 5.82 5.79 5.79 5.96
MLB 5.93 5.90 5.89 6.03
K/9 2014 2013 2012 2011
home 7.56 7.35 7.29 6.83
away 7.29 7.02 7.00 6.68
MLB 7.43 7.19 7.15 6.75
BB/9 2014 2013 2012 2011
home 2.77 2.71 2.69 2.77
away 2.95 2.96 3.00 2.94
MLB 2.86 2.83 2.84 2.85
HR/9 2014 2013 2012 2011
home 0.89 0.98 1.05 0.95
away 1.04 1.04 1.13 1.02
MLB 0.96 1.01 1.09 0.98
W 2014 2013 2012 2011
home 34.2% 35.7% 37.0% 35.0%
away 33.1% 32.6% 34.6% 35.6%
MLB 33.7% 34.2% 35.8% 35.3%
H/9 2014 2013 2012 2011
home 8.54 8.73 8.80 8.86
away 9.08 9.13 9.19 9.13
MLB 8.81 8.92 8.99 8.99

Like hitters, starting pitchers enjoy an advantage in their home digs. Everything you'd expect to happen indeed occurs. At home starting pitchers exhibit lower ERAs, fan more, walk fewer, surrender fewer hits (and homers), go deeper into games and have a better chance for a win.

Some sites have roster spots for closers so here's the data for saves.

SV 2014 2013 2012 2011
home 23.5% 24.8% 24.9% 23.1%
away 27.8% 27.5% 27.1% 28.2%
MLB 25.7% 26.1% 26.0% 25.6%

 

 

 

Interesting - a greater percentage of saves occur on the road despite a greater percentage of wins happening at home. One reason is home closers cannot get saves if the game is tied in the ninth. But it also must be that road contests have more games that afford a save situation, which actually makes intuitive sense. This is a story for another day but this data may make you think twice if your usual ploy is to select the closer corresponding to one of your starting pitchers.

Most DFS sites score innings (or outs), earned runs, hits, strikeouts, walks and wins with some including losses and saves. Here's a condensed table showing the average increase/decrease for each using data from 2011-2013.

ERA IP/G K/9 BB/9 HR/9 W L SV
-4.1% 1.5% 1.8% -4.1% 3.2% 2.3% -4.6% -6.4%
4.1% -1.6% -1.8% 4.5% -3.6% -2.3% 4.6% 6.4%

Just like with hitters, this data is incorporated into the Fantasy Alarm Projection and Pricing Tool, adjusting the pitcher's neutral projection before applying the park factor to the associated stat. Though, the win, loss and saves projection are more match-up based.

Next time we'll take the league average player and a star for both hitting and pitching and calculate his expected fantasy points home and away for the most popular fantasy sites. This will give those that eyeball their lineups an idea of the mental adjustment they need to make with respect to home versus away.




Comments


Leave a Comment

About Todd Zola

Affectionately known as Lord Zola, Todd was the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writers Association recipient of the Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year, Web. He's been with Mastersball since its inception in 1997 and presently Todd writes for the ESPN Insider and Baseball HQ. Todd is a frequent guest on SiriusXM and is a regular on HQ Radio. He's a veteran of Tout Wars and LABR as well as a multi-time NFBC champion. Follow Todd on Twitter @ToddZola

Todd Zola on Twitter

Developing a serious mid-life crush on Liz Phair....

Anyone know of an upcoming lightning strike in the central MA area? I need to go back in time for when I chose Romo over Sanchez in #DFS

A Tony Romo interception is the same in any language #ThingsYouLearnWhenForcedToWatchFootballOnFoxDeportes

Listening to Buck and Aikman isn't nearly as bad when they're speaking in Spanish #ThingsYouLearnWhenForcedToWatchFootballOnFoxDeportes

Millions of struggling artists and musicians and Pitbull is on my TV.