The following is an excerpt from the 2015 Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is on sale now:

 

What Went Wrong In 2014

By Ray Flowers

Ebola spread across the Atlantic.

Korea hacked Sony for making a moving about killing their despot.

My love life.

This is a fantasy baseball guide dang it, so let’s bring into focus not the nights of tears on my couch with a bottle of ripple watching Hallmark Channel movies, but those men that stunk it up like a rancid piece of flesh left out in the backyard refrigerator for a week after the motor went out. For the most part, we will avoid talking about players that went down with catastrophic injury, but don’t think I won’t hit on a bunch of injury-plagued bums in this sucker regardless.

C - Joe Mauer, Wilin Rosario

A move to first, while still qualifying at catcher, was supposed to help Mauer regain his elite status. Not so much. Mauer hit .277, a career worst (career .319), with four homers and 55 RBIs. Those numbers don’t even play as a second catcher in mixed leagues. Just 31 on Opening Day 2015, there’s likely a significant batting average rebound coming, but he’s only 1B eligible now. I warned, repeatedly, about Rosario last preseason. My refrain was always “not enough fly balls and too dependent on sky-high HR/F.” What happened in 2014? His ground ball rate spiked to 50 percent (terrible), while his HR/F plummeted to a 4-year low of 13.3 percent. A rebound in both areas is likely coming in 2015, but this is not the profile of a 25-homer bat.

I feel fine bashing Fielder after he missed one game from 2009 to 2013. He missed 120 last year with a neck issue that was surgically repaired. If healthy, there’s no reason to think that he couldn’t replicate his 2013 numbers, though (.279-25-106). Votto’s lower half is a big concern as the injuries continue to mount. Just a year removed from hitting .305 with 24 homers. So much of last season looks “normal” except for two key areas: Votto posted a 10.7 HR/F ratio (18.3) and .299 BABIP (career .355). Hosmer was a victim of expectations. He killed it late in the year and into the playoffs by reworking his hand position in the swing, but do you buy that small sample size? He owns a 52 percent ground ball rate for his career. If he keeps doing that, 20 homers is likely a pipe dream, though that 6.8 percent HR/F ratio was a joke (11.2 career).

2B - Jason Kipnis, Jedd Gyorko

Multiple health issues limited Kipnis to 129 games. He had a three-year low walk rate. His .288 BABIP was a 4-year low. His HR/F ratio was less than half his career rate (4.8 compared to 10.0). After averaging 80 RBIs and 86 runs in 2012-13, he produced 41 and 61. Drafted as an elite 2B, he performed likely a moderate middle infield option. Gyorko was being elevated to nearly elite status by some prior to the start of the season (not us). He was an unmitigated disaster who hit .210 with three steals and 10 homers. Gyorko saw his ground ball rate climb to…

Underperformers at every position are listed in the 2015 Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide

 

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