Sunday brings along another full 15-game MLB slate with tons of baseball picks at our disposal. Check out these MLB best bets and predictions as you enjoy the Sunday baseball action. Our best MLB picks today feature the Blue Jays vs Nationals game and the evening Giants vs Phillies matchup. Plus, check out a few top MLB player props to lock in for Sunday’s games.

 

MLB Best Bets For Today: Sunday, May 5

As always, be sure to shop around for the best odds and lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. Without further ado, let’s check out the MLB best bets and baseball predictions for Sunday, May 5th. 

Blue Jays vs Nationals Prediction Today, 5/5

The Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals game today features an interesting pitching matchup. Alek Manoah makes his return to the majors for Toronto while MacKenzie Gore toes the rubber for Washington. These starters are the basis for our picks in this one. 

Manoah hasn’t pitched in the MLB since August of last season. The 2023 campaign was a disaster for the former Cy Young finalist as he struggled to a 5.87 ERA and 1.74 WHIP with multiple demotions to Triple-A. It was very unclear what we’d see from the Toronto right-hander this year and his shoulder issues during Spring Training definitely didn’t help. 

While on the Injured List to begin this season, Manoah made five minor league rehab appearances with some shaky results with an 8.69 ERA and 1.98 WHIP across those five outings. It’s worth noting that Manoah did toss six strong innings with one run allowed and 12 strikeouts in his most recent rehab start. However, he got blown up for six runs over three innings in the previous appearance. 

It’s a big wild card as to what we’ll get from Manoah in his first MLB start since last summer. Let’s fade him until he proves it, though. The Nationals don’t present the scariest of matchups and they’re about league-average vs righties this year. Still, the Nats offense can be feisty and should make Manoah earn it. 

Meanwhile, let’s back Gore to do well in his own matchup against the Blue Jays. The Washington left-hander has a solid 3.19 ERA through six starts thus far. His 2.68 FIP, combined with a high .392 BABIP, suggests he can have some better outings moving forward. Gore’s 29.0% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate are also both career-best marks so far and he’s seen an uptick in fastball velocity, sitting around 96-97 mph. 

We may be looking at a breakout season for the 25-year-old Gore and it’s still buy-low time. He can have a strong outing here against a Blue Jays offense that’s struggled vs left-handed pitching lately. Over the past two weeks, Toronto has below-average numbers against southpaws with a .286 wOBA, 88 wRC+, and .226 BA. 

Expert Blue Jays vs Nationals Predictions

  • Nationals Moneyline (-102 FanDuel Sportsbook)
 

Giants vs Phillies Prediction Today, 5/5

The standalone Sunday Night Baseball matchup features the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the San Francisco Giants. While we baseball diehards tune in, let’s root for scoring of any kind in this pitching matchup of Logan Webb vs Taijuan Walker. 

Webb is off to a solid start this season with a 2.98 ERA through seven outings. However, we could see some negative regression come to the forefront for the Giants’ right-hander in tonight’s tough matchup. First off, Webb’s road splits are worrisome with a 5.31 ERA and 1.72 WHIP over four road starts this year – compared to a miniscule 0.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP at home. We saw something similar last season for Webb, who had a 2.26 home ERA but a 4.31 road ERA. 

Furthermore, Webb’s 4.44 xERA is notably higher than that 2.98 ERA this year. That’s a bit concerning for a guy whose current 17.1% strikeout rate and 4.5% HR/FB rate would be career-low marks. The lack of dominant strikeout stuff and the potential for negative home run regression isn’t a good combination in a hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. 

Plus, this Phillies offense is lighting up right-handed pitching lately with a .368 wOBA, 138 wRC+, .239 ISO, and .845 OPS in the split over the past week. Philly also has a lower 19.6% K rate and high 12.0% walk rate vs righties in this recent stretch. The Phils are averaging over six runs per game over the past 17 contests. 

On the other side, we’re fading Phillies starter Taijuan Walker as well. The veteran righty allowed six runs on eight hits in his 2024 debut last weekend. That’s not a great sign for a pitcher who had a 4.20 ERA in three minor-league rehab outings while returning from shoulder soreness. 

Although the Giants don’t have great offensive numbers against right-handed pitchers this season, this is more of a fade of Walker until he proves he can still be a consistent effective pitcher. Walker started slow last year with a 5.57 ERA over the first two months and it appears he may be on a similar track this season. 

Expert Giants vs Phillies Predictions

  • Over 7.5 Total Runs (-105 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Over 4 Runs (-120 BetMGM)

Best MLB Player Props Today, 5/5