2016 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Justin Smoak

Justin Smoak is 6’4”, weighs in at about 225 lbs, and was an elite prospect who was taken in the first round. He then embarked on validating that high draft day cost and for a couple of seasons he was thought of as one of the top-25 prospects in baseball regardless of position. Quickly working his way to the big leagues, Smoak proceeded to let down just about every person who drafted him for six years. In his seventh big league, right as everyone had finally given up on him, is it possible that he’s finally figured things out?

THE NUMBERS – THE MINORS

Smoak was a 1^st round draft pick by the Rangers in 2008.

In 2009 he was ranked as the 23^rd best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America and 22^nd according to Baseball Prospectus.

In 2010 he was ranked as the 13^th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America and 17^th according to Baseball Prospectus.

Over the course of 255 minor league games he hit .291 with a .402 OBP and .458 SLG.

He was frequently compared to Mark Teixeira as a power hitting, switching, first baseman.

THE NUMBERS – THE MAJORS

THE SKILLS

Smoak, at 29 years of age, has failed miserably to live up to expectations. It’s clear at this point that he never will. Still, that doesn’t mean there isn’t a usable fantasy option here. Consider the following data points.

Smoak has a .328/.406/.541 SLG the last three weeks. Check out those numbers. They are all elite.

In the month of May…

Smoak is batting .358, second at first base behind only HanRam (.362).

Smoak has a .443 OBP, second at first base behind only HanRam (.448).

Smoak has a .604 SLG, third at first base behind only Eric Hosmer (.623) and Steve Pearce (.756).

Smoak has a .443 wOBA, third best at first base behind only Pearce (.485) and Ramirez (.445).

He’s been elite of late. Period.

Alas, he’s not going to maintain a number within 20 percent of any of those four marks moving forward, so let’s get back to who Smoak is.

Despite being a switch hitter, Smoak has always been a candidate for a platoon. Here are his career splits.

OK, maybe he simply should be benched against everyone? He’s certainly been better against righties, but as you can see even his work against right handers provides a fantasy owner with nothing other than league average performance… at best.

The good in 2016 – he’s walking at a 16.5 percent rate, the best of his career.
The bad in 2016 – he’s striking out at a 29.4 percent rate, the worst of his career.

He’s also the owner of a 14.1 swinging strike rate, substantially above the 10.1 percent mark he owns for his career. That has led to a 67.7 percent contact rate on all his hacks, well off his 76.5 percent career mark. That’s a scary dip as well.

Smoak has a .418 BABIP in 2016. The mark has never, pretty surprisingly, ever been above .278. Clearly a massive dip is coming.

Smoak has a 0.86 GB/FB ratio this season, just off his 0.97 career mark. He also owns a 13.6 percent HR/FB ratio, just off his 13.2 percent career mark.

Smoak owns a .156 Isolated Power mark. His career total is .167.

Honestly, things look an awful lot like they always do… other than the BABIP which is simply at an obnoxious rate.

PLAYING TIME

The Blue Jays at times deploy Edwin Encarnacion at first base, ten times in 2016, but he’s most frequently being used at designated hitter (33 outings). That decision left Smoak to share first base duties with Chris Colabello. At this point that isn’t an option though as Colabello received an 80 game suspension for PEDs that will have him on the sidelines well into July. Things could go back to “normal” once Colabello returns, by that meaning Smoak and he could return to platooning which is certainly a concern if you own Smoak. We just don’t have clarity as to how the Blue Jays will play it.

CONCLUSION

First base is filled with flawed players who have power with names like Mike Napoli, Justin Bour, Carlos Santana and Ryan Howard jumping easily to mind. Smoak falls right in line with those types. When he’s locked in, as he is now, he can real off weeks of success. At the same time, we’re almost certainly talking sample size right now with Smoak as the only explanation of his success. Too many swings and misses, too many holes, too many years of failure. There’s also the platoon factor, Colabello factor which will likely become relevant once Smoak comes crashing back to earth, and that’s just another concern to pile on the list.

I own Smoak as a last resort right now in a couple of leagues so I’m rooting for him. However, I’m not blind to the blatant pitfalls that Smoak will likely fall into as the plate appearances pile up.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).