Just two short years ago, the third base position was viewed as the dregs of the infield. Then something magical happened. Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado emerged as fantasy superstars all in the same year. Kris Bryant also debuted in 2015 taking the NL by storm. All of a sudden, this once maligned position was the toast of the first round. In some ways, it’s actually become more dependable than the former Rock of Gibraltar that once was first base.
The real question is: can you survive without one of these high end third basemen? Using Relative Position Value (RPV), we can assess the third base field and determine if owning these elite third basemen is a luxury or a necessity.
Here’s the RPV for the top 25 third basemen in MLB using RPV:
Player | FPPG | Raw RPV |
Josh Donaldson 3B | TOR | 534 | 0.450 |
Nolan Arenado 3B | COL | 519 | 0.410 |
Kris Bryant 3B | CHC | 517 | 0.403 |
Manny Machado 3B | BAL | 460 | 0.249 |
Kyle Seager 3B | SEA | 429 | 0.165 |
Evan Longoria 3B | TB | 411 | 0.116 |
Jonathan Villar SS | MIL | 411 | 0.116 |
Adrian Beltre 3B | TEX | 408 | 0.108 |
Anthony Rendon 2B | WAS | 385 | 0.044 |
Jose Ramirez SS | CLE | 377 | 0.024 |
Todd Frazier 3B | CHW | 375 | 0.019 |
Justin Turner 3B | LAD | 371 | 0.006 |
Eduardo Nunez SS | SF | 370 | 0.005 |
Jake Lamb 3B | ARI | 368 | 0.000 |
Martin Prado 3B | MIA | 356 | -0.033 |
Matt Carpenter 3B | STL | 352 | -0.044 |
Maikel Franco 3B | PHI | 325 | -0.117 |
Eugenio Suarez SS | CIN | 316 | -0.142 |
Josh Harrison 3B | PIT | 292 | -0.208 |
Nick Castellanos 3B | DET | 286 | -0.223 |
Travis Shaw 1B | BOS | 286 | -0.225 |
Yunel Escobar 3B | LAA | 273 | -0.258 |
Howie Kendrick 2B | LAD | 268 | -0.272 |
Danny Valencia 3B | OAK | 265 | -0.282 |
Yangervis Solarte 3B | SD | 253 | -0.313 |
The drop off from the top of this class to the second tier is significant! They are nearly twice as valuable as the next grouping that includes Kyle Seager, Evan Longoria and Jonathan Villar. So to answer our question: YES, you would be wise to target one of these top guys early in 2017 drafts. You can get by with Adrian Beltre and Todd Frazier types, but you will be playing from behind in league where you have to start corner infielders based on the lack of depth at first base as well nowadays.
Jake Lamb had a great start, but has fallen to the fantasy league average since the break. That makes him better suited as a high end CINF than a starting 3B in most leagues. If he can improve his stats versus lefties (.165 BAA) he can move up the ladder. Otherwise he may be ticketed for platoon duties. Matt Carpenter and Nick Castellanos had promising first halves as well, but injuries has quelled their early surge. Jonathan Villar has been the feel good story of this position in 2016. Owners were drafting him very late a one category stolen base threat, and ended up with a terrific bargain. It will be tough to peg his value in 2017, but you can rest assured it will vary from the “non-believers” to those who will overpay. Somewhere in between is most likely the right value.
If you fail to establish yourself at the third base position next season, you may be grossly behind your competition. Of the healthy players in the negative RPV pool, only Maikel Franco has the talent to pull himself into the positive end of the spectrum next year. The smart move is to draft a premium bat at third base early, then create an RPV advantage by selecting a Longoria or Rendon as your CINF. Not only will you be ahead in RPV in two positions on your roster (3B and CINF), but also simultaneously you will weaken both positions for your opponents. That’s how you dominate your league!
Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football and hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio.