Do Spring Training stats matter? That’s a long running question that, honestly, doesn’t have a clear cut answer. Players are working on things. Maybe they are trying to hit the ball the other way. Perhaps they are working on pulling it. Maybe a hurler is working on the inside part of the plate or on honing a new pitch. Beyond that there’s this – who are the established major leaguers battling against? Is the MLB vet facing Double-A batters? Is that MLB hitter ripping home runs of a Triple-A arm? Questions such as those are part of the ongoing struggle to evaluate spring numbers.
A report at MLB.com believes that Spring Training numbers matter. At least a little.
A report over at Fangraphs suggested that substantial spring growth might portend success.
Maybe spring stats matter when it comes to the strikeout?
Dan Rosenheck wrote an article for SABR titled “Spring Training Stats Matter – Yes They Do.”
The bottom line appears to be that we can glean things from Spring. Probably. We think.
HERE IS THE LINK TO THE ARTICLE ON SPRING TRAINING: HITTERS.
POSITIVE
Patrick Corbin has looked sharp for the D’backs this spring with 24 strikeouts and there walks over 21 innings. He’s also held batters to a .222 average this spring as well while allowing just one homer. Check out his Player Profile for more on the lefty.
Anthony DeSclafani has performed for the Reds at optimal levels – in some respects. Not only does he have a 1.40 BB/9 rate but he’s also well above a K per inning pitched. He’s not holding on to either of those numbers this season, nope, but he is a cheap option on draft day that has a fairly bright future.
Kyle Gibson has brought the strikeout ball this spring with a 9.68 K/9 mark. Unfortunately, he’s also walked 3.06 batters per nine innings. Still, if he could somehow hold on to a K/9 rate within two batters of that mark then he’s going to be one effective hurler this season. See his Player Profile.
No pitcher has been better at holding down hitters than Kyle Hendricks who leads the way with a .512 OPS against. See his Player Profile for more.
Phil Hughes is doing the good Phil Hughes right now. He’s walked just 0.55 batters per nine innings while limiting batters to a .598 OPS. He tantalizes all the time, and usually disappoints.
Drew Hutchison allowed 5.12 hits per nine innings, the second best mark in baseball. His reward? A demotion to Triple-A as the Blue Jays decided to start Aaron Sanchez instead.
Joe Kelly has impressed for the Red Sox with a 1.35 ERA and 1. 20 WHIP over 20 innings. He’s also brought the strikeout arm with 18 punchouts.
Erasmo Ramirez has a 15.00 K/BB ratio. Nuts. Three men are better which is even crazier: Bartolo Colon 20.0, Noah Syndergaard 19.0 and Carlos Carrasco 17.0.
Luis Severino has a 10.47 K/9 rate this spring. Love that. I like the 1.65 per nine walk rate even more. Bursting with talent is he.
Through 16 innings Ervin Santana has 15 strikeouts and a 0.75 WHIP for the Twins.
Drew Smyly has been the ballz. Here are his numbers in spring: 7.87 K.9, 1.13 BB/9, 7.00 K/BB and 5.62 hits allowed per nine. It’s all about health with Smyly.
NEGATIVE
Remember all the nice things I said about DeSclafani above? You can erase some of that excitement when you note that he has an 8.38 ERA and .275 batting average against.
It’s spring, but 4.40 walks per nine for Jose Fernandez doesn’t make me feel great. OK, it’s just 14.1 innings. It really doesn’t matter – he’s simply too talented.
Matt Garza has had a couple of decent outings, but over five starts he owns a 4.82 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and has a 0.90 K/BB ratio. That’s horrific.
Gio Gonzalez has walked 5.68 batters per nine. I don’t have huge worries though. He can still get batters out.
You really weren’t buying into Rich Hill, were you? It was four starts last year folks. He stinks. Through three outings this season he is sporting a 15.26 ERA, 2.87 WHIP and .385 BAA. Move on.
Steven Matz is supposed to be a breakout star this season, right? At this point he’s walking 5.30 batters per nine with a 1.36 K/BB ratio. That’s not a good start.
Wily Peralta has allowed 15.19 hits per nine innings while striking out 5.06 batters per nine. Simply awful. His reward is an Opening Day start. Boy are the Brewers going to stink.
Jeff Samardzija has not performed as expected for the Giants. I love the arm, but he simply has to improve on what we’ve seen thus far as he owned a mere 5.76 K/9 mark and is allowing a .940 OPS against. The Giants, as do I, expect more.
Matt Shoemaker will start as C.J. Wilson tries to work his way back from injury. Meanwhile, his replacement, Matt S., has been beaten around the ballpark to the tune of a 1.072 OPS. Shoemaker has allowed seven big flies, the most in baseball.
I really like Julio Teheran who has been named the Opening Day starter for the Braves. I love the 1.04 BB/9 mark but I can’t just ignore his weak-ass 4.67 K/9 mark. It will improve.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).