2016 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: David Dahl

The Rockies have called up David Dahl, a potentially elite fantasy performer, to give him a shot to play with the club in Baltimore this week and in need of a designated hitter, a few years after he was selected 10^th in the nation (2012). Will the 22 year old lefty swinger, who brings a tremendous power/speed combination, be able to stick with the big league club long-term? If he does, will his minor league production transfer to the big league level? Coors Field should certainly help with that.

THE NUMBERS

Here are Dahl’s rankings the last four seasons.

THE SKILLS

Dahl is 22 years old and he stands 6’2” and weighs in at about 195 pounds. He’s a big time talent who is incredibly hot at the moment (look how en fuego he was at Triple-A). That’s a great place to be when you’re called up to the big leagues. Let’s break down the skills.

Dahl has a nice left-handed stroke that displays bat speed in spades. He also keeps the bat in the zone for a long time which allows him to spread the ball all over the field. He has quick hands that allow him to stay inside the ball nicely allowing him to drive the ball into the gaps to the opposite field. And this brings up a main point with Dahl – scouts think he’s a 25 homer bat – when he’s fully developed, but not necessarily not right now. I’m not stupid, I can plainly see the 18 homers he’s hit in 92 games this season, but I’m telling you his stroke doesn’t support that run. Note, that before the last three weeks he had hit 13 homers in 76 games. I know he will be in Coors Field, but his track record suggests he isn’t a 25 homer bat (he never hit 15 homers before this season). His swing at the moment suggests he isn’t a 25 homer bat. Scouts suggest that he isn’t a 25 homer bat. A hot run does not make a guy a big time power hitter.

Dahl has hit .310 as a minor leaguer, a mark that is slightly up this season at .314. However, if you look at his work at Double and Triple-A, and that covers 638 at-bats, Dahl has hit .298. Solid, but not quite a match for his career number. There has been some thought that Dahl doesn’t always have a plan entering each at-bat, but reports suggest he is much improved in that area this season. Still, his plate discipline still has some room for growth. Take a look at the raw numbers this season. In 92 games he’s struck out 96 times while walking 45 times. Players succeed with numbers like that all the time, but it speaks to his sometimes lackadaisical approach at the dish and a 24 percent strikeout rate isn’t something heartening even if it’s a passable mark in this day and age. Nothing alarming by any means, but just something to keep in mind if you blindly expect him to arrive as a .300 hitter.

Dahl can run once he reaches base. In 2014 he was a 20 steal man. In 2015 he was a 20 steal man. He would have easily been a 20 steal man this season if he remained in the minors. This talent, the ability to swipe a base, it was stands out in his game. How many outfielders are threats to go 20/20 at the big league level? Dahl is athletic, fast and not afraid to run.

Injuries need to be mentioned. Last season Dahl needed a splenectomy that was the result of a massive collision in the outfield. In 2013 he missed a good deal of time with a torn right hamstring which was followed by some knee tendinitis. Just something to note for the sake of completeness.

PLAYING TIME

As noted above – it’s unclear if Dahl will stick in the short-term or if he will be demoted after the club no longer has an added lineup spot (when they lose the designated hitter after Baltimore). Rumors are flying that the Rockies could be active at the trade deadline line, and if they do indeed some veteran pieces, like a Carlos Gonzalez, that would open up a spot in the daily lineup for Dahl, a future face of the Rockies franchise. Note that unless a trade is indeed made, that the Rockies already have CarGo and Charlie Blackmon to play daily in the outfield, and it seems unlikely that they would simply bench Gerardo Parra (ankle) who is nearing a return to the field (likely early August). The club also has Ryan Raburn (.764 OPS versus lefties) and Daniel Descalso (.892 OPS this season over 103 plate appearances) doing solid work as part timers. As with many rookies, Dahl had better start hitting, and quickly, if he wants to cement a spot in the daily lineup.

CONCLUSION

Guys who have the skills to go 20/20 are hard to find. When that type of talent calls Coors Field home folks get really excited. When that player owns the skills to potentially hit .300 people get pumped up. Dahl has concerns about his approach. He has concerns about whether or not he can sustain his recent homer surge. There are also concerns about playing time, but this is a skill set that excites in the fantasy game.

10-team mixed: Given uncertainty about playing time, and the plethora of players on waivers that have strong talent in a league this size, Dahl is a luxury and nothing more. He doesn’t have a spot in the lineup locked down. Talent or not, it’s hard to trust rookies in formats this thin if they don’t have a spot in the daily lineup.

12-team mixed: Likely available everywhere here, if you’re in a three outfielder league the interest should be moderate. If you’re in a five outfielder league the interest should be substantial. Dahl has intriguing skills and calls Coors home. That alone is worthy of a bid. Concerns about playing time should preclude a crazy high bid, but it doesn’t mean you shouldn’t aggressively pursue Dahl if you have room on your roster to take a chance on a player that you cannot be certain will be playing daily.

15-team mixed: A potentially difference making player is hard to find at this point of the major league season. Dahl is that type of player with his power/speed combination – and Coors Field. Concerns are still relevant, they don’t simply go away because a league is deep, but Dahl has the talent to produce significant fantasy production if he plays up to his talents. Check out this report to see how some of the experts bid on Dahl over the weekend.

NL-only: He was drafted in this format. If not, get a new league next season. If he’s still out there, bid aggressively.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).