2016 Fantasy Baseball Player Profile: Jackie Bradley

Twenty-six year old Jackie Bradley Jr., a lefty swinger who plays excellent defense and was a top-10 overall selection in the 2011 Entry Draft. The glove has always been on display, but the bat of Bradley was non-existent his first couple of go rounds in the big leagues. Bradley finished last season on a high note, sorta of, but then started off slowly this season. As of this writing though he’s hot having hit in 15-straight gmaes, the longest current streak in major league baseball. Just what should your expectations be the Rest of The Way (ROTW)?

THE NUMBERS: MINORS

• 303 Games Played

Rankings amongst all prospects in 2013 (31^st Baseball America, 32^nd MLB, 27^th Baseball Prospectus) and 2014 (50^th Baseball America, 33^rd Baseball America, 23^rd Baseball Prospectus).

THE NUMBERS: MAJORS

• 269 Games Played

THE SKILLS
 

As you can plainly see, Bradley crushed it in the minors hitting for average while getting on base. He didn’t exactly power the ball but he did manage to flash some stolen base speed at times as well.

However, his first two seasons in the majors were disastrous. Over the course of 520 plate appearances he hit .196 with a .268 OBP and .280 SLG. He was an embarrassment to the game.

Let’s move to 2015. Bradley went 0-for-11 in May. He then went 4-for-19 in June. July was a 1-for-10 spot.

Then it all changed.

In what will likely go down as the best month of his career, Bradley took August by the balls. Yeah, I said ballz. Bradley hit .354 with a .429 OBP and .723 SLG, a month that would make even Mike Trout blush. Bradley also had five homers, nine doubles and three triples while driving in 23 runs while scoring an additional 23 times. You really can’t perform any better.

Then reality hit.

Over his last 31 games of 2015 Bradley went out and hit .216 with a .308 OBP and .431 SLG leading to a .321 wOBA.

So let me ball park this for you.

Other than one month, Bradley was a terrible offensive performer for three big league seasons. Terrible.

Let’s talk 2016.

Through 16 games this season Bradley was batting .222 with no homers, a .271 OBP and .315 SLG. He was once again atrocious.

Over the final 15 games, all of which he’s produced a hit, Bradley has hit .382 with a .433 OBP, .782 SLG, four homers and 17 RBI.

Face it, Bradley must be bipolar. Either that or his hero is anyone who rides waves with their undulating up/down motion. Seriously, what do we make of a guy who has alternated two periods of greatness around abject failure? All we can do is to look at the totality of his work. I think that is the best way to go here, and before you say ‘But things have really gotten better of late Ray, you need to weigh that more heavily’ remember the following.

2013-14: .548 OPS

2015 May-July: .417 OPS

2015 August: 1.152 OPS

2015 Sept.-Oct.: .739 OPS

2016 First 16 games: .586 OPS

2016 Last 15 games: 1.215 OPS

There is no discernable pattern with Bradley. He’s been great and awful, alternatively, from the moment he stepped on a big league diamond.

Bradley doesn’t walk at a league average rate with an 8.3 percent BB-rate.

Bradley strikes out way more than the league average rate at 27.7 percent K-rate.

The result is a poor 0.30 BB/K rate.

He has a league average .300 BABIP.

He has a below league average 17.9 percent line drive rate.

He has a 1.47 GB/FB ratio that includes a large 49 percent ground ball rate. He’s not going to be a consistent 20-homer bat unless he maintains the 17.6 percent HR/FB ratio he’s posted since the start of last season. For his young career the mark is 9.7 percent, a league average rate. I’m very dubious of his ability to consistently post a mark over 17 percent.

Bradley hasn’t been great at getting on base with a .298 OBP. To be fair, the mark is .340 the last season plus, and that’s solid if he can maintain that level. His minor league numbers suggest he can.

To this point Bradley has hit a mere .217 with a .662 OPS against righties, and that’s over 619 plate appearances. That’s concerning.

On the plus side he’s a perfect 15-for-15 stealing bases. On the downside he’s averaged eight steals per 135 games.

PLAYING TIME

The Red Sox will run Mookie Betts out there daily in right field. We know that. In left it’s a combination of Brock Holt versus righties and Chris Young versus lefties. That leaves center field for Bradley. A strong defender, Bradley is needed in the outfield for his defensive acumen. If Bradley offers simply average offense it’s likely that he will be out there daily.

Make sure to check out Jeff Mans’ video on how to use the DFS Playbook on Fantasy Alarm.  

CONCLUSION

Bradley has to be rostered while hot, as in right now. Bradley has displayed the ability to carry a fantasy squad for periods of time. He’s also displayed the talent to sink a head-to-head roster quicker than Ricky Nolasco.

Bradley isn’t a speed threat.

As noted above 20 homers might be a bit of a stretch.

His ability to hit righties is in question.

Ditto his ability to produce in the batting average category.

In a 10-team mixed league he’s an OF7.

In a 12-team mixed league he’s an OF6.

In a 15-team mixed league he’s an OF5.

Bradley owns the talent to at least be “one” better in each setup, if not “two,” but with his nauseating track record we’re just not at a point in his development where you can blindly trust him.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).