Jedd Gyorko hit 23 homers with 63 RBIs and 62 runs scored in 125 games as a rookie in 2013. The fantasy world was so excited that a few industry folks were touting Jedd as a potential top-5 option at second base in 2014. Like Brett Lawrie before him though, Gyorko fell on hard times in his second season. Not only was he injured, but his production was absolutely hideous in pretty much every way imaginable as he hit .210 with 10 homers. Seems like everyone has moved on heading into 2015. Is that a wise position to take or is there still some hope for the righty with the Padres?

THE MINORS

2010: Drafted in the second round by the Padres out of West Virginia University. Appeared in 68 games as a 21 year old at Low-A hitting .302 with seven homers and 41 RBIs.

2011: Appeared in 140 games at High-A and Double-A batting .333 with a .952 OPS. Jedd hit 25 homers, had 114 RBIs and scored a whopping 119 times. Also stole 12 bags for good measure.

2012: Baseball America ranked him as the 98th best prospect in baseball, Baseball Prospectus had him 57th and MLB.com 71st. Appeared in 126 games at Double and Triple-A batting .311 with a .921 OPS. He socked 30 long balls and drove in 100 runs while scoring 80 times.

2013: Baseball America ranked him as the 71st best prospect in baseball, Baseball Prospectus had him 84th and MLB.com 50th. Appeared in three games with eight plate appearances.

2014: Saw action in six games at Triple-A batting .292 with a .892 OPS. 

TOTALS: .320/.386/.529 with 63 HRs, 261 RBIs, 243 runs & 19 SBs over 343 games

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THE MAJORS

2013: Finished 6th in the NL Rookie of the Year race after batting .249 with 23 homers, 63 RBIs and 62 runs scored over 125 games for the Padres. He missed 32 days with a right groin strain.

2014: He missed 54 days with plantar fasciitis in his left foot starting in early June. He was limited to 111 games of action during which time he hit .210 with 10 homers, 51 RBIs and 37 runs scored in a down second season. 

THE SKILLS

The Gyorko hype last season was out of control. Coming off a 23 homer rookie campaign he was getting mad love from many. Here's what I wrote about him in our 2014 Draft Guide. "I fear the young player hype will drive Gryorko’s price tag pretty high on draft day so tread with caution before you blindly tab him as your starter at second." There were sooooooo, sorry for all the "o's", so many concerns heading into 2014 even after his strong 2013. Some of those concerns.

As a rookie Gyorko had a .249 average.
As a rookie Gyorko had a .301 OBP.
As a rookie Gyorko he walked 33 times in 125 games.
As a rookie Gyorko he struck out 123 times.

Those numbers alone should have caused pause. Of course, they didn't for many. People see a young player and always, and I'm talking 98 out of 100 times, think that young player will be better the next season. Heck, folks think that even about the old guys (I personally love the projection systems that are so rosie that everyone is going to be as good as they were last season or even better. Can't happen. Guys fail folks). When talking rookies though, there is an inherent bias that the player, if he has a pedigree and early success in the bigs that there's nothing that can stop him. Well, as you noted above, Jedd crushed minor league hurler with reckless abandon. What happened when he hit the big leagues? Success in year one. Of course, that meant he was blowing up in year two. Well, he did, but it just so happened to be in the wrong direction.

Jedd hit 10 homers with a .210 batting average, a .280 OBP and saw his OPS dip .133 points down to a sickly .612 in year two. Atrocious. 

So who is Jedd Gyorko?

He is not a base stealer. He has four thefts in two seasons. That's not gonna change.

He's not a batting average producer at this time. Here's what we know.

(1) Gyorko has hit .231 through 886 at-bats over two seasons.

(2) Gyorko owns a .271 BABIP over two seasons. The league average is .290-.300. Even during his successful rookie season the number was only .287.

(3) Gyorko has a 7.1 percent walk rate for his two seasons. That's just slightly below the league average as he's drawn 33 and 36 walks the last two seasons. There were 11 men last season who walked more than 33 times after the All-Star break (Carlos Santana walked 50 times his last 58 games). 

(4) Gyorko strikes out too much with 223 punchouts through two seasons leading to a K-rate of 23.0 percent. If he were to maintain that pace over a 550 at-bat season we would be looking at a total of 138 strikeouts. Guys certainly whiff more than that but it's not a good mark and certainly not going to allow Jedd to up his batting average.

(5) Gyorko has really struggled against righties thus far. Over 665 at-bats he's hit just .226 with a .280 OBP and mere .379 SLG against them. Those are the numbers of a bench player, not a guy who is on the cusp of improving. 

(6) About the positive when it comes to Gyorko's batting average outlook is his line drive rate. It was an impressive 22.5 percent as a rookie and 21.8 percent in year two leading to a career 22.2 percent mark. There are very few players, I mean like a handful, that produce a line drive rate that high year after year who  fail to better the league batting average mark. 

What about the power?

Gyorko has that for a second sacker.

As a minor leaguer he had an 18.5 percent HR/F ratio from 2011-14. As a rookie that mark was 15.9 percent with the Padres. Given four years of dating at impressive levels, I'm willing to give him a power mulligan for 2014 when his HR/F ratio dipped substantially down to a league average 9.5 percent. Not just does his personal history suggest he should rebound, but there's also the fact that he wasn't healthy last season. Being fully capable, physically, is always a huge key.

A concern about the power though. Check out his ground ball and fly ball numbers.

Minors: 38 percent GB, 41 percent FB
2013: 38 percent GB, 40 percent FB
2014: 44 percent GB, 35 percent FB

Again, we've got three seasons at one level and then last years fall off. Benefit of the doubt is being extended here with Gyorko, but let's head into 2015 assuming things return to 2013 levels.

As for run producing... it's not looking great. I'll address why that is in the next section. Let's just say that his spot in the batting order isn't likely to do him any favors, and regardless of your spot in the lineup, how many runs can you score if your OBP is a pathetic .291 (his career mark)?

PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS

The good news is that Jedd is the Padres' second baseman. They really don't have the option to play anyone else there (they could turn to Yangervis Solarte at some point if Gyorko struggles, but Solarte could also see a lot of time playing third base if Will Middlebrooks struggles in his first season in San Diego). Jedd was nearly an elite level prospect who killed it in the minors. That usually gets you a few shots in the bigs. The bad news is that the revamped Padres lineup would seem to indicate that Jedd will bat in the bottom third of the lineup. He could hit 6th in a best case scenario, but it's hard to envision him hitting higher than that and he could easily end up hitting 7th. 

CONCLUSION

Gyorko will be cheap after his horrible 2014 effort. If you want to throw a dart his way, so be it. There's a reasonable expectation that Gyorko will produce more along the lines of his rookie season that his flunky effort in year two. Note however that he isn't going to steal bases, has little shot of batting much better than the league average, and his spot in the batting order isn't likely to help much when it comes to the counting categories.

10 team lg: Really shouldn't be drafted in this format. There might be 20 better options at second base to start the season, at least guys with more potential "upside," so Jedd is best left on waivers until he proves worthy of being rostered.

12 team lg: A reserve round play with the hope that the power returns. Don't invest in Jedd, only take him late if you need a potential power bat up the middle. Is there really any difference between him and Aaron Hill at this point? 

15 team lg: A middle infield option, though his obvious limitations mean he should only be rostered in scenarios in which he's a good fit (you need power, you have average/steals covered).

NL-only: In this format he's an obvious starter as a player who would, with health, appear to have 500 at-bats coming his way. With a rebound to his rookie level numbers Gyorko would become a very useful player in this setup. Can he get there is the question?