2016 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Lucas Giolito

Lucas Giolito is a can’t miss prospect. Period. The soon to be 22 year old righty of the Nationals, who stands 6’6” while weighing in at about 255 lbs, is an absolute beast physically. He has two elite pitches, off the charts, as he works to establish a third offering. He’s continued to deal with some strike throwing issues but there’s nothing to dislike at all long-term with this uber-prospect. The question is, where is Giolito in his development as of this writing?

THE NUMBERS

 
Here are his rankings amongst the big three in all prospects in baseball.

Note that after being drafted that Giolito underwent Tommy John surgery. 

THE SKILLS

Off the charts.

Scouts grade players based on a 20-80 scale with 50 being a league average skill with a mark in the 70-80 range being a borderline Hall Of Fame skill. When grading out his fastball Giolito receives an “80.” It’s an elite pitch. Period. The fastball routinely sits in the mid 90’s with the ability for the pitch to touch triple-digits. Yes, 100 mph. Not only does the pitch come in hard, but there’s lots of movement as well. Plus, being such a big fella, he gets tremendous downward movement on the pitch which further augments the cheese.

As for the yacker, it is also an elite pitch. Not quite to the level of his heater, but that curveball grades out as a “70.” That combo is as good a 1-2 punch as any prospect in baseball. Period. Giolito’s curve is a 12-to-6 breaker that has tremendously sharp bit with hard, downward action. Both the heater, and the fastball, are true out pitches.

The third pitch, and the one he will likely need to dominate long-term at the big league level, is his changeup. That pitch grades out at a “55” right now, though most scouts suggest with continued refinement that the pitch could get into the 60’s. The change has good downward motion, like his other two offerings, and he continues to work diligently to improve the pitch. The pitch was moderately successful against righties last season allowing a .718 OPS, but when he tossed it to lefties he produced great results (he allowed a mere .587 OPS). Speaking of splits, he’s dominated lefties this season as well holding them to a .206 batting average, though that 2.21 K/BB ratio against them ain’t great. Speaking of the walk…

Giolito can throw all three pitches for strikes, and he has a nice, repeatable delivery. Alas, he struggled last season at Double-A with a 3.2 per nine walks rate. Unfortunately, the walks have become an even bigger problem this season as he’s walking 4.31 batters per nine innings over 14 starts. Hard to go all in on a Giolito with all the walks (the same issue that is holding back Tyler Glasnow – see this Daily Trends piece). Over his last 10 outings Giolito has walked a total of 24 batters in 55.1 innings, leading to a 3.90 BB/9 rate. However, in four of those six games he’s walked at least four batters, and all those pitches have allowed him to throw seven innings just twice in 10 games. That seems to be the one issue he’s really dealing with, the free pass. He had allowed just one in 3-straight games before his last outing on the 22^nd, a poor effort indeed (5 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 4.2 IP).

The bottom line is this. The stuff is elite. When he throws strikes he’s been dominated in the minors with a .220 BAA and 0.83 WHIP when ahead in the count this season. When he falls behind in the count the advantage favors the hitter, but a ton (.304 BAA, 3.37 WHIP). As also pointed out by BA, as good as his talent is note that his .231 BAA and 9.8 career K/9 rate pale when compared to guys like Tyler Glasnow (.171 BAA, 11.6 K/9) and Alex Reyes (.214 BAA, 12.1 K/9).

PLAYING TIME

The Nationals arguably have the best starting rotation in baseball: Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez, Joe Ross and Tanner Roark. Gonzalez has been bombed of late but unless he’s hurt it’s hard to see him being removed from the rotation. Strasburg is hurt, you can read about that in this Daily Trends piece, and that does open up a spot in the rotation for now. Will Giolito pass through that opening and ascend to starting with the Nationals? In the short run the answer is yes. The Nationals have decided to promote Giolito to start Tuesday against the Mets and Matt Harvey. Will it be just a start or two for Giolito or more at the big league level? Manager Dusty Baker admitted the team doesn’t know at this point. Stephen Strasburg is headed for an MRI and the results of that test might help to clarify things with Giolito, but for now his short-term outlook continues to be muddled.

CONCLUSION

Lucas Giolito has two elite pitches, and a darn good third pitch, which when coupled with his arm action and size paints him as potentially “the” can’t miss pitching prospect in the minors. He will bring the strikeouts with him immediately, and he should generate a lot of grounders. But whether or not the results match those or Danny Salazar or Francisco Liriano likely resides in his ability to avoid the free pass. As with so many youngsters there’s also the open ended question of how many starts he will make. Giolito is worth adding in pretty much every format in the land but note the two factors I mentioned. (1) The walks are a continuing issue. (2) There is no clarity as to how many starts he will make for the Nationals. Oh yeah, there’s also the fact that Lucas has already had Tommy John surgery and that he’s never thrown 120-innings in his life. Just how many frames do you think he’s going to be allowed to throw anyway?

Tremendous arm and makeup.

Tremendous talent.

Lots of uncertainty.

Here is some audio on Giolito. 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).