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Some people still think that you have to roster a quarterback early to win in fantasy football. I’ve made the argument for hour upon hour on my radio show on SiriusXM as to why this isn’t necessarily correct. I’ve written about it over and over. And over. And over. I’ll try to be as clear as I can here without any frills in the current piece.
HISTORY
2004: 5 threw for 4,000 yards. One for 4,600 yards.
2009: 10 threw for 4,000 yards. One for 4,600 yards.
2010: 5 threw for 4,000 yards. Three for 4,600 yards.
2011: 10 threw for 4,000 yards. Six for 4,600 yards.
2012: 11 threw for 4,000 yards. Six threw for 4,600 yards.
2013: 9 threw for 4,000 yards. Three threw for 4,600 yards.
2014: 11 threw for 4,000 yards. Five threw for 4,600 yards.
2004: 9 threw for 25 touchdowns. Two threw for 35 scores.
2009: 12 threw for 25 touchdowns. None threw for 35 scores.
2010: 11 threw for 25 touchdowns. One threw for 35 scores.
2011: 9 threw for 25 touchdowns. Three threw for 40 scores.
2012: 12 threw for 25 touchdowns. Three threw for 35 scores.
2013: 11 threw for 25 touchdowns. Two threw for 35 scores.
2014: 12 threw for 25 touchdowns. Three threw for 35 scores.
2004: 7 threw 500 passes. Zero for 600 attempts.
2009: 14 threw 500 passes. Zero for 600 attempts.
2010: 9 threw 500 passes. Two for 600 attempts.
2011: 16 threw 500 passes. Three for 600 attempts.
2012: 18 threw 500 passes. Six for 600 attempts.
2013: 16 threw 500 passes. Six for 600 attempts.
2014: 14 threw 500 passes. Six for 600 attempts.
On a per team average, here are some yearly numbers.
1984: 18-for-32 (56.3%), 206 yards, 1.4 passing scores
1994: 20-for-34 (58.8%), 214 yards, 1.3 passing scores
2004: 19-for-32 (59.4%), 211 yards, 1.4 passing scores
2014: 22-for-35 (62.6%), 239 yards, 1.6 passing scores
Teams throw more passes, complete more passes, throw for more yards and scores than ever before. Period.
THE 2014 SEASON
The SiriusXM Experts League from last season used the following totals for passing categories.
4 pts for passing score
2 pts for a 2-point conversion
(-1) for an interception
1 pt for 20 passing yards
* Point totals differ based up the league you played in of course, so keep that in mind.
** The following results are from Weeks 1-16 (since Week 17 is nearly universally skipped). Players are ranked based on points scored per game.
# - Rank at QB
OVR - Overall rank amongst all players.
| # | Ovr | Player | Pts | Avg | # | Ovr | Player | Pts | Avg | |
| 1 | 1 | Luck, Andrew IND QB | 398.6 | 26.6 | 17 | 28 | Cousins, Kirk WAS QB | 114.3 | 19.1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB | 374.9 | 25.0 | 18 | 30 | Foles, Nick PHI QB | 150.7 | 18.8 | |
| 3 | 3 | Manning, Peyton DEN QB | 361.3 | 24.1 | 19 | 31 | Sanchez, Mark PHI QB | 150.7 | 18.8 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wilson, Russell SEA QB | 358.3 | 23.9 | 20 | 32 | Stafford, Matthew DET QB | 280.9 | 18.7 | |
| 5 | 8 | Brees, Drew NOS QB | 354 | 23.6 | 21 | 33 | Orton, Kyle BUF QB | 204.5 | 18.6 | |
| 6 | 9 | Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB | 340.2 | 22.7 | 22 | 35 | Glennon, Mike TBB QB | 109.6 | 18.3 | |
| 7 | 10 | Ryan, Matt ATL QB | 332.3 | 22.2 | 23 | 37 | Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB | 269.4 | 18.0 | |
| 8 | 14 | Brady, Tom NEP QB | 322.7 | 21.5 | 24 | 40 | Fitzpatrick, Ryan HOU QB | 212.3 | 17.7 | |
| 9 | 16 | Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB | 316.7 | 21.1 | 25 | 44 | Smith, Alex KCC QB | 258.2 | 17.2 | |
| 10 | 17 | Cutler, Jay CHI QB | 294.9 | 21.1 | 26 | 45 | Dalton, Andy CIN QB | 256.3 | 17.1 | |
| 11 | 18 | Rivers, Philip SDC QB | 315.4 | 21.0 | 27 | 47 | Bridgewater, Teddy MIN QB | 203.3 | 16.9 | |
| 12 | 20 | Newton, Cam CAR QB | 270.1 | 20.8 | 28 | 52 | Bortles, Blake JAC QB | 201 | 15.5 | |
| 13 | 21 | Romo, Tony DAL QB | 290 | 20.7 | 29 | 54 | Whitehurst, Charlie TEN QB | 92.6 | 15.4 | |
| 14 | 23 | Palmer, Carson ARI QB | 122.6 | 20.4 | 30 | 56 | McCown, Josh TBB QB | 153.4 | 15.3 | |
| 15 | 24 | Manning, Eli NYG QB | 302.8 | 20.2 | 31 | 57 | McCoy, Colt WAS QB | 76.3 | 15.3 | |
| 16 | 26 | Flacco, Joe BAL QB | 290 | 19.3 | 32 | 59 | Carr, Derek OAK QB | 226.5 | 15.1 |
Luck was at the top of the heap last season. He was less than two points clear of the #2 man.
Luck and Rodgers were the only 25 point per game producers.
Manning was the only QB with 24 points a game.
Russell and Brees were at 23 points.
Big Ben, Ryan were at 22 points.
Brady, Tannehill, Cutler, Rivers had 21 points a game.
Newton, Romo, Palmer, Eli had 20 points.
Let’s review.
Let’s assume we’re in a 12-team league.
I listed 15 quarterbacks who scored at least 20 points per game.
There were 11 quarterbacks with at least 21 points a game.
The #5 QB was Brees at 23.6 points. The #12 QB was Newton at 20.8 points. That’s a difference of 2.8 points.
Let’s compare that difference to runners and receivers (6 pts touchdown, 1 point per catch, 1 point per 10 rushing/receiving yards). Remember, we start two times as many runners (12 teams, two RBs), and three times as many wide receivers (12 teams, 3 WRs) as quarterbacks (12 total starting), let’s look at each of those positions.
#5 RB was Marshawn Lynch at 19.0 points a game.
#24 RB was Tre Mason at 11.5 points a game.
#5 WR was Julio Jones at 20.5 points a game.
#36 WR was Eric Decker at 11.6 points a game.
QB5 to QB12 is an average difference per week of 2.8 points.
RB5 to RB24 is an average difference per week of 7.5 points.
WR5 to WR36 is an average difference per week of 9.9 points.
DO NOT FORGET… we still have a flex play to fill meaning that there are more than 24 runners and 36 wideouts starting in any given weeks, so it’s an even bigger spread than it would appear to be.
I could go on and on, like I have in the past, but hopefully this little digression makes a couple of points obvious to you.
(1) You start 12 quarterbacks in a traditional 12 team league. In that same league you have to start at least 24 runners and 36 wide receivers. You have to dig deeper at those two positions which should make the supply vs. demand argument one that makes a lot of sense to you.
(2) Quarterbacks are more stable from week-to-week than RBs and WRs. Even a bad quarterback still produce points each week whereas a craptastic outing for a runner or receiver can be catastrophic.
(3) There simply isn’t as much of a difference between the top quarterbacks and the lower level quarterbacks who start each week when compared to the differences at the runner and wideout positions.
Don’t take your quarterback early. You just don’t have to.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 8 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).