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Tonight’s Strategy
If you take a close look at tonight’s slate, it seems like paying up for the superstars is just not a plausible strategy as there are so many mid-priced players in great match-ups, capable of putting up 40-to-50 fantasy points. I am not saying you should fade James Harden, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Anthony Davis or DeMarcus Cousins, but I am saying I believe you can win without them tonight.
While fantasy ppg numbers are similar across most sites, for this article I am using FanDuel numbers.
So, on two-hours sleep, and after a night of great Punk Rock at my bar, I bring you today’s DFS NBA Position Coach.
Point Guard
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Damian Lillard and Jeff Teague are my two favorite plays tonight at the PG position. The Trail Blazers-Pacers game has the highest expected point total (216) with the Pacers being -1 favorites. The last time these two faced each other on November 30th, Lillard dropped 56 fantasy points while Teague tried to keep up posting a whopping 43.
Chris Paul gets a favorable match-up tonight facing a bad Pelicans team in the game with the second highest expected point total of the evening at 213. Paul has had a few days’ rest and is running on fresh legs tonight against a team he dropped a double-double and 46.1 fantasy points on in their December 2nd match-up.
Even though the game is not the sexiest on the board, the Heat-Bulls game has drawn my attention. Especially Rajon Rondo. On paper the match-up is not great with the Heat allowing the third fewest fantasy ppg to the PG position, but the only team Rondo has scored more than 40 fantasy points against this season is Miami back on November 10th.
Jameer Nelson has scored more than 25 fantasy ppg in four-straight and faces a Magic team that allows the seventh most fantasy ppg to the PG position. His price is peanuts in comparison to the others and deserves a look.
Patty Mills is getting the bulk of the minutes for the Spurs and faces a Brooklyn team surrendering the most fantasy ppg to the PG position. He has scored more than 25 fantasy points in three out of his last five games and is my favorite value play at this position.
Finally, Shelvin Mack, or the “Mack Daddy,” is getting the minutes off the bench despite Dante Exum drawing the starts. He has the potential to come out and get you 25 fantasy points for the near minimum across the industry.
| FD | DK | Aces | YTD | ||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | 3PT/G | Pts/G | Reb/G | Ast/G | Stl/G | Blk/G | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $FA | |
| Damian Lillard | POR | IND | 24 | 35.7 | 89% | 2.6 | 27.6 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 1 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 46% | 18.53% | 41.4 | 44.3 | 41.6 | 42.7 | $9500 | $8400 | $6400 |
| Chris Paul | LAC | NOP | 23 | 31.5 | 90% | 2.1 | 17.7 | 5.2 | 9 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 46% | 14.24% | 40.3 | 42.8 | 40.6 | 41.4 | $9000 | $8800 | $6750 |
| Jeff Teague | IND | POR | 23 | 31.6 | 85% | 0.8 | 15.1 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 2 | 0.6 | 2.6 | 42% | 13.66% | 32.2 | 34.1 | 32.4 | 32.6 | $7100 | $6500 | $5550 |
| Patty Mills | SAS | BKN | 23 | 23.7 | 94% | 2 | 11.4 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 49% | 11.56% | 19.4 | 21.2 | 19.6 | 20.4 | $4300 | $4800 | $4000 |
| Jameer Nelson | DEN | ORL | 23 | 27 | 70% | 1.3 | 9.7 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 45% | 9.84% | 19.6 | 21.4 | 19.7 | 20.2 | $4800 | $5300 | $3900 |
| Rajon Rondo | CHI | MIA | 19 | 31.2 | 59% | 0.5 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 40% | 9.41% | 27.6 | 29.6 | 27.9 | 27.9 | $6200 | $5900 | $5200 |
| Shelvin Mack | UTA | SAC | 24 | 21.6 | 74% | 0.7 | 7.8 | 1.9 | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 43% | 11.7% | 14.9 | 16.2 | 15 | 15.2 | $4000 | $4900 | $3850 |
Shooting Guard
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Looking over the slate, Klay Thompson has the best of a bad situation match-up wise, facing a patchwork Grizzlies team. For his price-point there is not another player who has a 60 fantasy-point ceiling and he should be played daily until his price rises.
C.J. McCollum gets tons of shot opportunities each time he takes the court and has the fourth highest true usage rate on the slate for the SG position. McCollum nearly dropped a 40-spot on the Pacers in their last match-up, something I see him accomplishing tonight.
The mighty Cavaliers are allowing the fourth most fantasy ppg to the SG position and Nicolas Batum is averaging a little over 39 fantasy ppg over his last four. He should feast tonight with the Hornets likely playing from behind in this match-up. For value, I may even sprinkle Jeremy Lamb in a GPP or two, coming off the bench, just in case the game is a serious blowout by the fourth.
Although I am not really using much Harden tonight I will be going back to the Eric Gordon well. He had an off-night Friday, only scoring 23.7 fantasy points, but still has that 30 fantasy point potential for cheap. I also want a little exposure to the 110.5 implied point total for Houston, which is third on the slate.
Shawn Kilpatrick is averaging over 33 fantasy ppg over his last six games and tonight gets the best match-up on the Nets with the Spurs allowing the 12th most fantasy ppg to the two. As long as he remains a reasonable price, he is in play.
In a boom or bust GPP with Memphis all banged up, Tony Allen should continue to see plenty of minutes facing a Warriors team which allows the sixth most fantasy ppg to the SG position. Allen is averaging over 28 fantasy ppg over his last four and certainly has a chance at those numbers again tonight.
| FD | DK | Aces | YTD | ||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | 3PT/G | Pts/G | Reb/G | Ast/G | Stl/G | Blk/G | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $FA | |
| C.J. McCollum | POR | IND | 24 | 34.5 | 90% | 2.7 | 22.1 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 48% | 14.87% | 33 | 35.6 | 33.2 | 34.3 | $7300 | $6900 | $5400 |
| Klay Thompson | GSW | MEM | 23 | 33.7 | 89% | 3 | 22 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 2 | 48% | 14.52% | 29.4 | 32.1 | 29.6 | 30.9 | $6600 | $6400 | $5250 |
| Sean Kilpatrick | BKN | SAS | 21 | 27.7 | 83% | 1.7 | 16.7 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 43% | 15.67% | 25.6 | 28 | 25.9 | 26.5 | $5800 | $5600 | $5150 |
| Eric Gordon | HOU | DAL | 23 | 31.1 | 81% | 3.4 | 17 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 44% | 12.02% | 24.7 | 27.5 | 24.8 | 26.4 | $5400 | $5400 | $4500 |
| Tony Allen | MEM | GSW | 17 | 25.6 | 68% | 0.1 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 46% | 10.82% | 19.9 | 20.9 | 20.1 | 19.9 | $5000 | $4600 | $3800 |
| Jeremy Lamb | CHA | CLE | 12 | 16.9 | 80% | 0.6 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1 | 48% | 14.52% | 18.1 | 19.2 | 18.4 | 18.4 | $3800 | $3600 | $3850 |
| Nicolas Batum | CHA | CLE | 22 | 34.5 | 79% | 1.8 | 13.6 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 1 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 39% | 10.78% | 31.7 | 34.1 | 32.1 | 32.6 | $7100 | $6600 | $5300 |
Small Forward
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The Spurs are -14 favorites tonight with the highest implied point total on the slate at 112.3. To achieve that lead, some players clearly must have a big game. So here it comes -- I love Kawhi Leonard tonight. He has the second-highest true usage rate on the slate at the three behind LeBron James. Brooklyn is also allowing the third-most fantasy ppg to the SF position, while Leonard is averaging nearly 38 fantasy ppg over his last four.
Jimmy Butler is the other SF who is tugging at my heart tonight. If you play Rondo, I believe you play Butler. The Heat are allowing the 10th most fantasy ppg to the three and Butler drops 40-to-50 fantasy point games like I do dollar bills at McDonalds (I have five kids).
Somehow, I want some exposure to the Bucks-Wizards game tonight, which I believe will fly a little under the radar. The Bucks are allowing the seventh most fantasy ppg to the three, facing Otto Porter who has scored more than 30 fantasy ppg in five of his last eight games for a decent price.
On the cheap I have a feeling about Evan Turner tonight, especially if Moe Harkless sits again. The Pacers are allowing the eighth most fantasy ppg to the three and Turner is averaging more than 25 fantasy ppg over his last five games for under $5,000 on FD.
Bargain basement, huge risk, yes, Michael Beasley. In a GPP he is a viable punt play with Tony Snell just there to take up space. If he gets the minutes he usually averages over a fantasy point per minute. Which is DFS gold at his price-point.
| FD | DK | Aces | YTD | ||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | 3PT/G | Pts/G | Reb/G | Ast/G | Stl/G | Blk/G | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $FA | |
| Kawhi Leonard | SAS | BKN | 23 | 34 | 91% | 1.9 | 24.4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 46% | 17.6% | 39.2 | 41.3 | 39.5 | 40.1 | $8200 | $8300 | $6200 |
| Otto Porter | WAS | MIL | 21 | 34.4 | 79% | 1.5 | 14.1 | 7.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 54% | 9.28% | 29.5 | 31.1 | 29.9 | 30.2 | $5900 | $6100 | $4900 |
| Michael Beasley | MIL | WAS | 21 | 16.2 | 69% | 0.3 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 54% | 15.13% | 15 | 15.9 | 15.2 | 15.2 | $3600 | $3400 | $3700 |
| Jimmy Butler | CHI | MIA | 22 | 36.3 | 89% | 1.2 | 25.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 47% | 16.77% | 41.4 | 43.5 | 41.8 | 42.1 | $8600 | $8200 | $6550 |
| Evan Turner | POR | IND | 24 | 25.2 | 89% | 0.5 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 42% | 9.66% | 19.4 | 20.5 | 19.6 | 19.6 | $4600 | $4800 | $4250 |
| Michael Beasley | MIL | 21 | 16.2 | 69% | 0.3 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 54% | 15.13% | 15 | 15.9 | 15.2 | 15.2 | $3600 | $3400 | $3700 |
Power Forward
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Blake Griffin has had a few days to rest from his minor knee injury and should be good-to-go tonight. The Pelicans are allowing the third most fantasy ppg to the four and Griffin can put up 50 fantasy-points in a flash, something he has done now four times this season. He is also a fantastic way to gain some exposure to the 112-implied point total, the second highest on the slate.
In lineups without exposure to Griffin, I will be using Kevin Love again. He is averaging over 41 fantasy ppg over the last three and remains under $8,000 on FD.
The Power Forward is one of the positions I feel it is wise to spend a little on tonight if possible, so if you fade both Love and Griffin, I would use Anthony Davis regardless of match-up. If Blake Griffin sits tonight, Davis becomes the top play at the position.
JaMychal Green remains at a reasonable price and I really love the Memphis side of the Warriors-Grizzlies game tonight. The Warriors are allowing the 11th most fantasy ppg to the PF position, and Green is playing heavy minutes, averaging over 31 fantasy ppg over his last six.
In the Bucks-Wizards game I love both sides of the PF matchup tonight. The Wizards are allowing the eighth most fantasy ppg to the four while the Bucks are allowing ninth most fantasy ppg. This opens the door for both Jabari Parker and Markieff Morris to have huge games tonight. I have a strong feeling about the Porter-Morris combo for Washington and will use the two together in any lineups that feature either.
If you are looking for value, Thaddeus Young could snap out of his funk tonight facing a Portland team that allows the most fantasy ppg to the four. I would only use him in a boom-or-bust GPP.
Nikola Jokic, coming off the bench for the Nuggets, has been on fire the last two games. He’s posted 32.7 and 29.7 fantasy points on FD to be exact. The match-up is not great, but in a GPP, I will be running him out somewhere.
| FD | DK | Aces | YTD | ||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | 3PT/G | Pts/G | Reb/G | Ast/G | Stl/G | Blk/G | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $FA | |
| Blake Griffin | LAC | NOP | 22 | 33 | 75% | 0.2 | 20.7 | 9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 47% | 17.33% | 39.8 | 41.5 | 40.3 | 40 | $9000 | $8500 | $6500 |
| Kevin Love | CLE | CHA | 21 | 31.8 | 86% | 2.7 | 21.7 | 10.5 | 1.6 | 1 | 0.5 | 2 | 46% | 15.96% | 37.5 | 40.4 | 38 | 38.9 | $7800 | $7800 | $5900 |
| Jabari Parker | MIL | WAS | 21 | 33 | 77% | 1.1 | 19.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 46% | 14.63% | 31.3 | 32.9 | 31.6 | 31.9 | $6400 | $6400 | $5000 |
| JaMychal Green | MEM | GSW | 24 | 30.3 | 80% | 0.5 | 9.4 | 7.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 47% | 8.82% | 22.1 | 23.4 | 22.5 | 22.4 | $5400 | $5900 | $4450 |
| Markieff Morris | WAS | MIL | 21 | 31.8 | 83% | 0.7 | 13 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 41% | 11.44% | 23.6 | 25.3 | 23.9 | 23.9 | $4800 | $5200 | $4500 |
| Thaddeus Young | IND | POR | 23 | 29.4 | 55% | 0.8 | 11.4 | 6 | 1.4 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 53% | 10.38% | 22.2 | 23.7 | 22.5 | 22.6 | $4800 | $4700 | $4750 |
| Nikola Jokic | DEN | ORL | 20 | 23.6 | 79% | 0.3 | 10 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 52% | 11.28% | 23.7 | 24.9 | 24 | 23.8 | $5400 | $5200 | $4600 |
Center
Center is loaded tonight, I will not be doing the Boogie and, for the most part, I am going cheap.
My favorite play tonight is Greg Monroe coming off the bench. His price is on FD is almost a gift. He is averaging over 28 fantasy ppg in his last four while averaging 22 minutes. I believe Henson is on the slowly declining out as Monroe’s minutes will increase.
The more Portland the better, right? Right. I will have a ton of exposure to this game tonight and Mason Plumlee is one of the avenues I am taking. The Pacers are allowing the fifth most fantasy ppg to the center position and Plumlee can drop 35-to-40 fantasy-points when he gets hot.
Finally, DeAndre Jordan. The matchup is neutral but Jordan is anything but. He can go off and makes for a great late bullet in a GPP. I do want to point out that I believe he will be low owned due to his recent production versus price-point.
I still have love for Myles Turner to have a bounce-back game in a favorable matchup tonight versus Portland. His price keeps dropping and at some point, it will pay off. I must keep riding him here, much like I used to with David Ortiz when he would go several games with no HR.
| FD | DK | Aces | YTD | ||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Opp | GP | MPG | FT% | 3PT/G | Pts/G | Reb/G | Ast/G | Stl/G | Blk/G | TO/G | FG% | Usage | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | Pts/G | $FD | $DK | $FA | |
| DeAndre Jordan | LAC | NOP | 23 | 31.7 | 51% | 0.0 | 11 | 12.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 64% | 11.16% | 30.2 | 31.6 | 30.8 | 30.2 | $6900 | $6300 | $5650 |
| Mason Plumlee | POR | IND | 24 | 27.7 | 50% | 0.0 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 1 | 1.6 | 52% | 11.14% | 27.3 | 28.5 | 27.7 | 27.3 | $6100 | $5300 | $5000 |
| Myles Turner | IND | POR | 22 | 28.5 | 80% | 0.4 | 14.8 | 7.2 | 1 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 53% | 13.86% | 29.5 | 30.9 | 29.8 | 29.7 | $5900 | $5800 | $5500 |
| Greg Monroe | MIL | WAS | 20 | 19 | 85% | 0.0 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 50% | 14.34% | 23.2 | 24.3 | 23.6 | 23.2 | $5000 | $4400 | $4100 |
Good luck tonight, any questions email me JCFantasyAlarm@yahoo.com, or hit me up on Twitter @RealJerryColvin