2016 MLB Player Profile: Miguel Sano

Miguel Sano, who turns 23 in May, stands 6’3” and weighs in at about 260 lbs. He’s no small man. One of the elite prospects in the game, the Twins slugger is being drafted this season with the expectation that he will be an all-star level performer. Is that a legitimate probability for Sano?

MINOR LEAGUE NUMBERS

Sano has been an elite level prospect for years. Here are his rankings, amongst all prospects in baseball, the past three seasons.

2010: Appeared in 41 games in the Gulf Coast League hitting .291 with four homers and a .804 OPS. He had a 1.009 OPS in 20 games in the Dominican Summer League as well.  
2011: Socked 20 homers with a .292/.352/.637 line in just 66 games at Rookie Ball.

2012: In 129 games at Single-A ball he struck out 144 times while batting .258. He did post a .893 OPS with 28 big flies and 100 RBI.

2013: Appeared in 123 games at High-A and Double-A with a career best 35 homers and 103 RBI. Struck out 142 times but still had an impressive slash line (.280/.382/.610).

2014: Missed the entire campaign after having Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. He had the procedure on March 12^th.

2015: Saw action in 66 games at Double-A hitting 15 homers with 18 doubles leading to a .544 SLG. He also hit .275 with a solid .374 OBP.

MAJOR LEAGUE NUMBERS

Sano appeared in 80 games last season with 279 at-bats and 335 plate appearances.

Sano posted a .269/.385/.530 slash line.

He hit 18 homers, drove in 52 runs and scored 46 times.

He also walked 53 times with 119 strikeouts.

TWO MASSIVE CONCERNS

BABIP

The league average is about .300 in BABIP. I talk about it all the time. Players do set their own baseline – some guys are always around .280 others around .330 – but .300 is the average. Regardless, there are some knowns with BABIP, one of them being guys don’t produce .400 marks in BABIP over the course of an entire season and they certainly don’t approach that number in consecutive seasons. Why am I mentioning this?

Sano posted a .396 BABIP last season. The only player in baseball with a mark that was higher, minimum 300 plate appearances, was Chris Colabello (he too is in line for a massive fall). Let me be clear. Sano has zero chance of repeating that .396 number. None. No player in baseball has a mark of even .370 the past three seasons. Just not gonna happen with Sano.

Building off that – it should also be noted that Sano posted a 24.7 percent line drive rate. That is a repeatable number, for some, but it’s the type of mark that usually results in you ending the season as a top-15 performer in the line drive rate category. I also don’t think it’s repeatable given that his line drive rate over his final 374 minor league games was just 16.2 percent.

K-RATE

Sano appeared in 80 games. Therefore, let’s pull the double. Give him twice as many games played, assume the same strikeout pace as last season and Sano would end his 160 game season with 238 strikeouts. The all-time record for a season is 223 strikeouts for Mark Reynolds in 2009. That’s right folks… Sano was on a full-season pace last year to, at least, challenge the all-time major league record for whiffs, if not set the record outright. That should scare you. It scares me.

Sano had a 35.5 percent K-rate last season (strikeouts / plate appearances). Chris Davis led baseball, amongst qualifiers, at 31.0 percent last season. By the way, Sano posted a 26.0 percent K-rate in the minors.

The whiff is a massive concern with Sano and his ability to remain consistent and to produce a positive batting average.

PLUSES

THE POWER

Sano has off the charts power. It’s his calling card. Anyone who has ever watched him swing the stick agrees.

Sano posted a 42 percent fly ball rate last season while he only hit 33.3 percent of the balls into the ground. I don’t love a 0.79 GB/FB for a guy if I’m looking for a batting average booster, but if we’re talking a home run hitter, it’s a number I really like to see.

A huge man, Sano was able to post a 26.5 HR/FB ratio last season. Again, that’s a huge number. There were only three men who qualified for the batting title last season that reached that number (Nelson Cruz 30.3, Chris Davis 29.4 and Bryce Harper 27.3). Reasonable to expect Sano to keep that up? You’re call, but I kinda doubt he can maintain a number that is that high. Sano does own a 22.7 percent HR/FB ratio during his minor league career.

THE WALK

Sano rocked the walk rate last season. He was terrific at it. In 80 games Sano walked 53 times leading to a 15.8 percent walk rate (walks / plate appearances). Amongst qualifiers for the batting title only five men exceeded that rate last season. The mark was a bit lower in the minors at 12.2 percent, but for a young slugger there is no debate, Sano knows how to take a walk.

POSITIONAL ELIGIBILITY

A third baseman in the minors who also appeared in a few games at shortstop, Sano enters the 2016 season qualifying at one spot in fantasy baseball – utility. Sano appeared in two games at first base and nine at third base in ’15. Yep, he doesn’t have a spot with a glove that he will qualify for when the season starts. The Twins will roll with Trevor Plouffe (Player Profile) at third, and signed Byung-ho Park (Player Profile) to fill the role of designated hitter. That means Sano is currently slated to start in the outfield. Check your league rules as to qualifications as those rules do factor in to how we should be viewing Sano’s positional eligibility.  

OUTLOOK

Sano has massive power and knows how to take a walk. He also enters the season without a fantasy position and his batting average is in peril. If you could take a shot on him in the 15^th round I would be fine with that. Alas, the hype train is pushing Sano hard so the cost will be exorbitant in many leagues for a player with as many concerns as Sano possesses.

10-team Mixed: I wouldn’t end up with Sano in this format. Nope. Being that he doesn’t qualify at third base, and that it appears once he does qualify as a player it will be as an outfielder, there’s no way I’m reaching on Sano in a 10-team league. You take Sano in the 6^th round. I’ll take Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Hunter Pence round and rounds later.

12-team Mixed: I keep getting stuck on the positional/strikeout thing. Hypothetical. Let’s say the strikeouts continue and his BABIP drops .050 points. That would still leave him with an elite BABIP but it would also signal a drop in his batting average. I mentioned this on the video above – the line between Chris Davis and Pedro Alvarez isn’t as big as you might think.

15-team Mixed: He walks, has a spot in the daily lineup and owns that lighting tower power. Batting average concerns can be mitigated in a league this deep and it’s very likely that Sano will be a strong counting category producer.

AL-Only: That power is a risk worth taking a shot on, no matter what position he qualifies for. Would be fantastic if he played third base, but even as an outfielder the elite power stroke makes Sano a prime target. I still wouldn’t reach, but I’d be more aggressive in this format than any other.

To see where Sano ranks take a look at our 2016 Rankings that are part of the MLB Draft Guide.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).