I get the question of “Do you win playing Daily Fantasy Sports and how do you win?” a lot. Well first off, being profitable in daily fantasy basketball doesn’t just happen. It takes a lot of work and the right strategy to win consistently. Good thing for you is that I will be doing all of the hard work this season, so you can profit off my knowledge (more on that later). There are a couple of key things that go into playing DFS on a consistent basis that doesn’t even have to do with selecting a team.
The number one thing I tell people is play double- and triple-ups (also known as “cash games”). In layman's terms, a double-up is when roughly 50 percent of the entries double their money. Triple-ups are contests where about 30-35 percent of the entries triple their money. This coincides with bankroll management.
Let’s say I’m playing $20 a night. Well, $10 of it would be spent on double-ups, that way all I have to do is beat 50 percent of my opponents to break even on the night. Then, I’d put an entry into a $5 triple-up and maybe even a $2 triple-up. The rest of that I’d put into a couple of $1/$2 GPPs (grand prize tournaments) that offer huge returns on my money, but are contests where roughly 10-15 percent of all entries win money. It is hard enough to just cash in these big events, yet alone win one. Since I play DFS hoops on a daily basis, it is important to increase my bankroll throughout the season. This is also known as “grinding." Each and every night of the season (excluding Thursday’s when there are few games) I’m slowly trying to build my bankroll by grinding out the victories in double/triple ups, while hoping to hit it big on a GPP.
There are a lot of head-to-head games out there, but those are mostly traps. Most of the head-to-head games out there are pros that are fishing for the guppy to dump money to them. It is a lot easier to double your money when you are going against 20,000 other entries, instead of one guy that knows his stuff. Speaking of high volume double-ups, I prefer those the most because I believe I can beat 10,000 people on any given night. Yes, there will be some really good players that will have a plethora of entries, but that only makes up a small percentage of the prize pool. To be profitable, you want to give yourself the best odds possible.
Which brings me to my next point: Look at the people participating before you enter a game. This isn’t a cop out, but another way to give yourself an edge. What do I mean by this? You can see who is entered into a contest before you register for said contest. So if I’m going to enter a 30-person triple-up where only 9 to 10 people cash in the tournament, I don’t want to be in a tournament where I know that seven of the 30 entrants in the tournament are “pros”. Pros are players that play in a high number of tournaments, write about DFS, or are just known names in the industry. Do I think I can beat them? Yes, but I also figure those seven guys are likely to cash in on those games as well, which makes my competition a lot harder. Basically, that means 23 other people are competing for only two to three spots for the money. If you’re doing this on a regular basis, then you want to give yourself the best odds of winning and playing in smaller tournaments with fewer pros is a good a way to attack lesser competition. You want to give yourself the best odds to win, and in any competition, the lesser the opponent, the easier it is to win.
Always play in a GPP. The entry fee doesn’t have to be big, but throw whatever lineup you use for cash games (50/50’s) into a GPP. One of the most regretful things you can do in DFS is to put up a huge number in a 50/50 tournament and not submit that lineup into a GPP. You will sit there and wonder “How much would’ve won if I put this lineup into a $2 GPP”? Listen, the stars have to be aligned for you to cash in big in one of those tournaments. Your players can’t get into foul trouble, you will have to hit on your value guys and your studs will need to perform like studs. Basically, everything has to break your way for you to hit it big in a huge GPP tournament. When that happens, you want to make sure your lineup is in a position to win a lot of money, not just doubling your entry fee. I usually have one main lineup I feel confident enough in to put in all types of tournaments. Then I have another lineup that is more of a boom/bust type of lineup that I will throw into a GPP as well. Unlike cash games, where you want to get the guys with the high floors that will guarantee you points, in GPPs you need some risky players that could go off and are contrarian plays as well. Since so few people cash in these types of games, it is crucial to spend most of your bankroll on the cash games.
Read the DFS playbook at Fantasy Alarm. Do I believe I know everything and that I’m the best thing since the internet (the term “best thing since sliced bread” is so 1900’s, the internet is the best thing to happen in my generation so I’m going with that saying instead)? No. But I will watch almost every NBA game -- sadly, League Pass is my best friend during basketball season -- as well as spending almost the entire day doing research, putting out content, following breaking news and everything else that goes into making a successful lineup. I’ll be spending my time doing the research, so all you have to do is read the playbook and put the recommended guys into your lineup.
Those are the basic things you need to know to be profitable in DFS this season. I will get into more in-depth strategy as we get closer to the season. Expect an early preview for the first two nights of the NBA season -- there only three games on the first night -- once daily websites release their pricing for those nights. Cheers to a profitable NBA DFS season!