One of the most important aspects of preparing for your fantasy baseball draft is to keep a close eye on players that are coming back from serious injuries. That is because injured players can sometimes fall off of fantasy GMs’ radars and allow you to draft them at tremendous value. In 2014, there was no shortage of injuries to impact players, which likely had some effect on the outcome of your league. So let’s take a look at some of the biggest names coming back from injury that you should keep tabs on.
HITTERS
Prince Fielder, 1B, Rangers
Big things were expected of Fielder upon his arrival in Texas but it became immediately apparent that something wasn’t right physically with him. Fielder had played all 162 games for three years in a row and never less than 157 games since his rookie season in 2005. But after hitting only three home runs in 42 games, the Rangers shut him down with a neck injury and Prince opted for season-ending surgery. Fielder underwent a cervical fusion between C5-6 in May 2014 and left fantasy GMs with a gaping hole in their lineups. He was already doing some hitting by the end of the 2014 season and is expected back at full strength by spring training. He is no longer a lock for his usual production, but barring any setbacks he could be a great value as he takes advantage of the warm Texas air.
Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies
After a breakout season in 2010, Carlos Gonzalez became one of the most sought-after players in fantasy baseball. His rare combination of power, speed and batting average made him an instant first-round pick. But he maxed out at 145 games played that season and has been in steady decline since 2012, including appearing in only 70 games in 2014 due to several different injuries, including a patella tendon issue in his knee that required surgery in August. When healthy, CarGo is a five-category roto stud. The problem is that he cannot stay on the field long enough for GMs to reap the rewards. He is too untrustworthy to spend a top-level selection on draft day.
Manny Machado, 3B, Orioles
It has been a rough 16 months for Machado, who has sustained two serious knee injuries requiring surgery. He missed the beginning of 2014 recovering from surgery at the end of the 2013 season and only played 82 games last season before sustaining a partially torn ligament in his right knee, which again required season-ending surgery. He is rehabbing and participating in baseball activities, so there is a good chance he will be ready by Opening Day. At only 22 years old, Machado has already established himself as an injury risk, so be cautious about relying on him as your starting third baseman.
Jurickson Profar, 2B, Rangers
Heading into 2014, Profar was one of the most hyped young players during draft season. However, he suffered a right shoulder injury which ended up costing him the entire season. While he appears to be fully healed, the Rangers have indicated that Profar will begin the 2015 season in the minor leagues to help make up for the time he lost last year. He’ll only be 22 years old by Opening Day, so there is still plenty of time for him to re-establish himself. Profar could be a great value pick later in drafts if you have a minor league slot available on your roster.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Rockies
There is no question that Tulowitzki is an elite fantasy player with talent that normally justifies being a first-round pick. However, he has a well-deserved reputation as a significant injury risk, having only played more than 150 games in a season twice since he arrived in 2006. Tulowitzki suffered a hip injury in 2014, which required season-ending surgery. He is expected to be ready and at full strength by spring training. Despite the trade rumors all winter, you can expect Tulowitzki to remain in Colorado, which bodes well for his statistical output. Now 30 years old, he is a huge high-risk/high-reward player that you will never truly be comfortable building a fantasy baseball team around.
Matt Wieters, C, Orioles
Wieters underwent Tommy John surgery last year and is questionable whether he will be ready for Opening Day in 2015. He has been one of the most consistent power-hitting catchers in baseball, averaging over 22 home runs per season between 2011 and 2013. Returning from Tommy John surgery isn’t as big a deal for hitters, but there are some concerns about whether it will have any effect on his swing from either side of the plate. He will likely slip in drafts because of the injury, so keep him on your radar as a potential steal, especially in two-catcher leagues.
PITCHERS
Homer Bailey, SP, Reds
Bailey turned a solid 2013 season into a $100 million contract and promptly disappointed the Reds and fantasy GMs with a less-than-stellar performance in 2014. His season was cut short due to an elbow injury, which required surgery to repair a flexor tendon in his elbow. Bailey is on track to be ready by spring training and will attempt to live up to his contract as a front-of-the-rotation starter for Cincinnati. At this point, he's more of a depth play at starting pitcher than someone you should be looking to build your staff around.
Matt Cain, SP, Giants
It feels like Cain has been around forever, yet he is still only 30 years old. He had been one of the most durable pitchers of the last decade, throwing at least 190 innings every season from 2007 through 2012. The wheels started coming off in 2013 with an awful first half, but he bounced back nicely in the latter part of that season. However, 2014 was an unmitigated disaster as he finished 2-7 with a 4.15 ERA in only 15 starts before he was shut down with bone chips and spurs in his right elbow and right ankle. He is expected to be ready by Opening Day, but Cain is no longer able to be trusted as a top-tier fantasy starter.
Yu Darvish, SP, Rangers
Darvish was one of many Texas Rangers who succumbed to the injury bug in 2014. His season was cut short due to elbow inflammation but finished with a 10-7 record despite being on a terrible team. He has already begun an offseason throwing program and an MRI showed no lingering damage in his elbow. Darvish is a fantasy ace with a dominant 11.2 K/9 ratio over the past three years. The elbow injury could be cause for concern, as are recurrent issues with his neck.
Jose Fernandez, SP, Marlins
The 2013 National League Rookie of the Year underwent Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2014 and is expected back with the Marlins by June. It was a devastating loss for fantasy GMs when the Cuban sensation went down with the injury after making just eight starts and winning NL Pitcher of the Month for April 2014. He comes with more risk drafting this year than fellow Tommy John patient Matt Harvey because he will likely miss the first couple months of the season.
Matt Harvey, SP, Mets
One of the biggest stories of 2013 was the emergence of Harvey as the ace of the Mets’ pitching staff. He started the All Star Game at Citi Field and appeared to be heading for greatness until he was diagnosed with a partial tear of his UCL, which required Tommy John surgery. Harvey missed all of 2014 despite trying to convince the Mets to let him pitch in September. By the time 2015 begins, he will be a year and a half removed from surgery and will likely be the Mets’ Opening Day starter. To help limit Harvey’s innings, the Mets will sporadically skip his starts or go to a temporary six-man rotation. Even if he remains healthy, you should temper your expectations during his first year back from surgery.
Garrett Richards, SP, Angels
It took a couple years, but Garrett Richards matured into an ace pitcher for the Angels with one of the hardest fastballs in all of baseball. He was 13-4 with a sparkling 2.64 ERA before he suffered a torn patellar tendon in his left knee while covering first base last August. Richards underwent season-ending surgery and has begun a throwing program. He is not expected to be ready by Opening Day, but he should be back within the first month or two of the season. Richards turns 27 in May and he could have great value well after the big name starts are off the board, so don’t hesitate to stash him until he comes back if you have the roster space to do so.