What do you think about Trevor Story now? I don't like how u play it safe all the time. Ur very risk averse to a fault.
- @mra092
This is one of a series of tweets (@baseballguys) that are coming in on a daily basis. I’m an idiot. I don’t understand baseball. I’m underestimating a young player. I hate rookies. I don’t like youngsters. I hate cats. Well, all but that last one is something I see frequently at this point.
I wrote about Trevor Story last week. I laid out my thoughts. I laid out the thoughts/rankings of the best in the business when it comes to prospects. Not my thoughts, but there’s, with the consensus being that Story is barely a top-10 prospect with the Rockies. Not in baseball. Not at his position. On his team. He’s gone out and hit three homers since then, so either (A) people read what I wrote and don’t care or (B) haven’t read what I wrote. Please do yourself a favor before you move forward and click in the link and read the report. It’s a good starting point for this discussion.
1 – I laid out the details of who Story is, and isn’t, in the link above.
2 – I’ve said that a successful season in 2016 for Story would make him Asdrubal Cabrera (Player Profile). Before you say ‘Come on Ray, Cabrera stinks’ note the facts. Over the last five seasons an average effort from ACab has resulted in a .259-17-69-73-10 line. Do you know how many shortstop eligible players hit all five of those numbers last season? The answer is none. I’m serious. I didn’t make the comparison just cause, I said it cause I believe it to be accurate. IF Story can even get enough work to make those numbers a legitimate outcome.
3 – On the Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius210, XM87, M-F at 7 PM EDT) Tuesday we had on Eno Sarris of Fangraphs as a guest. I posed the ‘what do you think of Story in 2016?’ question. His response, totally nonchalant by the way, was that he would expect story to hit .250 with 20 homers if he played all year long. Note how close his off-the-cuff prediction dovetails nearly exactly with my ACab prediction.
4 – It’s been two games folks. Two. ‘That’s not true Ray. Story was also this great in Spring Training meaning he’s been a star over 22 games.’ I will admit that he has been a star over 22 games. However, I would like to offer the following data points that should be help to bring things into context. Realize that the below numbers were posted in “real” games, not in meaningless Spring Training efforts. All young players, none being established stars.
April 2015 | AVG | HR | RBI | RUNS | SB |
Devon Travis | .325 | 6 | 19 | 17 | 1 |
Jose Iglesias | .377 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 5 |
Freddy Galvis | .355 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 0 |
Adeiny Hechavarria | .321 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 1 |
Jake Marisnick | .379 | 2 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
How did those players end up in 2015?
Final 2015 | AVG | HR | RBI | RUNS | SB |
Devon Travis | .304 | 8 | 35 | 38 | 3 |
Jose Iglesias | .300 | 2 | 23 | 44 | 11 |
Freddy Galvis | .263 | 7 | 50 | 63 | 10 |
Adeiny Hechavarria | .281 | 5 | 48 | 54 | 7 |
Jake Marisnick | .236 | 9 | 36 | 46 | 24 |
Let’s look back to the 2014 season.
April 2014 | AVG | HR | RBI | RUNS | SB |
Dayan Viciedo | .348 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 0 |
Conor Gillaspie | .302 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 0 |
Chris Owings | .313 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
Yangervis Solarte | .303 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 0 |
And the final results
Final 2014 | AVG | HR | RBI | RUNS | SB |
Dayan Viciedo | .265 | 14 | 56 | 43 | 0 |
Conor Gillaspie | .282 | 7 | 57 | 50 | 0 |
Chris Owings | .261 | 6 | 26 | 34 | 8 |
Yangervis Solarte | .260 | 10 | 48 | 56 | 0 |
One more note, a famous on at that...
In 2006 Chris Shelton hit two homers on Opening Day (like Story).
He hit four homers in three games (like Story).
Over his first 13 games he went deep nine times.
Over his final 102 games Shelton hit seven homers to finish with 16 homers.
Random yes, but hopefully instructive, especially with the batting averages and steals.
5 – Finally, I implore you to read The Expectation Game. I think it will really be worth five minutes of your time.
Maybe I will be wrong on Story. It’s certainly possible. But before you bash me please at least do me the favor of strongly considering all the data at your disposal, not just 60 at-bats in Spring Training and a couple of regular season games.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).