Zach Davies is a slight of build 6’0”, 160 lbs righty of the Brewers. A 26th round draft selection in 2011, he’s had moderate success in the minors, and the majors. So why even bother writing about him? In six of his last seven outings he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs with a 2.91 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over those seven outings. That’s some serious pitching from a guy who is likely on waiver-wire’s across the land. So who is the righty and should you care about him in mixed leagues?
THE NUMBERS
| LEVEL | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | IP |
2012 | A | 5-7 | 3.86 | 1.36 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 114.1 |
2013 | High-A | 7-9 | 3.69 | 1.23 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 148.2 |
2014 | AA | 10-7 | 3.35 | 1.26 | 8.9 | 2.6 | 110.0 |
2015 | AAA | 6-8 | 3.30 | 1.36 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 128.1 |
2015 | MLB | 3-2 | 3.71 | 1.21 | 6.35 | 3.97 | 34.0 |
2016 | AAA | 0-0 | 2.00 | 0.89 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 9.0 |
2016 | MLB | 4-3 | 4.29 | 1.24 | 6.83 | 2.86 | 56.2 |
Minors |
| 28-31 | 3.53 | 1.29 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 510.1 |
Majors |
| 7-5 | 4.07 | 1.22 | 6.65 | 3.28 | 90.2 |
THE SKILLS
The numbers simply do not stand out at all, both in the minors and the majors.
He’s not a strikeout arm.
He’s not a great stopper of the free pass.
He doesn’t seem to win many games.
Both his ratio numbers – ERA and WHIP – are barely better that league average stuff.
I could break all that down in more detail but I trust you to know, simply by looking at the above numbers, that the numbers do not show Davies to be anything other than just a guy. But then again, he’s been very productive of late so there might be something here. Maybe?
Davies has a 2.03 K/BB ratio for his young big league career. The league average since Davies began his career is 2.60. Ugh. K/BB ratio is also one of the better in season measures to suggest how a pitcher will perform the rest of the way by the way. This season he’s been better than last, but his 2.39 K/BB ratio this year is still below the league average and far from inspiring.
Davies owns a 51.1 percent ground ball rate, and I like that. However, his 2016 mark is 47.3 percent. That mark places Davies at 49th out of 121 big leaguers this season who have thrown at least 50-innings. It’s a mark that is better than not, but it doesn’t really impress.
Davies has a 27.7 percent fly ball rate for his career, though the mark is 31.5 percent this season. That’s still below the league average of 34 percent and a solid number. As a result of the lower fly ball rate he owns a 0.99 HR/9 mark, slightly below the league average. Because of a lack of pure “stuff,” I’m not surprised that his HR/FB ratio is 13.7 percent.
Check out his ERA-type numbers.
| ERA | SIERA | xFIP |
2015 | 3.71 | 4.34 | 3.96 |
2016 | 4.29 | 4.33 | 4.16 |
That’s a lot of similarity, and lots of not very impressive work.
PLAYING TIME
The Brewers pitching staff isn’t very good. I like Jimmy Nelson, and Chase Anderson has been throwing the ball well of late, but look at the top-6 starting options: Nelson, Anderson, Wily Peralta, Junior Guerra, Matt Garza and Davies. When Garza returns from his shoulder issue, likely next week, it won’t be Davies 
who loses his starting spot (have to think that Peralta is the one who gets booted).
CONCLUSION
Davies has been hot of late displaying a nice feel for pitching. At the same time, he’s not as good as he’s looked the last month and a half. His upside would appear to be that of Mike Leake. On the downside he could end up being Jon Niese. Be cautious with adding him at a high cost, but if you’re in need of a depth arm, someone you don’t have to blow your FAAB on or your waiver priority on, then you could add Davies now, ride him as long as the success lasts, and then move on to more skilled hurlers when the opportunity arises.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).