A.J. REED NOT COMING
I assume that since you’re part of our Seasonal Playbook Pro package that you read my work and try to, at least, take to heart what I write. We may not always agree on players, I’m not dumb enough to think you all take my word as gospel, but hopefully the precepts I try to lay out permeate your subconscious and help to lead you to sound decisions. I write that because, yet again, we have an example of a team that is holding back on a minor leaguer causing headaches for those that are stashing minor leagues. Of course, this isn’t you because you aren’t stashing rookies, right?
The Astros have an elite power hitting prospect in A.J. Reed (he is the top hitting first base prospect in the minor leagues according to most sources). Everyone is waiting for him to make his big league debut with some folks stashing him for months. Well, his call up ain’t close to being imminent. Oh he’s ready, even his own GM said so, but he’s not coming up now.
"He's making improvements and he's taking better at-bats and that's really all we're looking for is consistency of at-bats," Luhnow said. "Defensively, he's going to be fine. We're also looking for an opportunity. Right now, Marwin Gonzalez and Luis Valbuena are both playing well. We want to give Danny Worth an extended look, so these three guys will be sharing the corners. If anybody went down, certainly A.J. Reed would be at or close to the top of the list for guys to come up.”
Here is what A.J. Hinch, the manager had to say: "First base has been the hole for us this season we've had to fill the most. Sometimes players like [Gonzalez] get less acclaim due to the fact they are plugging a hole for somebody else as opposed for being the identifiable player for being in a certain position. From my vantage point as a manger, he's very useful and I know the team respects him appreciates what he brings to the table."
Here’s what you need to know:
Gonzalez has appeared in 33 games at first base this season. He has played second base four times. He’s appeared 15 times at third base. He’s seen six games at shortstop. He’s appeared in the outfield twice. He’s one of the most versatile players with the glove in the game. He was a good little player last season hitting .279 with 12 homers and 44 runs scored over 370 plate appearances. This season he’s hitting just .257 with a .700 OPS, slightly down from last season, but he’s been on quite the role of late (over his last 12 games he’s been white hot hitting .370 with a .420 OBP and .500 SLG). With production like that he’s going to be in the lineup every day. Last time I checked the Astros had two pretty good guys in the middle in Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve, so it will be corner or bust for Marwin.
Valbuena is a 30-year-old lefty who isn’t a very good hitter. At least we can say this – he’s not a refined hitter. He did hit 25 homers last season in 434 at-bats, and after a slow start this season he’s up to eight homers and a .780 OPS (a career best). He is what he is. He won’t steal a base, will hurt your batting average but will pop long balls at a decent rate.
Worth is a 30-year-old righty who has accumulated 311 plate appearances at the big league level. The last time he had 75 at-bats in a big league season was 2010. In that time he’s hit two homers and stolen one base while batting .229 with a .584 OPS. He’s a nobody and he will not be the reason that Reed remains in the minors.
Tyler White has been demoted to Triple-A. He started out hitting well but crashed and burned hitting .186 with a .302 SLG over his last 30 games leading to his demotion. He’s not close to contributing.
And then there is Reed. A slugging first sacker, the 23-year-old lefty swinger stands 6-foot-4 and weighs in at about 245 lbs. He’s a monster. Reed hit 34 homers with 127 RBI last season in just 135 games played. He also batted .340 with a 1.044 OPS. Monstrous. This season has been nowhere near as prolific as the move to Triple-A has been a bit more challenging as Reed has appeared in 55 games at Triple-A hitting just .256 this season. He still has a solid OBP of .343 and the .483 SLG is also solid, though not up to the expected. More concerning is that he’s hit only nine homers in 55 games (207 at-bats), a much slower pace than we saw last season. The overall game is solid, and he has more power than he has shown this season, but it’s not like his numbers are forcing the Astros hand at the moment.
The Astros entered play last night 11th in the AL and 23rd in baseball in OPS at first base (.721). They need help at first. Sounds like it won’t be Reed and that power bat though. At least for now.
By the by…
Alex Bregman was hit by a pitch last night in the head, but it sounds like he is OK. Bregman, a first round pick last season, has been hoped by some to be the third sacker in waiting for the Astros. In 57 games at Double-A Bregman has hit .304 with a .412 OBP and .571 SLG, excellent numbers (including 14 homers, 44 RBI and 51 runs scored). However, he too doesn’t look to be too close either.
"If we move Bregman up, we want to make sure that he plays every day at the right position and it doesn't impact the other guys we feel have a chance to help us out," Luhnow said.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Yadier Molina has hit .277 with a .717 OPS against righties this season. Over his last 10 games he’s batting .343 with a .352 wOBA. He takes on Jason Hammel with a .438/.500/.750 slash line over 18 plate appearances.
FIRST BASE: James Loney has a hit in seven of eight games. He’s also walked twice in his last three outings. He takes on Ian Kennedy hitting .438 with a 1.346 OPS over 17 plate appearances. Plus, I watched him take BP last week in New York and hit a lot of home runs so he must be good.
SECOND BASE: DJ LeMahieu has hit .391 with a .463 OBP and .691 OBP over his last 12 games. He’s also scored 11 times for the Rockies in that time. He’s opposed by Ivan Nova who has allowed a .319 batting average with a 6.75 ERA and 1.62 WHIP his last three games.
THIRD BASE: Evan Longoria has a .375/.444/.563 line with a homer against Corey Kluber (18 plate appearances). Evan has two homers in three games and four homers in eight outings.
SHORTSTOP: Xander Bogaerts has five hits in 10 at-bats against Chris Sale. Xander is batting .338 with 16 RBI in 17 games in June and is batting .417 with a 1.089 OPS against lefties. Meanwhile, Sale has allowed 40 hits and 20 runs over his last 29.2 innings.
OUTFIELD: Matt Joyce is batting .280/.400/.600 against righties this season. He’s batting .340/.446/.681 at home this season. For his career he owns a .802 OPS against righties. He takes on a tough one Tuesday in Johnny Cueto.
OUTFIELD: Over his last seven games Adam Eaton has hit .419 with a .441 OBP and .613 SLG leading to a .440 wOBA. He’s also scored seven times in that time. He faces Clay Buchholz who has been hammered by lefties this season (.317/.417/.420).
OUTFIELD: Curtis Granderson has at least two hits in five of 10 games. He’s also hit three homers in that time and has hit 13 big flies this season. Kennedy has been blasted by the long ball immensely of late… that’s what we call eight homers in three outings and 13 homers over seven games.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).