Thank goodness it is Friday! The weekend is here and hopefully the good times too. Friday’s usually make everyone happy, as most are getting paid for their hard earned time given to the company. It is time for the sportsbooks to pay also, and Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets have the bets to do it!

The series between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers is getting intense, and building up drama.. Who could have seen that coming? Today the game is at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in front of the rowdy Indiana Pacers crowd. There is a straight bet that comes from today’s action.

 

The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Denver Nuggets after a long break in their games. Minnesota has a two game advantage, and there are two wagers from the late evening game, including the Bet of the Night.

NBA Picks & Predictions: Friday, May 10

DENVER NUGGETS AT MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

  • NIKOLA JOKIC OVER 28.5 POINTS (-130 ON BET365 SPORTSBOOK)

The Target Center will be as loud as it has possibly ever been. The Minnesota Timberwolves have won six straight playoff games, and are the most talked about team in the playoffs. They have displayed a great rhythm at the time it is most needed. A suffocating defense that has led former players and NBA analysts to state it is the best in their lifetime… quite the statement.

The Denver Nuggets imploded, and are the most off rhythm they have been this season. They have several injured players, and Nikola Jokic has played through back and wrist injuries. However he does not, and has not had a designation for most of the season, and should be bringing his best performance of the year tonight.

Although very few are talking about it, Nikola Jokic just won his third MVP, a distinction that puts him with the best of the best. Having said that, game two was not his best performance. In fact it was his worst performance of the postseason, but back to back bad performances are rare from Jokic. He had as many rebounds as he did points in game two, sixteen. Look for that to change,  in the previous two games against the Timberwolves he scored thirty-two and forty-one points.

Rudy Gobert should be back after the birth of his first child, and that should help Jokic’s numbers. Although Gobert just won his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award (putting him amongst the best of the best as well), Jokic has owned Gobert. This extends into the time Gobert played with the Jazz and this series.

Either way Jokic is the 2023-24 MVP, he is the best player in the world, he is the leader of the defending champions, and betting on the best player in the world to have a bounce back game is hardly a gamble. 

 

NEW YORK KNICKS AT INDIANA PACERS 

  • INDIANA PACERS -7 (-112 ON BETTOREDGE)

The New York Knicks are playing at a level they have no business being at. Army platoons have lost fewer men than the Knicks have this season. In game two it appeared their leader, Jalen Brunson, was one of them… but nay. Brunson returned back to the game fifty-four years to the day that Willis Reed hobbled out to the courts of a game seven! Reed inspired his teammates to beat the Wilt Chamberlain led Lakers for the Knicks first title, and Brunson led a second half comeback over the Pacers. A truly remarkable and emotional moment for Knicks fans.

The other side of the tortilla reveals the frustration and eagerness of the Pacers to beat their rivals. The Pacers have decades worth of playoff ‘hate’ built up for the New York Knicks. Reggie Miller recently stated ‘...it is five on eight every time you play in New York’, referring to the officials helping New York. The Knicks have attempted twelve more free throws, and a couple questionable calls have been in favor of the Knicks, so perhaps there is validation.

Today’s game is at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse, not Madison Square Garden, which in the world of basketball arenas is near the top. The Midwest crowd may not be as brash as to chant F— you to a player that hasn’t played in over two decades, but they will bring energy in crucial moments. The Knicks will be forced to rely on players that have only sparingly played this playoff, and Gainbridge Fieldhouse will make communication difficult for a new starting five.

The truth is the players make the difference. The Knicks simply can not keep up this Lance Armstorng like pace with their starters. Jalen Brunson displayed his body is capable of a deep run in the 2022 playoffs, but the rest of the team is relatively untested. The Pacers are pushing at an extraordinary pace and the totals have been easily going over. 

Tonight on the home court against a depleted Knicks team is the perfect time to swing the momentum of this series. The spread is at seven points, which is high for a team that is 0-2 in the series. Rick Carlisle will make a statement win with non stop offense. He has shown no fear in keeping his starters in the games despite a late double digit lead, and that could be the case again tonight. Look for a blowout victory by the Pacers in a statement win.

 

DENVER NUGGETS AT MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

  • OVER 204 POINTS (-101 ON BETTOR EDGE) 2 UNITS

Once Tony Brothers and his officiating crew were announced the crew for this game, Fantasy Alarm IMMEDIATELY went for the double unit hammer. The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets series is without question the most physical series of the second round… yet it has the least free throw attempts, sixty-four. The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder have the most free throws in the series, ninety-four. In game one there were fifty-three free throw attempts and guess who the head official was… Tony Brothers. Remember Shai Gilgeous-Alexander busting the 28.5 point line mentioned in Fantasy Alarm NBA Best Bets’ Tuesday article with eleven made free throws? That was Tony Brothers.

The fact that there is a thirty free throw attempt disparity and that game two got out of hand is not a good look for the NBA. If the referees did not blow those two early missed calls on Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards, Coach Malone does not go irate, Jamal Murray doesn’t give the NBA media the most ridiculous hot take of the playoffs, and the outcome could have been much different. Referees are taught to keep control of the game by issuing fouls, often and early. Enter Tony Brothers who will have order in this game, as he has done for twenty-nine NBA seasons.

Those free throws allow for easy points for both teams. As mentioned Nikola Jokic was an easy smash because Tony Brothers will be watching the hand slashing, and double team body checking the Timberwolves have used in game one and two. This will extend both ways and to all players on the court.

Should there be fifty or more free throws as there was in game one of the Dallas Mavericks Oklahoma City Thunder game, it’s safe to assume thirty-five will go in. Asking for there to be 170 free flowing points in the modern NBA is almost a guarantee, even in the playoffs.

Trust Denver to score over one-hundred and for Tony Brothers to tilt tonight’s game to the over tonight.

Thanks for reading my top NBA predictions for today! Remember to visit Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy sports and betting needs.

Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy