Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde is a story written by Robert Louis Stevenson in 1886 (you’ve probably never read the book but you’ve certainly see a movie adaptation at some point). In the story, the Doctor is a good man during the day, but when he takes a serum he turns into the fiend known as Mr. Hyde. I bring this up because the Pirates have a man on the hill than can be both good, and evil to a fantasy owner, and that is Francisco Liriano.

On Opening Day Dr. Jekyll showed up as Liriano dominated the Cardinals on his way to six scoreless innings. Liriano also struck out 10 batters, a Pirates Opening Day record, while allowing just three hits. "I thought Frankie went out and pitched a good ballgame," Pirates manager Clint Hurdle said. "Frankie stayed aggressive and pitched his ballgame. However, even with all that goodness Liriano still walked five batters, an unacceptable total. He was both Jekyll and Hyde, despite the success, on day one.

Who is Liriano moving forward? Let’s look back before we look forward.

Liriano is 32 years old and a dominating lefty. For his career he’s averaged 9.29 strikeouts per nine, a number that he bested last season at 9.88. That’s the fantastic part of his game.

Liriano also gets mad grounders with a strong 49.2 percent mark for his career, a level he has blown past in each of the past three seasons. He’s an elite ground ball arm.

However…

Liriano cannot be trusted and he’s not an elite option.

Here’s why.

Liriano walks too many batters. For his career the mark is 3.82 per nine. Last season, the best of his career, the rate was 3.38 per nine, his best mark since 2006. That walk rate is still roughly a half batter above the league average. Not good.

Because of all those walks Liriano owns a career 1.31 WHIP. That’s a league average number. Yes, in two of the last three seasons the mark has been under 1.30 at 1.22 and 1.21, but note that in 2014 the number was 1.30. There’s league average work lurking here.

But the biggest and most obvious reason that Liriano isn’t an elite option on the bump is --- that he simply cannot be trusted to take the ball 30+ times each year. Liriano has made 30 starts only one time in five years. Sure it was last year, but I don’t care. One year doesn’t erase a decade of balling. Think of it this way. How many times in the last five seasons had Liriano thrown 165 innings? The answer is once in five years. How about this to really drive it home; how many times in his career has Liriano thrown 165-innings in back-to-back seasons? The answer is astounding. It’s ZERO. He’s never thrown 165 frames back-to-back in a career that spans 10 seasons.

A final note. Because of all the missed time Liriano has averaged 10 victories the last two seasons. Moreover, in three of the last five seasons he has been in the single digits in the win column.

Liriano, when healthy, is a must start.

However, Liriano isn’t someone you should be looking to add in a trade at the moment as it’s nearly 100 percent certain that whatever you are being asked to pay is simply too much for a guy that you “know” won’t be able to reach 165 innings this season. Conversely, if you own Liriano and someone is willing to pay for him as if he’s a top-25 starting pitcher than the Oracle’s advice is to trade away.

 

Follow this link to check out the entire Player Profile Series as the 2016 season begins.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).