2016 MLB Player Profile: Shin-Soo Choo

Coming off a down effort in 2014, Shin-Soo Choo wasn’t high on many folks draft boards entering the 2015 campaign. The 33 years old went out and hit well, but he is also coming off a season of three steals, his lowest total since becoming a full-time big league performer. Does that mark Choo as a potentially undervalued asset in 2016 or should we all be pumping the breaks and offering plenty of words of caution with the Korean born outfielder?

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

THE NUMBERS

APPROACH

Choo is a career .281 batter. However, he’s hit a combined .260 the last two seasons, just one point better than the league average. It should still be noted that he did bat .276 last season so I’m inclined to look past an injury induced .242 mark in 2014.

For each of the past four seasons Choo has posted a GB/FB ratio between 1.68 and 1.83.

For each of the past five seasons Choo has posted a line drive rate of at least 20.2 percent.

He’s extremely stable according to those three measures. His batted ball rate has been exceedingly consistent of late.

For his career Choo has a 39.1 percent pull with a 26.1 opposite field mark. Last season he pulled the ball 44.1 percent of the time while hitting 21.7 percent of the balls to the opposite field. Is that a one year outlier or a new trend? It would likely help his ability to go deep, for more on that see below, but overall not much in his offensive game really shifted last season despite the dispersal of the batted balls.

Choo has always been a strong BABIP play, always. For his career he owns a .344 mark which is elite. Since 2008, minimum 3,500 plate appearances, Choo is fifth in baseball with a mark of .343 (the leader is Joey Votto at .357). Choo hasn’t been at the .340 mark in three consecutive seasons, but in two of those years he’s been over .330. Here are his marks the last three seasons: .338, .308 and .335. He’s still a very strong producer here.

Choo has a K-rate of 21.5 percent for his career. He’s been above that mark four times in five years, but that might be a bit misleading. Choo’s K-rate the last five seasons follows: 21.8, 21.9, 18.7, 24.8 and 22.5 percent. In 2011-12 he was just a tick above his career mark. In 2013 he was way below it. In 2014 he was way above it – though again, he battled health woes all year. In 2015 he was above it but we’re talking one percent. Nothing to see here.

Choo has always been a strong free pass option as a guy who knows how to get on base. For his career Choo owns a 12.0 percent walk rate. Four of the last five seasons he has failed to reach that mark. The context though is very important. Though he has missed the walk rate in 4-of-5 seasons it would likely surprise you to learn that Choo’s five year walk rate is 12.1 percent. Yes, it’s ABOVE his career rate. Basically he’s the same as he has always been.

COUNTING CATEGORIES – RUNS & RBI

Remember when I noted above that his walk rate was the same as always? That has helped Choo remain a strong option in the OBP category. For his career he owns a .382 mark. He’s only hit that mark once in four seasons. However, since 2012 his OBP is .381. That’s right. Just like with his walk rate, if we look at the last four seasons of OBP from Choo we see – the exactly same guy we always do. That will help him to score a ton of runs. So will his spot in the order.

Last season Choo hit first 27 times and second 87 times for a total of 114 of his 149 games. In 2014 with the Rangers he hit first 97 times and third 23 times for a total of 120 games of 123. That means Choo, as a Ranger, has hit in the top third of the order 211 of 269 games. He’s most likely to hit first or second yet again in 2015. That obviously aids his ability to score runs. By the by, in his last three seasons with 140 games played he’s scored 88, 107 and 94 times.

Choo isn’t likely to be a huge RBI performer if he’s hitting first or second. Still, he did drive in 82 runners last season. However, that was the first time in five seasons that he drove in 70. You will have to look elsewhere for a big runs batted in effort.

HOME RUNS

Choo has never hit 25 homers in a big league season.

Choo has hit at least 20 homers in four big league seasons (including 2015).

Choo has five seasons in his career with 500 at-bats. Only once in those five seasons has he failed to hit 20 homers.

Obviously this is a pretty clear situation. With health Choo hits 20 homers. Or does he?

Choo owns a 14.4 percent HR/FB ratio for his career. He’s been over that mark in two of the last three seasons and that includes his 18.8 percent mark last season that was a career best. Only three times has the mark been over 14.6 percent so that 18.8 percent mark seems a bit high, but the only other time he was over 16.1 percent was in 2013 with his 16.4 percent rate. He’s shown a bit more of a home run stroke the past few seasons. Only once in eight years has the mark been under 12.7 percent (it was 10.4 in 2011).

Choo has upped that HR/FB rate of late which is good news since he’s hitting more ground balls than ever before the past four years. Choo owns a career 47.4 percent ground ball rate. The mark was in the 49 percent range from 2012-13 and it’s been in the 50 percent range the last two seasons. When you produce grounders on half your batted balls, that’s where he has been the past four seasons, the only way to reach 20 homers is to have a solid HR/FB ratio. Choo is walking a thin line here. He’s done “it” before, reaching 20 homers, but there isn’t much wiggle room for him. If his HR/FB ratio drops a few percentage points he’s not hitting 20 big flies.

STEALS

Choo will be 34 in July. As noted above, he was at one time a very solid option on the base paths. Four times in his career Choo has swiped 20 bags. He did that between 2009 and 2013. The only time he failed to reach 20 was in 2011 when he stole 12 bases. Of course, you need context to understand why the total fell. Choo only appeared in 85 games that season which, of course, is a pace for more than 20 thefts. However, things have changed the last two seasons. Choo was injured in 2014 as multiple lower body issues led to him withdrawing from running frequently. He swiped only three bases on seven attempts in 2014. So he ran more last season then, right? Nah, he didn’t. Choose stole four bases on six attempts. At his age, and coming off two seasons of not running, there is little reason to think things will be appreciably different in 2016.

Make sure to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

Choo will be 34 this season and he doesn’t run like he used to. However, his overall game with a bat in his hands looks pretty much the same as always. He’s stable, and you can’t say that about many, but fairly unexciting. If you like to take risks on draft day you won’t give him a second thought. If you like a guy you can count on Choo should be right down your alley.

10-team Mixed: The lack of base path success really dampens the value of a guy who profiles as a .275-20 guy. He’s totally worth grabbing to start in the outfield but expecting him to be appreciably better than last season isn’t in the cards, and that dims his outlook.

12-team Mixed: Think third outfielder. Not too expensive, not much volatility. He would allow you to take a chance on a player that is younger – like Gregory Polanco or Joc Pederson – since Choo would offer the stability that would allow you to take some risks in the outfield.

15-team Mixed: An ideal target. In leagues of this size people believe that they need to take risks to win. That means they will often “reach” on players that have oodles of talent but either (a) little clarity on playing time or (b) little track record. That leaves “boring” veterans like Choo to fall a bit further than ADP suggests in many instances. Even if you don’t reach like some, taking Choo still provides that floor that allows you to be a bit more aggressive that you might normally be, even if you take those chances later, rather than earlier, in the draft.

AL-Only: Can’t see why you wouldn’t take a shot here. No reaching mind you, but a strong case can be made that as your second outfielder you could do a lot worse than Choo in this format. He is money at that point.

To see where Choo ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).