Mike Foltynewicz is a 24 year old righty who is a former first round draft pick (2010). He’s got a top-shelf fastball but he often has trouble consistently locating it, and all pitches. This season he’s made five starts for the Braves with a strong 1.98 BB/9 rate. He’s not going to hold on to that. In 39 outings in the big leagues that numbers is 2.85 (see his 2.8 mark in the minor leagues). This is a big time arm, one that is far from refined at this point of his development. Also not a big fan of the 0.78 GB/FB ratio he owns for his career which has led to a ton of homers (1.70 HR/9). It could all snap into place, but I see him as more of a project in 2016 than a polished product.

Junior Guerra is 31 years old and has 34 innings of big league experience under his belt. His road to the big leagues is truly epic (give it a look). Even with his success this year he’s walking too many (3.60 per nine) and he isn’t going to hold batters to a nearly .200 average. Honestly, I’m not going to spend much capitol here. I’m trusting you that you’re smart enough to know that he’s just not an answer.

Colby Lewis was bombed in his last game for six runs while he recorded one strikeout, over five innings as his ERA rose to… 3.38. He’s long been pitching on borrowed time. Lewis is also 4-0 with a 1.16 WHIP this season, but come on now. He began his big league career back in 2002, and we know exactly who he is. He’s a fella who doesn’t beat himself with the walk, 1.83 per nine this year (1.85 last year), who is a poor strikeout arm (6.33 per nine this year, 6.24 last year). Even with all his success this year he’s still the owner of a terrible 1.41 HR/9 mark. He has no chance whatsoever to hold on to his 83.6 percent left on base rate either. He’s just a streaming option in mixed leagues. Make sure you understand that if you’ve been rolling with him.

Carlos Martinez might be in trouble folks. Over his last three starts lasting 15 innings the righty has allowed 14 runs while walking nine batters. He’s also allowed 18 hits while producing just 12 strikeouts. CMart has lost more than two full batters off his K/9 rate this season, the number is down to 7.13, while his walk rate is up to 3.40. The result is a worse than league average 2.10 K/BB ratio. Carlos still has a 1.21 WHIP and his 54 percent ground ball rate is impressive so not all hope is lost. At the same time, Martinez failed to reach 180-innings last season as shoulder woes beset him, and given his nine game start to the 2016 season I think concern is warranted.

Hector Santiago is coming off three years with an ERA between 3.56 and 3.75 though only once in those three seasons did he throw 150-innings (he threw 180.2 last year). Coming into this season I wasn’t high on Hector because of his worrisome walk rate, at least 3.54 per nine each of the last three years, and his horrible 0.71 GB/FB ratio that leaves him open to a long ball beating. Unfortunately for those that drafted him this season the worst fears have been realized. His walk rate of 3.44 would be a career best, but he’s also lost a full batter off his K/9 rate, down to 7.04, and that drops his K/BB ratio down to a below than league average 2.05. It’s a poor number. He’s also been battered with a 1.80 HR/9 mark, a simply ghastly mark. Ironically he’s lowered his fly ball rate this season to a three year best, and his 42.6 percent ground ball rate is a career best. It’s been that pesky HR/FB ratio of 15.1 percent. Note, his current 4.59 SIERA and 4.87 xFIP are virtually identical to the numbers he posted last season (4.50 and 5.00).

James Shields is 34 and boring. He’s also long been one of my favorites. You already know that. He might be 2-6 this year but he has a 3.06 ERA and has lowered his homer rate back down to a normal number (0.97 after last year’s crazy 1.47 mark). He’s cut the walks down from last year to 3.20 per nine, but that is still nearly a full batter above his career mark of 2.30 and that’s the main reason why his WHIP is once again 1.30. A little better could be coming, and he should be able to hold on to his 7.79 K/9 mark.

Steven Wright throws his 75 mph knuckle ball 76 percent of the time, and boy is it working. Wright continues to defy all expectations with his 8.01 K/9 mark, 2.52 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Knuckleballers infrequently pitch that well overall (R.A. has thrown numbers up like that before). I can’t see the strikeouts continuing, ditto the ratios (his SIERA is 4.04 and his xFIP 4.02). It’s also very likely that (A) his HR/9 will go up since it’s currently 0.45 and (B) his HR/FB ratio is 5.1 percent. Those two numbers could easily double as the innings pile up. Also can’t shake his 3.12 BB/9 rate which is scrapping league average. The knuckleball can be a fickle mistress. Enjoy it, he cost nothing, but realize the prospects for another nine games like this are very low.

DFS DIAMONDS

*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.

CATCHER: Stephen Vogt has a homer, five RBI and a .395 wOBA his last five games. He faces up and down rookie Michael Fulmer who has allowed lefties to bat .298 this season and Fulmer has permitted five homers his last four outings.

FIRST BASE: Paul Goldschmidt has nine RBI with nine walks his last 10 games. He also faces batting practice hurler Christian Friedrich who has been blistered by righties for a .323/.392/.443 slash line for his career.  

SECOND BASE: DJ LeMahieu hit second, with Trevor Story being dropped to 7th, Thursday for the Rockies. DJL has hit .400 with a homer and two steals against Matt Cain over 25 plate appearances, and he’s batting .328 with a .866 OPS at home this season.  

THIRD BASE: Sean Manaea has been a mess at the big league level, especially against righties (.346/.389/.500). Castellanos has struggled against lefties with a .763 OPS, compared to his 1.007 mark against righties, but Manaea has looked really bad thus far.   

SHORTSTOP: Brandon Crawford has cool hair. He also has a .505 SLG and six homers over 107 at-bats against righties this season. He has an .850 OPS this season on the road and he gets to take his hacks against Tyler Chatwood in Colorado. He’s also hitting .412 over 17 at-bats in the matchup.  

OUTFIELD: Jayson Werth has hit .367 with a 1.124 OPS in 33 plate appearances against lefties. He’s also hit .300 with a 1.041 OPS, including two homers, versus Jaime Garcia (23 plate appearances).

OUTFIELD: Jacoby Ellsbury never gets an out against Chris Archer. Well, almost. In 24 at-bats he’s produced 16 hits leading to a .667 average and 1.548 OPS. BvP.

OUTFIELD: Jarrod Dyson has a hit in each of his last his last six games and he’s scored five times with three steals his last seven games. He’s only gotten out once in eight at-bats against Miguel Gonzalez (.875 average).   

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).