2016 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Alex Bregman

Alex Bregman is a polished, elite level talent who is ready to embark on his big league career. The 22 year old righty swinger, who was drafted 2^nd overall in 2015, stands 6’0” and weighs in at about 180 lbs. There’s little doubt about that. However, there are questions about just where he will play, will he be out there every day, and how his elite level minor league production will transition to the big league level. Ray Flowers will attempt to answer those questions in this Player Profile (make sure you read this Rookie Review which speaks to how hard it is to have success as a first year player).

THE NUMBERS

Rankings before this season: Baseball America (42^nd), Baseball Prospectus (39^th), MLB.com (22^nd)

THE SKILLS

Look at the numbers this season for Alex. In 80 games of action this season he’s gone 20/7 while hitting over .300. Ain’t nothing wrong with that. Moreover, when he was promoted to Triple-A he was leading the Texas League in OBP (.415), SLG (.559). He deserved the move to Triple-A, and how. The bat didn’t slow at all once he hit Triple-A, in fact, it picked up steam.

Bregman has elite bat speed which allows him to barrel up the ball with great frequency. He has the ability to pull the baseball as well as spray liners to the opposite field. The owner of a relatively flat swing, the power output we’ve seen from him this season is well above expectations as most talent evaluators thought 15 homers would be his pique at this point of his development with a top end of maybe 25 homers as he learned to lift the ball in a few years. Despite the 20 homers he’s blasted this season it would be a mistake to expect him to hit the long ball at that pace in the big leagues (and don’t toss the Trevor Story comps out there – those two youngsters couldn’t be more different).

Bregman has strong strike zone discipline. He’s struck out 68 times against 76 walks. Yep, more walks than strikeouts and you know that I love that approach. As a result, his OBP is .088 points above his batting average, that’s a strong mark. Also, in this day and age, 68 strikeouts in 586 at-bats is terrific.

As a guy who ain’t very big, you will see the name Dustin Pedroia often mentioned when people look for a Bregman comp. He’s smallish, isn’t afraid to get his uniform dirty and he’s a team first guy. Like Pedroia he also doesn’t light up the radar gun with his speed, but he has strong instincts on the base paths.

PLAYING TIME

Bregman is a shortstop. He can’t play that spot with Carlos Correa in Houston.

Bregman cannot play second base. Jose Altuve is there.

What about third base? Sure, he could do that, but… Marwin Gonzalez is in Houston. Luis Valbuena is in Houston. The club signed Yulieski Gurriel giving him nearly $50 million dollars. I can’t see Gurriel staying in the minors for long, something I wrote about last week in this Daily Trends piece.

Bregman has appeared in 128 games at shortstop.

Bregman has appeared in 13 games at third base.

Bregman has appeared in three games in the outfield.

"We've been flirting with the idea," of playing him in the outfield manager A.J. Hinch said. "We feel like this is a good time to add him to a good team. We're rolling along pretty well and he doesn't have to come up here and be anything but himself and contribute at a couple of different position. We wanted a couple of extra innings at left field and in third base, and we accomplished that over the weekend. It's never going to be enough when you're trying to teach somebody a different position, but we feel like his time is now to come up and add whatever he can to a good clubhouse and good team and not have to carry the weight of the world on his shoulders as a young player."

Truth is that Bregman should be in the lineup most days, at least at the start, but unless he gets off to a hot start playing time could easily start to dry up once Gurriel arrives on the scene. However, the club could decide to move on from Evan Gattis at the designated hitter’s spot which would open up more playing time. The club did demote A.J. Reed so there is also playing time to be found at first base for the veterans to open up at-bats for Bregman elsewhere.

CONCLUSION

You cannot think that Bregman was called up to sit on the bench. You will find him, at least in the short-term, on the field every day for the Astros. So much depends on his ability to keep hitting like he did in the minors because of a crowded situation in Houston. The Astros have too much talent for everyone to play daily, but with slumps and injuries a constant battle for all, if Bregman hits, he will play. He’s polished and a “professional hitter,” and of all the players called up this season he likely has the best chance to succeed. Of course, “succeed” is miles away from “starring,” something it seems everyone thinks is just a given at this point (except for me of course). He could fail. He could be Howie Kendrick. He could be Dustin Pedroia. As always, keep those expectations in check, though I know you won't. 

10-team mixed: I personally don’t love the idea of rostering a guy like this when, sorry but it’s true, that he could perform like Howie Kendrick. I know no one will listen, but at least realize that if he starts slowly you should consider moving on since the Astros certainly have other options to turn to.

12-team mixed: Likely the sweet spot for Bregman. I would bet that he’s rostered in most leagues of this size, but if not, get into the mix. He’s likely to play multiple positions which would boost his value a bit, and that is one impressive looking, professional hitter.

15-team mixed: At this point of the season I would be stupefied if he was on waivers in a league this deep. If he is, breaking the budget is warranted.

AL-only: He was drafted in March, so I don’t know why I’m even bothering mentioning him here. If he wasn’t drafted, you need to find a new AL-only league for 2017.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).