MINORS

Jake Lamb was drafted in the 6th round in 2012 by the Diamondbacks. 

Overall Prospect in baseball...

2015: Baseball America (78), Baseball Prospectus (80)

Overall numbers: .321/.406/.553 with 37 HRs, 193 RBIs, 158 runs in 244 games

MAJORS

2014: .230/.263/.373 with 4 HRs, 11 RBIs, 15 runs in 37 games

2015 START: .286-1-7 through three games

REVIEW

Oh the insanity.

 

Yes, that was the worst video link I've ever put in an article I've written, but the point stand. People have lost their minds.

I know Lamb has started out on an RBI tear. I get it. It's three games though. Let's review.

(1) Just three weeks ago the Diamondbacks weren't even sure if Lamb was going to be their starter at third base. Remember that the tried to get an outfielder, Yasmany Tomas, to play third base. Why would they have done that if they were sold on Lamb being capable of holding down the starting spot at third base this season? How can that give you any confidence with Lamb given that simple fact?

(2) I know we don't care as much about this stuff anymore, but Lamb has all of 18 at-bats above Double-A in the minors and just another 133 at the big league level. That's 151 at-bats above Double-A. Matters to me at least.

(3) He doesn't have overwhelming impressive skills. He's got, on the 20-80 scouting scale, a 50 hit tool mark and 60 power. 

(4) Lamb is a lefty swinger who has solid bat speed. He is better at covering the inside part of the plate than the outside edge, but overall he's fairly advanced in his understanding of the strike zone. He can get a little long with his swing and in so doing create opportunities for pitchers to attack him. This can be especially concerning on away stuff from lefties, especially when it's off-speed. Moreover, the scouting community is far from unanimous about the outlook for Lamb. Some see Lamb as a potential all-star. Others see him as a solid big leaguer. Still others think he would be best served as a platoon option or bench player. When there is that much diversity in the opinion of scouts shouldn't you be concerned?

Speaking of that work against lefties we have to listen to the scouts and second level data because the straight numbers don't show any level of concern. Lamb hit .319 with a .912 OPS against lefties in the minors. Makes him look like a star. But, take into account four key facts. (1) The scouts thoughts. (2) A .421 BABIP versus lefties. That's absurdly high. Simply no chance he brings that level with him to the big leagues especially when you consider that his line drive rate against lefties in the minors was 18.8 percent. (3) His strikeout rate against lefties was over 24 percent. Remember that only five of 244 minor league games were above Double-A as well. (4) Aaron Hill could see plenty of time at third base when there is a lefty on the hill limiting Lamb's workload.

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CONCLUSION

Lamb has a nice bat, albeit one with concerns. He should offer some pop but that might come with some struggles in the batting average category. Given the additional fact that he's likely to do little to nothing on the base paths, there's simply not much upside here to be mined despite the hot start. You can add Lamb and try to ride the wave as they say, but realize there's a huge distance for him to travel before you can be confident that starting him all season long as a good play in a mixed league. A best case scenario for Lamb, meaning he gets 500 at-bats this season and produces, would likely end up with numbers akin to what David Freese (.260-10-55-53) or Luis Valbuena (.249-16-51-68) offered their owners last season. He might reach 20 homers, but dreams of a significant power season are unlikely to be filled. There won't be a breakout effort of significant fantasy impact from Lamb this season.