2016 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Jeremy Hellickson

THE NUMBERS

*Per 162 games: 12-12, 3.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 148 strikeouts in 193 innings

THE SKILLS

Hellickson is barely a .500 pitcher for his career, and despite the Phillies success thus far, does anyone really think they are this good?

THE RATIOS

Hellickson has a 3.92 career ERA. The league average since 2010 is 3.87.

Hellickson has a 4.86 ERA the last three years. That’s awful.

So how in the hell does Hellickson have a 3.68 ERA this season?

Hellickson has posted a WHIP of 1.36 the last three years. That’s not good and worse than the 1.30 league average.

We will dig into both those numbers by looking at his skills and see if he can keep up that level of work.

Let’s just say I don’t believe he has a shot to keep up either number.

THE STRIKEOUT

For his career Hellickson has a 6.87 K/9 mark.
The last two years the mark has been under 7.65.
This year the mark is a career best 9.19.

I say the following all the time – you simply don’t add two strikeouts to your career average, not when you’ve thrown more than 800 big league innings.

Hellickson has upped his career 10.0 career swinging strike mark to 12.6 percent this season. He’s generating a swinging strike rate of 34.5 percent on pitches outside the strike zone. That’s a career best mark and well above his 30.6 percent mark. In addition, he’s allowing a 62.5 percent rate of contact on pitches outside the strike zone, again a career best and well below his 68.0 percent career mark. Moreover, batters have a 73.3 percent contact rate on all pitches this season, again a career best (his career mark if 78.2 percent).

Simply put, batters are swinging at more of his pitches outside the strike zone than ever before and their missing more of those pitches than ever before. In fact, they are making fewer contact on all pitches he throws. He’s generating that level of success despite a three-year low in his first strike pitch rate while he has thrown fewer pitches in the strike zone than ever before.

Hellickson has made a change. He has replaced the four seam fastball by throwing more cutters, though honestly it’s not grading out very well. It doesn’t have great depth, it breaks less than a slider, and it comes in at 84 mph. It moves different than a fastball for sure, but at the same time it’s pretty much an 84 mph fastball with a wee bit of cut. It’s not a very good pitch. It’s one of the main reasons that I can’t get too excited about his apparent growth.

THE WALK

For his career Hellickson has walked 2.83 batters per nine innings. He’s posted a mark of at least 2.59 each of the last five years. This season the mark is 1.98. Huh? I detailed above how he is throwing fewer strikes than ever before yet he’s walking fewer batters than ever before? You really think that will continue?

THE HOMER

Let’s talk homers, which have always been an issue for Jeremy. Hellickson has allowed 1.22 homers per nine innings for his career. The mark was 1.36 per nine last season and is slightly higher, at a career worst level, this season at 1.41. All three of those numbers are poor when the league average is about one per nine.

For his career he has allowed a 40 percent fly ball rate (the league average is about 34 percent). The last two years he’s posted the best marks of his career at 36.5 and 35.7 percent. However, he’s also allowed the two worst HR/FB ratios of his career the last two seasons at 13.3 and 16.4 percent. His current rate should dip a bit, but he owns a career mark of 11.0 percent and has obviously been well above that level for 38 starts now.

THE BATTED BALL

Last year Hellickson had a 1.16 GB/FB ratio.

This year Hellickson has a 1.16 GB/FB ratio.

For his career the mark is 0.98, but again, over 38 starts now he’s been the same guy.

Last year Hellickson had a .291 BABIP.

This year Hellickson has a .293 BABIP.

For his career the mark is .274, but check out the rate since the start of the 2013 season: .302.

We know exactly who he is, and nothing has changed this year.

THE SPLITS

Not much difference over the course of his career with nearly identical numbers.

WORKLOAD

Hellickson has never thrown 190-innings.

The last time he threw 180-innings, the only time he recorded that many, was way back in 2011.

The last two seasons Hellickson has failed to reach 150 innings at the big league level.

Will the 29 year old righty change that run of questionable innings pitched marks? Seems likely. 

CONCLUSION

Jeremy Hellickson is J.A.G. as in “Just A Guy.’ It certainly doesn’t look like it now, not with the WHIP and strikeout rate, but I see nothing going on there that makes sense. He doesn’t have the stuff or skill to sustain his K-rate or his swinging strike mark. It makes little sense that batters are swinging at fewer pitches overall but are missing more frequently when they do. It also makes no sense that he’s throwing fewer strikes but his walk rate has gone down. He’s continually fighting the long ball as well, and his home ball yard isn’t going to help with that.

10-team: Streaming starter here. If you own him in this format start shopping him.

12-team: A streaming option unless your pitching staff is weak. He’s the kinda of guy you use for 10 starts and then move on from when you realize he’s league average-ish.

15-team: There is some value to Jeremy here, but it’s still limited. If Hellickson sees his strikeout rate regress, as seems likely, then his addition in this format starts to become spotty. When the WHIP rises, and he’s a league average type in the ratio categories, then you will note why I write what I’ve been writing.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).