2016 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Jonathan Villar

Jonathan Villar has clearly blown away even the most wild of expectations as he leads baseball with 25 thefts and is batting .297 with six homers, 29 RBI and 37 runs scored in less than 70 games. He has been stupendous. He could slip in the bathroom tomorrow and break his hip and he would have been an excellent addition to teams this season since his draft day cost was nothing (his NFBC ADP was 317, and he was likely left on waivers in many leagues this season). The question now is – what happens moving forward?

MINOR LEAGUE NUMBERS

*DOSL: Dominican Summer League
 

MAJOR LEAGUE NUMBERS

THE SKILLS

Villar is as 25 year old shortstop who has tremendous speed averaging 57 steals per 150 games in the minors. We’ve always known he can run. Never was an issue were the wheels. Just look at his work the first three seasons in the big leagues: 42 steals over 658 plate appearances. Seeing him the league leader right now with 25 steals was always a potential outcome if he played daily, though admittedly the number still surprises a bit. He could stand to improve his 76 percent success rate – he’s 25 for 33 – but that’s a totally doable level of success. Can’t just blindly accept that he will blow past 50 steals this season, a pace he is clearly on, but it is possible given those legs.

Personally, I always like to see how a speedster wears over the course of a 162 game season. That situation is magnified a bit here for the following reason: Villar has never played 160 games in a season in his career. He’s never played 150 either. Wait, he’s appeared in 140 games just one time. Only three has he appeared in 125 games. Read that again before you just blindly accept that he will be able to continue to keep up his stolen base pace over an entire big league season. We simply don’t have a track record of him appearing in a full season of games, so being cautious about how his body holds up seems prudent.

Second, let’s look at his bat.

Villar has hit .254 over 845 big league at-bats. Over his minor league career he hit .261. So what makes you think he’s going to hit .300 this season?

Villar has a 12 percent walk rate. That’s a good mark for a fella with a 9.3 percent career rate. I’m not sure, at all, that he can end the year with a rate that is that high.

Villar has a 26.8 percent K-rate for his career, and this year he’s settled in at 25.4 percent. The mark in the minors has been 29.1 percent. He strikes out more than you would like for a player with this outlook an overall game. I do like that his swinging strike rate is down to 9.1 percent (career 11.2), but it’s a long season.

Villar owns a tremendously high .344 BABIP for his career. With his speed he might be able to sustain that mark. Alas, the mark is .395 this season. There is no way he’s going to keep that rate all season long. Trust me. It happens, but it’s simply not a pace that you should be expecting from any player, regardless of their wheels. Realize that the mark was .322 at the big league level heading into this season.

Villar has a 22.3 percent line drive rate. Again, that’s a doable number long term, but it’s not who he has been to this point of his career. The mark was only 19.5 percent at the big league level entering this season.

Villar has a 32 percent pull rate, 39 percent up the middle rate and 29 percent opposite field rate this season. For his career the numbers are 33 percent, 38 percent and 29 percent. Exactly the same folks.

He hasn’t shown the growth needed to hit .300.

He also isn’t likely to keep up his current on-base rate. Villar entered the season with a .300 OBP, below the big league average. This season the mark is way up to .382. As I noted the walk rate is up, but it’s doubtful he can hold on to that level. Regardless, the guy also owned a .337 minor league OBP, again, which doesn’t speak to a guy suddenly becoming a .382 guy, especially with virtually no growth in his overall offensive game.

Though he has six homers it’s still slightly dubious he will get to 15 homers this season. Only twice in seven minor league seasons did he hit 10 homers, and his high was 14 in 130 games back in 2011. He’s just not a homer hitter. It’s also extremely likely his 15.8 percent HR/F rate will come down, perhaps by a good chunk (the mark was 11.1 percent heading into this season). He’s not a homer bat, not with a 56 percent ground ball rate and 2.66 GB/FB ratio. His career marks are pretty much exactly the same at 57 and 2.54. Again, no growth.

CONCLUSION

Villar will continue to run. That’s his main talent. As I noted above, running at this pace is surprising. I’m also concerned that Villar has as a very short track record for games played. Running is tremendously hard on the body. Not only can it cause injuries, but the pounding you take on the basepaths can also affect your game with the bat.

Villar isn’t a power bat.

Villar isn’t a .300 hitter.

At this point you are likely best served just holding on. Villar has been a tremendous producer given the cost, and with middle infielders who can run at a premium, he should continue to maintain a lot of fantasy value. Hell, speed at any position is at a premium which speaks to the value Villar should maintain. Realize though that there are warts here, and it’s quite possible his bat could go into a funk leading to a significant batting average and on-base production regression. A .297 hitter with 15 homers is great. However, how would you feel if he was batting .267 with 11 homers? Likely not the same I would venture. The bat will slow, pretty much a lock there, and I fear his running might taper off a bit as well. Regardless, back to the main point, he’s been a tremendous value play, though if you can convince someone he’s a .295/50 guy there is no issue with dealing him, at all.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).