Jaime Garcia is a talented, 29 year old lefty of the Cardinals. Last season he was nails with a 2.43 ERA and 1.05 WHIP for the Cards. Given his age, and those numbers, why would the Oracle be throwing up a stop sign in regards to rostering Garcia? You know the answer, don’t you? We’ll get to that in a second. First, let’s review his on the field work.

Here is a link to all the players that have been reviewed in the 2016 Player Profile Series.

THE NUMBERS

2008: Appeared in 10 games going 1-1 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.

2010: Made 28 starts going 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

2011: Took the ball a career-high 32 times going 13-7 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

2012: Went 7-7 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

2013: Went 5-2 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

2014: Went 3-1 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

2015: Went 10-6 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.

THE HEALTH CONCERN

There is NO BIGGER ISSUE than a player being able to stay on the field. Some players can, some can’t. Jaime Garcia cannot stay healthy. He’s proven it year, after year, after year, after year.

Here are Garcia’s yearly innings pitched marks. I could list all the injuries, but why bother? The tale of the tape, the workload, is damning all on its own.

Note: Numbers include innings in minors and the big leagues.

2006: 145 innings
2007: 103.1 innings
2008: 122 innings
2009: 37.2 innings
2010: 163.1 innings
2011: 194.2 innings
2012: 139.1 innings
2013: 55.1 innings
2014: 50.2 innings
2015: 143.1 innings

So let me wrap this up.

In a professional career that has literally lasted a decade, Garcia has never thrown 200-innings a season.

In a 10-year career he has thrown 190-innings one time.

In a 10-year career he has thrown 180-innings one time.

In a 10-year career he has thrown 170-innings one time.

In a 10-year career Garcia has thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title twice (162 innings).

The guy is just never healthy. Ever.

Another way to say it.

The last time that Garcia threw 130 big league innings was 2011.

Twice in the last three years he hasn’t thrown 60-innings in the big leagues.

The last four seasons he averaged a mere 88 innings a season in the big leagues. Eighty-eight.

Don’t know why you be a bothering with Garcia given that track record.

THE INJURIES

OK, I want you to know the injury history with Garcia, so here it is for the last four years for Garcia.

In 2012 he missed 75 days with a shoulder issue.

In 2013 he missed just under 140 days with a shoulder issue.

In 2014 he missed 70 days with a shoulder issue.

In 2015 he missed 75 days recovering from shoulder surgery and a groin strain.

Not always but most of the time shoulder issues are larger issues than elbow woes. Generally speaking. In the case of Garcia we have a guy who always misses time with shoulder woes. How is that going to change?

THE SKILLS

For his career Garcia owns a 3.31 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Those are solid numbers in all formats.

Garcia has bettered the 3.31 ERA mark just ONE TIME in five seasons.

Garcia has bettered the 1.26 WHIP mark just TWO TIMES in seven seasons.

Those facts should point you toward an obvious conclusion. Expecting Garcia to match his 2.43 ERA and 1.05 WHIP from last season is ludicrous. Check out his SIERA and xFIP from last season. Those marks, 3.39 and 3.36, speak to the fact that his 2.43 ERA was far too low. Moreover, his career marks in SIERA (3.52) and xFIP (3.41) suggests that his overall game last season wasn’t that off the norm.

Garcia owns a 7.12 K/9 mark in his career. He’s been under that mark in 2-of-3 seasons. That mark is below the league average. Garcia has posted a mark over 7.30 only one time in his career (8.04 in 2014). He’s simply not a strikeout arm.

Garcia owns a 2.53 BB/9 rate. That’s better than the league average which is just under three. The number is even better the last five seasons during which time Garcia owns a walk rate of 2.18 free passes per nine innings since 2011. Amongst pitchers who have thrown 400-innings in that time his walk rate is 36th best in baseball.

Garcia’s greatest skill though is his ability to generate ground balls. For his career he owns an impressive, elite even, 56.3 percent ground ball rate. The last three years his ground ball rate has been 60.5 percent. That mark comes in fourth in baseball amongst hurlers who have thrown at least 200-innings in that time. Last season the mark was 61.2 percent. That’s was the 4th best mark in baseball amongst hurlers who threw 120-innings. It was also a career best rate. He’s elite in this area.

Garcia owns a league average .301 BABIP for his career. Over his last 173.1 innings the mark is .268. Seems likely to rise in 2016.

Garcia posted a 16.5 percent line drive rate last season. His career mark is 18.2 percent. Only twice in seven seasons has the mark been below his career rate. Seems likely to rise in 2016. 

Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players Ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well as all the info you need if you’re ready to start playing DFS.

OUTLOOK

Garcia is talented. If he was throwing 190-innings a season he could be considered an option as an SP4 in mixed leagues. As I’ve laid out in detail, he’s never healthy. Why you would expect that to change in his 11the season is a total mystery to me (people always seem to want to believe that the impossible is possible). Don’t make the mistake of reaching on Jaime. You will be sorry if you do.

10-team Mixed: He’s a reserve round selection in a league this shallow. I know others will disagree with that assessment. I’m fully confident in my call with Garcia. There are just too man concerns to lean on Garcia in leagues this shallow. I’d rather have an elite middle reliever.

12-team Mixed: A sixth starter. There are so many concerns with his health that it just doesn’t make sense to list him any higher than that. Not only are the health issues at the fore, but there is the fact that he’s a below average K-arm and that his ratios aren’t usually overly impressive.

15-team Mixed: A fifth starter type. As noted, he won’t be on my club. I would personally take many other options ahead of him, guys that aren’t overly exciting either, but fellas that are simply more stable. I’m risk adverse with hurlers unless the price is extremely minimal.

NL-Only: I might be tempted here, might be, but it would all come down to cost. In truth, he won’t end up on my club. The lack of punchouts, the merely solid ratios and the lack of health (and therefore victories) paint him as the profile of a hurler that I won’t be investing in.

To see where Garcia ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).