NUMBERS THAT CONCERN ME
Obviously the eight men with a BABIP over .400 are all in line for a drastic fall.
.449 | |
.430 | |
.427 | |
.427 | |
.427 | |
.424 | |
.422 | |
.400 |
A little bit on all eight.
Castellanos posted BABIP marks of .326 and .322 the last two seasons. His walk rate is down a bit this season, his strikeout rate is the same. A potentially devastating fall is at hand, an obvious position to take given his .449 BABIP and 31.8 percent line drive rates, two numbers no player in history has ever sustained.
Fowler is up .086 points in BABIP leading to a .339 batting average, .070 points above his career mark. He also owns a 1.036 OPS, this after 3-straight years under .780.
Murphy has a .439 OBP right now. His career SLG is .432. By the by, his BABIP is only .109 points above his career mark.
Marte has a .341 batting average, four points below the .337 OBP he posted last season. He has only four walks this season, lowering his already terrible walk rate.
Shaw somehow has a .427 BABIP even though his line drive rate is a mere 20.9 percent. He also has a mere 10.3 HR/FB ratio, a league average mark. Be very cautious.
Saunders has a .385 OBP. His career SLG is just .389. You really can’t hit .308 with a 29.1 percent K-rate. Saunders’ BABIP is miles above his career level, in fact it’s .127 points above his career levels.
Prado’s OBP of .419 is only seven points below his career SLG. He’s also failed to match his career .314 BABIP in each of his last three seasons. He’s currently only .108 points above his career mark.
Diaz has a mere .300 BABIP and .270 batting average over his last 11 games. He’s also getting on base at a mere .308 clip in that time. The end is at hand.
The following three men have failed to produce a K/9 rate of five per inning: Dough Fister (4.79), Mat Latos (4.98) and Jered Weaver (4.98). Can’t consistently win doing that.
Adam Wainwright has a 5.18 K/9 mark that is more than two full batters below his 7.54 career mark. Moreover, over his last 11 outings the mark is jut 5.69. Scary low for the former ace.
Matt Wisler has a 0.97 WHIP and has allowed just eight earned runs over his last five outings leading to a 2.51 ERA in that time. It’s not going to continue. On the year he’s struck out a pathetic 5.44 batters per nine. He’s also sporting a .197 BABIP that is .101 points below last season. He’s a fly ball arm that can be homer prone (1.09 per nine this season, and it could go up). Moreover, the guy is allowing a 14.4 percent line drive rate. No one in baseball matched that mark last season.
Patrick Corbin has a 5.77 K/9 rate, light years from his 7.50 career mark. He needs to find those lost punchouts. Also concerning is his massive 1.65 HR/9 mark, well above his 1.01 career rate. Pretty sure he’s not going to hold his 19.5 percent HF/FB ratio which is also light years above his 12.3 percent career mark.
Speaking of home runs…
Chris Young has a mark of 3.62 homers allowed per nine. Putrid. He’s dealing with arm issues.
Michael Pineda has a 1.06 HR/9 mark for his career. This season the mark is 2.18. His stuff is too good for that to continue. Period.
Scott Kazmir has pitched an awful lot of innings, nearly 1,600 frames in his career, and during that time his HR.9 mark is 1.01. This season the mark has doubled to 2.17. Obviously it’s going to come down, the rate has been under his career level the last two seasons, but he’s making some bad pitches at times.
And finally, a couple of numbers that really don’t concern me…
Max Scherzer has had a slow start to the season. After four years in a row with a K/9 rate over 10 the mark is 9.634 this season. After 5-straight years with a walk rate under 2.90, and it’s been under 2.60 the last three campaigns, the mark is up at 3.14 this season. Hard to think those numbers don’t stabilize with the innings. Pretty sure you can say the same thing about his homer rate. Owner of a career mark of 1.01 per nine, and coming off 4-straight seasons of 1.10 or lower, that 1.88 mark he currently owns ain’t gonna continue, though that doesn’t mean he won’t continue to allow a lot of big flies. It’s just part of his game.
WONDERING HOW TO WIN AT DAILY FANTASY SPORTS? JEFF MANS DESCRIBED HOW TO USE THE DFS PLAYBOOK PRO TO DO JUST THAT IN THIS VIDEO.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Yadier Molina takes on Matt Shoemaker who has been totally deficient against righties this season (.361/.452/.500). Molina is ripping up righties with a .341/.429/.459 slash line.
FIRST BASE: Let me play a hunch. Billy Butler has had a craptastic season. Might things finally be changing? Butler produced three hits Tuesday and now he faces Butler who he’s batting .365 against with a .519 SLG and 10 RBI over 55 plate appearances.
SECOND BASE: Doug Fister has allowed five homers, a .473 SLG and .780 OPS to lefties this season. Jason Kipnis takes on Fister whom he has produced nine hits against in 22 at-bats (.409).
THIRD BASE: Daniel Murphy is still batting a remarkable .398. He’s also produced a runs scored in each of his last three games as he’s produced two hits in each outing. In fact, over his last nine games he’s at 20 hits. Wow. He’s hitting .328 with a .945 OPS against Jordan Zimmermann over 62 plate appearances.
SHORTSTOP: Jean Segura has at least two hits in four of six games. He’s also produced five runs and eight hits his last four games and he’s hitting .343 on the road this season. He takes his hacks in Colorado Wednesday against Chad Bettis who has a 5.79 ERA and 1.45 WHIP his last three starts.
OUTFIELD: Charlie Blackmon has a hit in 8-straight games to boost his batting average .051 points. Blackmon has produced seven hits in 11 at-bats against Ray and for his career his slash line at Coors is bonkers (.331/.383/.497).
OUTFIELD: Lefties have a .379 OBP against the walking turnstile that is Yordano Ventura. That will give Jacoby Ellsbury a shot at success. Ellsbury has four steals the last three games, though Ventura does a very good job shutting down the running game.
OUTFIELD: Alex Gordon has a hit in 7-straight games. That includes 3-straight with a runs scored. He takes on Michael Pineda who has really struggled against lefties this season with a monumentally poor slash line (.349/.397/.559).
We forgot how good Addison Russell really is. Rubby De La Rosa is pitching like an All-Star. J.A. Happ is being called the best lefty in the American League… but, is he? Check out the Daily Dive Video.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).