I got a question Tuesday from a follower on Twitter, who wanted to talk about Jon Gray and his prospects in a dynasty league. My response was something like ‘if Gray pitched anywhere other than Colorado I would be super pumped about his future. As is, I love the skills but can’t give the full thumbs up.’ The user, @soumyajeetghosh, asked me why someone couldn’t have success with the Rockies. I volleyed back and said something like ‘tell me what pitcher has ever been an ace in Rockies history?’ He said Ubaldo Jimenez which got me thinking…
The Rockies have been a major league club since 1993.
Amongst pitchers who have thrown 500-innings in Rockies history just two have an ERA under 4.25: Jimenez (3.66) and Jhoulys Chacin (3.78). That’s it. TWO. The league average is 4.18 this season. In Rockies history just two men have ever been better than current league average.
Amongst pitchers who have thrown 500-innings in Rockies history there is just one man with a WHIP under 1.33: Jimenez at 1.28. The major league WHIP this season is 1.33. Only one man in Rockies history has ever been better than the current league average.
Amongst pitchers who have thrown 500-innings in Rockies history only two men have posted a K/9 mark of 7.9: Jimenez (8.18) and Pedro Astacio (8.15). The major league average this season is 8.06. Only two men in Rockies history have ever been better than the current league average.
Only two men in team history have more than eight complete games: Astacio (14) and Aaron Cook (11). Of course, this list includes home and road games.
Only two men in team history have more than two shutouts: Jason Jennings and Jimenez have three each.
In 24 seasons this team simply hasn’t had any hurler post back-to-back stellar seasons. Well, except for one man. Maybe.
Ubaldo Jimenez used to be good. In 2009 we won 15 games with a 3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 198 strikeouts. A really good season, but more was to come. In 2010 he posted the best season in Rockies history for a hurler with 19 victories, a 1.16 WHIP, 214 strikeouts and a 2.80 ERA. Those numbers are all franchise records. In those two seasons he won 34 games with a 3.17 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and an 8.43 K/9 mark. Those are really solid numbers, not elite, but really, really good.
The Living Draft Guide is here from Jeff Mans, Ray Flowers, Ted Schuster, Howard Bender and the team! Never out of date! Some further data.
In 2010 Ubaldo was 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in his first 18 starts. That is elite pitching. However, check out his second half effort in 2010: 4-7, 3.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP. That’s decidedly league average stuff. Let’s look at Ubaldo’s 2009-10 effort this way. Let’s remove his first 18 starts of 2010 from the two year look. If we add together his 2009 numbers, and his work in the second half of 2010 we end up with the following numbers: 19-19, 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.61 K/9 and 3.77 BB/9.
The bottom line with Ubaldo Jimenez… he was the best pitcher in baseball for the first half of the 2010 season. For the 2009 season and the second half of 2010, his heyday as the best pitcher in Rockies history mind you, he was just barely better than league average in terms of fantasy value. Just the fact.
Now on to Jon Gray.
Gray is only 5-4 with a 4.33 ERA this season. That said, I’ve been mighty impressed with what he has done. Despite pitching for the Rockies he has allowed just 12 homers in 16 starts (1.13 per nine). He has struck out 103 batters in 95.2 innings. His 3.01 walk rate per nine is passable. His 1.62 GB/FB ratio is really good. If he didn’t pitch at Coors half the time this would be a skill set to target. As it is, he has a 4.71 ERA at home, albeit with an impressive 1.10 WHIP. That’s right, his home WHIP is better than the mark on the road (1.23). He also has a 10.07 K/9 at home with a 1.93 BB/0 rate. Truth is, he’s pitching better at home than on the road (9.39 K/9, 3.86 BB/9) this season if you can believe that.
In the end Gray has a skill set that is very similar to Ubaldo. Lots of grounders, lots of strikeouts, lots of walks and solid success. However, solid success is different than fantasy stardom. Unless Gray leaves Colorado he will have good runs and nothing else as it’s nearly impossible to think he will develop into a fantasy star with “Rockies” on the front of his jersey.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).