Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets went two out of three Tuesday, returning just under a unit in profit. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored twenty-nine points in three quarters, covering the 28.5 point line. He made nine free throws in the first half, if only one of those were a miss, it would have been a sweep. Despite that, the point total of the Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder was a safe under, and Jayson Tatum was nowhere near his point total of 27.5. Sweet Meat Loaf was coming from the jukebox. 

 


It is another exciting day of the NBA playoffs with two number one teams in action. The Boston Celtics host the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Dallas Mavericks. It is game two for all four teams, and hopefully they are more competitive then game one. Boston’s spread is currently -13.5 on the Bettor Edge app with odds of -105.

Boston easily covered the spread in game one as the Celtics outscored Cleveland in every quarter. Oklahoma City’s stingy defense continued, as they continue to be the best defense of the playoffs. There are four bets today, one sportsbook special with better than average odds, two player props, and one same game parlay. As it happens there is a wager on a player from every team playing today.

NBA Picks & Predictions: Thursday, May 9
DALLAS MAVERICKS AT OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 

  • SAME GAME PARLAY: TOTAL UNDER 219.5 POINTS & TIM HARDAWAY JR. OVER 5.5 POINTS (+250 ON BET365 SPORTSBOOK)

Tim Hardaway Jr. played in his first game of the 2024 playoffs Tuesday, and his first game since being injured April 21st. He looked rusty in his return, one of five field goals made, with two rebounds in seventeen minutes. He went 0-4 behind the arc, but the Mavericks as a team had a bad three point percentage in game one, 34.3%.

That should change tonight as the Mavericks will need Tim Hardaway Jr. to play better. He was once the leading candidate for sixth man of the year, but has suffered some injuries in the second half of this season. He is the Mavericks best scoring bench player and two points is simply not enough. 

The eleven year veteran knows how to step it up in the playoffs, and make small adjustments from watching film to get clearer field goal attempts. He averaged over fourteen points per game in the regular season and earning ten or more points is not out of the realm of possibility. Six seems like an extremely low line given that Hardaway Jr. will probably play twenty or more minutes.

With that being said the Oklahoma City Thunder have the best defense in the playoffs. They have held opponents to below averages, and as great as an offensive team as the Mavericks are, they could not score over one hundred points in game one. The media is not giving near enough credit to the Thunder’s excellent defense, and instead choosing to focus on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s offense. 

Luka Doncic may have the 2023-24 scoring title but he is battling through injuries. He averaged 33.9 points per game in the regular season, but has scored over thirty-four points just once in seven playoff games. His point line is currently at 30.5, the lowest it has been in at least a few weeks. That is due to the unspoken defensive performances of the Thunder.

The point total is 218.5 on the Bettor Edge app, and 219.5 is the line used for this wager. 212 points were scored in game one, and the total will be near there again. The +250 odds are great for a two fold same game parlay, and a unit is advised. 

 

NBA BETS & PLAYER PROPS MAY 9

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS AT BOSTON CELTICS

  • EVAN MOBLEY OVER 10.5 REBOUNDS (-110 ON BET365 SPORTSBOOK)

Evan Mobley has lifted his play in the absence of Jarrett Allen, and Allen is in danger of missing his fifth straight game. Mobley has recorded thirteen or more rebounds in three of the four games Allen has missed, including game one against the Boston Celtics.

It is not looking good for Allen to play tonight, but he could return. Should that happen, it would only aid Mobley, as Allen will most definitely be limited by his rib contusion. His mobility has been severely limited and the pain when reaching or shooting, really anything that causes him to utilize his lateral muscles causes him great pain.

Meanwhile Evan Mobley helped the Cavaliers come from behind against the Orlando Magic and close out the series. He has played forty-one minutes in game seven of the series with Orlando, and the young man has a clear size advantage over the Boston Celtics. 

Without Kristaps Porzingis injured, Al Hortford becomes the next tallest starting player, and Mobley is two inches taller and several years younger. The Celtics take several jump shots and three point attempts, vacating the center of the paint for opposing defenders. Tatum has been an excellent rebounder for the Celtics but he can not physically out rebound Mobley on most offensive possessions. 

This was almost a double unit hammer but one unit now and one unit after official word and line movements is not a bad idea either. Trust the 2021 #3 overall pick to deliver on his rebounding line tonight.

 

DALLAS MAVERICKS AT OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 

  • CHET HOLMGREN OVER 2.5 BLOCKS (+110 ON BET365 SPORTSBOOK)

Chet Holmgren has really improved his game over the second part of his second season. He is playing with much more confidence and it can be seen on his game tape. He fears no one when slashing to the rim, and will attempt to block anyone’s shot when defending.

Holmgren averaged 2.3 blocks per game in the regular season, and has three or more blocks in three of his five playoff games. His confident play has him attempting several blocks, although he does not connect with all of them. Dallas relies on the length/size of their front court, and that helps Holmgren have more block opportunities.

He has also played thirty or more minutes in all but one playoff game this year. In the game he did not play twenty-nine minutes and had two blocks. His length is deceptive for some, and will make others feel more safe then they should be when looking to score. 

Dallas could be playing from behind again, and rushing several second half field goal attempts. Trust the 2022 second round pick to stand and deliver on this plus odds prop.

 

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS AT BOSTON CELTICS 

  • DERRICK WHITE FIRST THREE POINT FIELD GOAL MADE 0.5 UNIT(+350 ON DRAFTKINGS)

Draftkings is offering a BET & GET special for placing a wager on the player to make the first successful three point field goal made. This is a difficult prop to be successful on, but the ‘chalk’ line was taken. 

Derrick White has the best odds of any player in the Cleveland at Boston game to make the first three point attempt. With good reason too. Max Struss and Al Horford made two combined three point attempts in game one. Donovan Mitchell has been atrocious from the three point line throughout the playoffs. Meanwhile White is enjoying the best playoff run of his career.

White has attempted thirty-seven three point attempts in his last three games. That is an average of over twelve per game. The team with the most threes in the regular season, is looking to fill the void left by Kristaps Porzingis’ injury. White happens to be the main benefactor of that void. 

White has made twenty three point attempts in his last three games as well. He could throw it up the first time he touches it tonight. The first time he touches it will be early in the game and he has as good a chance as anyone to make the first three of tonight. 

Should you place at least $25 on this bet you will earn $1.00 per three made, regardless of who makes it. You also get the reward regardless if White makes it or not, so take advantage of this bet, and wager no more than half a unit on it. The rewards from this bet will be mentioned as a bonus bet in the next Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets article.

Thanks for reading my top NBA predictions for today! Remember to visit Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy sports and betting needs.
Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy