Over the weekend I got the following series of tweets from @marcodelarocho.
take the Giants blinders off! MADBUM is not the 2nd best fantasy pitcher!
he is due for an injury riddled season...ala Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain...SF has ridden him hard last three years
no proof, just baseball...throws across his body, thrown a lot of innings at a young age.
how is madbum above guys like Scherzer and Greinke?
Before digging in to it let me state that…
Our 2016 MLB Draft Guide – which can be found at http://www.fantasyalarm.com/ray - currently lists Madison Bumgarner ahead of Max Scherzer and Zack Greinke (this is the link for the rankings). Am I crazy? Perhaps, but let’s take a look.
2015
| W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | IP |
MadBum | 18-9 | 2.93 | 1.01 | 9.65 | 1.61 | 218.1 |
Scherzer | 14-12 | 2.79 | 0.92 | 10.86 | 1.34 | 228.2 |
Greinke | 19-3 | 1.66 | 0.84 | 8.08 | 1.62 | 222.2 |
Last season Greinke had the most wins, best ERA and best WHIP of the trio. It’s ok to admit that while also pointing out that Greinke had the worst K/9 rate and BB/9 rate of the group. Meanwhile, MadBum had the worst ERA and WHIP (relative of course). What a loser.
Let’s look further back at the last three years.
2013-15
| W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | IP |
MadBum | 49-28 | 2.90 | 1.04 | 9.21 | 2.03 | 637.0 |
Scherzer | 53-20 | 2.94 | 1.02 | 10.42 | 2.08 | 663.1 |
Greinke | 51-15 | 2.30 | 1.03 | 8.29 | 1.93 | 602.2 |
We’re talking all three men being separated by one win a season.
We’re talking two of the three men being separated in ERA by about two innings of outs a season.
We’re talking virtually identical marks in WHIP from all three men.
There is a definite hierarchy in strikeouts with the three. Easy to see that as we’re basically talking a drop of a batter per inning from each fella to the next in the K/9 mark.
The walk rates are virtually the same for all three.
As for innings… Scherzer averages about eight innings more a season than MadBum and 20 more than Greinke.
So, just by looking at those numbers, if you knew nothing else could you easily make an argument for taking one over another? Be honest, could you easily pick a winner? I think most would tilt Scherzer given the 2013-15 numbers, but it’s no lock.
More data.
Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2016 MLB Draft Guide which includes more than 600 Players ranked, auction values, rookie reports, hitting and pitching targets as well 30 
proven strategies from the experts to help you win in the coming season.
1st is the best for hitters, 30th best for pitchers – listed by Park Factors for each hurlers home ballpark.
Player | Team | Runs | HR | Hits |
MadBum | Giants | 30th | 30th | 27th |
Scherzer | Nationals | 12th | 14th | 12th |
Greinke | D’backs | 8th | 24th | 8th |
There is a clear stratification here. Obviously Madison has the best ballpark to pitch in of the trio and it’s not even close… at all. It’s a big boost for the outlook of Bumgarner.
What about the pitcher’s ages? I bet you will be surprised by this data.
Player | Age | Birthdate |
MadBum | 26 years old | 8-1-1989 |
Scherzer | 31 years old | 7-27-1984 |
Greinke | 32 years old | 10-21-1983 |
Bumgarner is a whole handful of years younger than both of the others. In fact, Madison is a few months younger than Matt Harvey (3-27-1989).
We can argue about all the pitches on Bumgarner’s arm at a young age, but couldn’t we also argue that Greinke and Scherzer are older and therefore more likely to break down because of the sheer volume of pitches they have thrown over their additional five years on the planet?
All three hurlers are elite options in 2016. Just the way it is. But for those of you out there that think there’s a huge gap between the three pitchers… I just don’t see it. All three hurlers are on the same tier in our 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings. I believe that is accurate. I get it though. It’s not popular to suggest that Bumgarner is a better option than a guy who struck out 276 batters or one who posted a 1.66 ERA last season. However, I think the data, when taken in total, should at least cause you some pause to rush to judgement.
The last three years the numbers of all three are very similar.
Bumgarner has the best home park to pitch in.
Bumgarner has a huge age advantage over the other two.
There’s no Giants love going on here… it’s just an analysis of all the relevant data is all.
If you don’t agree, please leave your thoughts in the Comments section below.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).