Player Profile: How Good Is Yasiel Puig?

Let me hit you right over the head at the start.

I don’t trust Yasiel Puig at all.

He’s selfish, most don’t like him, and arrogant.

He’s also tremendously talented albeit injury prone.

How talented is Puig? Check it. Puig has 1,396 plate appearances to this point of his career. Let’s compare those three seasons to the first three seasons of the career of Bryce Harper. Yeah, I said Bryce Harper. Notice that I’m comparing those 1,396 plate appearance of Puig to the first 1,396 career plate appearances of Harper. Prepare to be stunned.

* Note this comparison was first brought to the fore by my SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio co-host Kyle Elfrink.

How shocked are you? Puig is BETTER than Harper in AVG/OBP/SLG and RBI while it’s a virtual toss up in homers, runs and steals. Face it. Through their first 1,396 big league plate appearances Yasiel Puig has been a better offensive performer than Bryce Harper.

Of course Puig is two years older, but still give me that you’re shocked by what you’ve read, right?

I almost feel like pulling a microphone drop and just ending the article with that.

Should I?

Probably.

But you know me. I’ll add some more.

Follow this link to check out the entire Player Profile Series.

Puig missed half the season last year with lower body issues, primarily his hamstrings barking. He’s already dealt with some hiccups this season with the hamstrings and this brings up the legitimate concern folks have with Puig, that he doesn’t really care, doesn’t train hard enough, that he just skates by because of his talent. Like I noted above, there are all kinds of concerns with Puig not the least of which is his entitled attitude. As for how that affects him on the field… we can only infer. Take a look at his running. After stealing 11 bases each of his first two seasons he fell to just three last season. Will he run in 2016? Maybe, but he’s also been woefully ineffective whenever he has run with a deplorable 58 percent success rate on his 43 career steal attempts.

As for his bat… he owns a mere 16.6 percent line drive rate which is crazy low for his talent level and it belies his massive .353 BABIP. Hard, nearly impossible, to think he can continue along with those two numbers. That line drive rate has to go up or his BABIP is likely to go down.

Puig has a 20 homer bat, but he’s also a ground baller. For his career he owns a 49.5 percent ground ball rate leading to a 1.46 GB/FB ratio. With numbers like that it’s hard to envision Puig doing anything other than barely scraping the 20 homer level. Puig owns a solid 14.7 percent HR/F ratio, but that’s not a big enough number for him to see a 30 homer season, ala the breakout of Harper, unless he greatly increases his league average 33.9 percent fly ball rate, something that is unlikely to occur.

A positive for Puig is that he really doesn’t seem to care where he is playing. Take a look at his career marks. They tell the tale.

He’s virtually the same hitter everywhere.

So what do we make of Puig? There aren’t many who can compete with his talent. There are may not be another elite talent that has as many questions as Puig does. Can he stay healthy? Can he lift the ball more? Will he return to running on the base paths? Can he avoid being punched out by angry teammates? Can he avoid the off the field temptations that threaten to derail his career?

Puig is an immense talent who could end the year as a top-10 outfielder. He’s also someone that you should be hoping finishes the year as a top-20 outfielder. There are too many questions to legitimately expect more. 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).