Ray’s Ramblings: Could Kris Bryant Fail?

This article was sparked by the following question from @fansportangel.
-- Anyone else worried about Kris Bryant's 33% K-Rate or .378 BABIP? Can he hit 270? Breaking pitches until July? 

Finally, someone hit it.

Honestly, I’ve been waiting for someone to pose this question so I could write the following. Glad you did fansportagel.  

Bryant was a monster last season hitting .275 with 26 homers, 99 RBI, 87 runs scored and 13 steals. Honestly, his first season in the big leagues couldn’t have gone much better. But around the greatness, and you know me I like to focus on the negative, there are a few issues to be concerned with.

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1 – Everyone said Bryant was a lock to hit 30+ homers. Well, he hit 26. I would bet that 30 comes this season, but just wanted to point out that the one thing everyone was convinced that Bryant would do last season, he didn’t.

2 – The RBI and runs should remain strong as long as he plays daily, not much to be worried about there.

3 – The steals could regress. Not only did he fail to show that stolen base aptitude in the minors, the 17 times he ran last season might also regress if his on-base percentage does as it could. Let’s talk his approach.

4 – Bryant hit .275 last season. Solid mark, and one that everyone seems to think that he will repeat or better in 2016. Is that fair? Well…

Bryant posted a 20.5 percent line drive rate. That’s a league average number so no issue there.

Bryant had a mere 0.76 GB/FB ratio last season thanks to a 45.2 percent fly ball rate. Given that the league average is 34 percent in the fly ball column it’s obvious that he hits a lot of fly ball. What type of batted ball ends up an out most often? Yep, the fly ball. Let’s look at fly balls and BABIP for a second.

Bryant had a .378 BABIP that was 5^th in baseball last season. None of the four men above him in BABIP had a fly ball rate above 35 percent in 2015. Moreover, no one with a mark in the BABIP column of .340 or better, and there were 22 such men, had a mark over 40 percent in the fly ball column other than Bryant. It’s tough to hit so many balls in the air and to post a BABIP that high (21 men posted BABIP marks of .340 or higher in 2014 and only one man had a mark over 41.5 percent – Mike Trout at 47.2 percent).

Speaking of BABIP – you can’t post a mark of .378 year after year. Doesn’t happen. Remember, only five men posted a mark that high in 2015. In 2014 there wasn’t a single player in baseball that hit that .378 mark. In 2013 there were only three such batters. Facts are facts. People don’t consistently post marks over .375. They just don’t. Amongst players who have at least 1,000 plate appearances the last two seasons only one man has a mark over .365 – that’s Paul Goldschmidt at .376. Bryant’s BABIP will fall in 2016, perhaps substantially, especially if he doesn’t up his league average line drive rate and/or drop his fly ball rate a bit.

Now the strikeouts.

Bryant struck out 199 times last season. That’s a terrible number. It’s also a number that marks his ability to hold on to a .275 in doubt. 

In 2015 five men struck out 180 times. Two of them hit better than .265.

In 2014 five men struck out 180 times. One of them hit better than .265.

In 2013 seven men struck out 180 times. One of them hit better than .265.

Batters simply don’t swing and miss that often and hit .275.

A final note. Here are Bryant’s marks on the different pitches last season.

The data suggests that if he was fed off-speed stuff his average would suffer a bit, and maybe his power a tad.

Kris Bryant will be a strong option yet again in 2016. I wouldn’t be shocked if he hit 30 homers, stole 10 bases and drove in 100 runs. He won’t fail in 2016. At the same time, it is fair to wonder if his batting average will fall. If he repeats the approach that we saw last season, I would expect his batting average to fall. It’s quite possible that his talent wins out and he refutes the data we’ve come to know and love. However, if I had to put a number on it, I would suggest that Bryant finishing the year closer to .250 than .275 in 2016 isn’t as far-fetched as some would lead you to believe. Hate to say it for those of you spending a first round draft pick on Bryant, but you might be able to roster very similar production from Kyle Seager five rounds later on draft day.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).