KERSHAW TO THE DISABLED LIST

Clayton Kershaw will be sent to the disabled list with a back issue. He’s received an epidural to relieve the pain, and the hope is that he will be able to return right after the All-Star break. By the way, an epidural is, according to Ken Rosenthal, “typically is done for a disc protrusion that can push on the nerve, according to an athletic trainer I spoke with yesterday.” Notice I used the term “hope” above. According to manager Dave Roberts there is uncertainty as to whether or not Kershaw will need more than 15 days on the shelf. Ugh.

This is the first time that Kershaw has been on the DL since March of 2014. That season was the only time he’s failed to thrown 220-innings in five seasons as he threw a “mere” 198.1 innings. He could once again reach that mark this season, but as we’re hearing now there is growing concern with Kershaw, whereas a few days ago there was little concern coming from Dodgerland. Always be careful when teams talk about the health of their players. As should be clear by now realize they often - lie.

Here’s what you need to know.

1 – Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball.

2 – We don’t know for sure how much time he will miss with the back issue or how he will perform once he returns. Will this be an ongoing issue?

3 – I don’t care what anyone says, I still maintain that’s it’s flat out wrong to take a starting pitcher early in a fantasy draft. As great as Kershaw is, here we go again with yet another pitcher headed to the DL. It happens every single day of the season, doesn’t it folks? Let’s quickly look back at the top-20 starting pitchers taken according to preseason ADP from the NFBC.

Living up to expectations: Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Jake Arrieta, Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Jose Fernandez, Zack Greinke, Corey Kluber, Stephen Strasburg, Jon Lester

Failing to live up to expectations: Matt Harvey, David Price, Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, Dallas Keuchel, Chris Archer

Failing because of injury: Carlos Carrasco, Felix Hernandez, Sonny Gray

Obviously, we have to add Greinke and Kershaw and Strasburg and Syndergaard to the injury list now as well. And that’s a point to drive home here. It’s a LONG season. What looked great for you a week ago – your top-2 arms were Kershaw and Strasburg – now looks spotty. It can flip on you that quick.

You can never have too much pitching. Remember that every time you think about dealing your arms without getting any in return. You will likely need way more depth on the mound than you ever thought you would.

IS ARRIETA OK?

Jake Arrieta has been the best right handed pitcher in baseball since the start of last season. Over his last 49 starts he’s 34-8 with a 1.87 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 347 punchouts in 332 innings. Here’s the fact; you simply cannot pitch better than that. Period.

So why in the world, other than trying just to grab your attention, would I ask if he was alright?

Over his last seven starts Arrieta has a 3.38 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Huh. That’s not great.

In those seven starts he’s been limited to 15 outs, just five innings of work, four times. Huh. That’s not great either.

In three of his last six outings Arrieta has walked four, four and five batters. Huh. That’s concerning.

Over the seven starts Arrieta has a BB/9 rate of 4.50. That’s horrible. Is that a mere sample size thing? Certainly could be, yes. However…

no one seems to be talking about the fact that Arrieta has a 3.50 BB/9 rate this season. The league average walk rate this season is 3.14 free passes per nine. That’s right, Arrieta is worse than the league average in that category. That’s not good at all. How about this. The last two seasons Arrieta walked 2.36 and 1.89 batters per nine innings. That means in 2014-15 Arrieta made 58 starts covering 385.2 innings and in that time he walked 2.08 batters per nine innings. That means Arrieta’s walk rate is up FORTY percent this season. Why isn’t anyone concerned about that?

AARON SANCHEZ TO REMAIN A STARTER?

Aaron Sanchez has been wonderful this season for the Blue Jays. Through 16 starts the righty has gone 8-1 with a 3.08 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.20 K/9 rate and a 58.6 percent ground ball rate through 105.1 innings. That inning total leads the club this season, but here’s the rub; Sanchez spent the majority of the 2015 season in the bullpen meaning he was able to throw just 102 regular season innings all season. That fact is why the talk has been, since spring, about transitioning Sanchez to the bullpen by August, especially since he’s never thrown more than 133.1 innings in a season. Well, after holding the party line for months, they now appear to be wavering. According to Shi Davidi “…the talk now that he may be strong enough to hang in as a starter all year long.” You know my view on arms, youngsters and innings. Usually teams feel the same way. Sounds like in this case they may not. "I feel great," said Sanchez. “Overall, I’ve bounced back perfect between starts, they’ve given me the luxury of going on six and seven days in between starts at this point, hopefully we can just continue to do that."

Again…

In 2013 he threw 109.2 innings.
In 2014 he threw 133.1 innings.
In 2015 he threw 102 innings.

Over the last three seasons Sanchez has averaged 115 frames a year. If the Jays let him throw 180-innings this season (A) we don’t know how he will hold up in 2016 and (B) we don’t know if it will have any lasting negative effect on his arm. Time will tell, but clubs usually don’t let a youngster jack up his innings pitched mark by 65 innings, especially after saying all along that they wouldn’t.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).