Zack Wheeler (SP-NYM)

Injury – He sustained a torn ulnar collateral ligament last spring and underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2015.

2015 Season – Wheeler missed the entire 2015 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  Despite being out, he was the topic of discussion at the MLB trade deadline last summer when it was reported that he and Wilmer Flores had been dealt to Milwaukee for Carlos Gomez.  As we know, that deal fell through when the Mets balked at Gomez’s medical records.  The trade that never happened will always be remembered for Flores’ emotional display on the field when he realized he had been traded.  However, once the trade fell through, Wheeler called Sandy Alderson and asked not to be traded because he wanted to stay with the Mets during their renaissance.  Wheeler began throwing from flat ground in September 2015 and did not suffer any setbacks in his rehab or recovery.

Reason For Optimism  

  • Wheeler just watched his teammate Matt Harvey come back from Tommy John surgery and pitch like an ace from his first start through the end of the World Series.  The Mets have tried emulating Wheeler’s rehab schedule after Harvey’s so there is optimism for similar immediate results.
  • He just threw 10 pitches off the mound for the first time since last March.  This is a key step in his recovery process.
  • At just 25 years old, Wheeler isn’t even into his prime yet and will have the fortune of coming back in the middle of the season as the fifth starter on a staff filled with aces.  The pressure will not be on him the same way it was for Harvey last year.

Reason For Concern

  • In a best case scenario, Wheeler should be back by the end of June or early July.  He’ll also be eased back into the rotation on a strict innings and pitch limit with days skipped to account for.  What this means is that we are likely looking at maybe 15 starts of five innings each after he returns.
  • Wheeler always possessed raw talent, but he has not shown great command in his first two seasons (125/271 BB/K ratio over 2013-2014).  It may take him even longer to discover his command coming back from this surgery.
  • The Mets are clearly in a “win now” mentality and have a pitching staff built to accomplish that.  If Wheeler struggles and cannot contribute, the Mets may have a short leash on him.  They have plenty of other options to fill the fifth or sixth starter spots

2016 OUTLOOK – Wheeler is a risky draft selection in 2016 because we already know he will miss half the season, and any setbacks in between will only further push back his debut.  The Mets clearly want him as their fifth starter by July which would be a great way to ease him back into the rotation.  However, a lot of things have to go right in order to get to that point.  Even if Wheeler does return in July, there are a myriad of questions surrounding his velocity and command.  He does not have the same repertoire that Matt Harvey has in terms of his ability to command different pitches despite lacking velocity on a given day.  Wheeler can pile up strikeouts, but he can also pile up walks.  He tends to elevate his pitch counts early in games which is going to make it difficult for him to stay in a game long enough to pick up a win or quality start.  The talent is there, but the reality is that Wheeler is simply one giant red flag for purposes of 2016 redraft leagues.  He should only be taken late in drafts after you have already filled out your starting slots.  

If you are wondering the best way to evaluate players such as Wheeler so that you can be prepared for your draft, then be sure to check out the 2016 Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide. 

Michael A. Stein, Esq. is the Chief Justice of Fantasy Judgment, the industry's premier dispute resolution service, and co-host of the Fantasy Alarm Podcast.  You can contact him at michael.stein@fantasyjudgment.com or on Facebook and Twitter (@FantasyJudgment).