David Wright had a terrible 2014 season. He was bad on the field and his season eventually ended with him visiting a doctor and shutting things down because of his shoulder. Can the third sacker of the Mets rebound, and even if he does improve, how much of the old David Wright will we likely see in 2015?

THE MINORS

A first round selection in 2001, Wright saw action in 401 games in the minors. In 2004 he was ranked as the 21st best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. 

TOTALS: .291/.391/.496 with 48 homers, 244 RBIs, 252 runs scored and 72 steals in 401 games 

THE MAJORS

An 11 year vet, here are his career 5x5 fantasy numbers and at-bats. 

2004: .293-14-40-41-6 in 263 at-bats

2005: .306-27-102-99-17 in 575 at-bats

2006: .311-26-116-96-20 in 582 at-bats

2007: .325-30-107-113-34 in 604 at-bats

2008: .302-33-124-115-15 in 626 at-bats

2009: .307-10-72-88-27 in 535 at-bats

2010: .283-29-103-87-19 in 587 at-bats

2011: .254-14-61-60-13 in 389 at-bats

2012: .306-21-93-91-15 in 581 at-bats

2013: .307-18-58-63-17 in 430 at-bats

2014: .269-8-63-54-8 in 535 at-bats
 

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THE SKILLS

David Wright is younger than you think. Go ahead, take a guess at how old you think he is. Here's a filler sentence just to take up some space so that even if you didn't want to stop and think about how old Wright really is you've had no choice but to turn it over in your head as you wasted time reading it. Wright turned 32 in December. That's not an age where we have to posit failure or abject physical failure. It can happen that way, but it doesn't have to happen that way.

So what the heck happened to Wright in 2014? First and foremost his shoulder was jacked. The injury started costing him playing time in July before it hit hard in September costing him the last three weeks of the year. Wright seems hellbent on proving that he's not done being one of the better hitting third basemen in baseball. Here's what he had to say in an interview in mid-January with the NY Post. "I’m hitting off a tee, doing flips [tosses],’’ Wright said. “It’s still pretty controlled, which is fairly normal for this time of year. I feel good. In my eyes, I’m not too far behind from where I am normally at this time of year."

Assuming Wright's body is healthy is a bit tough to do with full confidence at this point since we have not seen him swing a bat since 2014. At the same time, it sure seems like his shoulder will be where it needs to be for him to return to prominence, though a left shoulder injury certainly could sap a bit of pop from his swing being that it's his lead arm in his swing. Hypothetical of course.

As for his production...

Let what I'm about to write sink in before you move on.

In 2012 Wright hit .306 with 21 homers, 93 RBIs, 91 runs scored and 15 steals. No third basemen reached all five of those numbers in 2014.

In 2013 Wright hit .307 with 18 homers and 17 steals, even though he appeared in just 112 games. No third basemen reached those three numbers in 2014.

Read it again, then note Wright just turned 32 years of age.

I can hear the voice of Kyle Elfrink in the back of my head (he's my co-host on The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio at 7 PM EDT Monday-Friday). He says all the time 'the guy hasn't hit 20 homers in three of the last four years, he hasn't hit 65 RBIs in three of four years, he hasn't appeared in 135 games in three of four years.' Kyle, you're right. But that's also taking the negative view (when am I considered the positive one?). 

To Kyle's point... Wright is coming back of shoulder surgery and he has been unable to play 135 games in three of four years. That's an issue that shouldn't be minimized. It's real. 

It's also fair to point out that lack of homers that Wright has produced of late. When you factor in the power slow down, and the shoulder woes, we've got the portrait of a guy who is more likely to be a 15-20 homer guy than a 20-25 homer option in 2015. I should note that I'm tossing out his effort in 2014 somewhat. I'm laying the blame on injury. Why? Note that Wright had a 36.8 percent fly ball rate, a little low for a guy with a 38.7 percent career mark, but nothing crazy. It's the 5.1 percent HR/F rate that really stands out though. Wright owns a career mark of 13.0 percent. Only once in his career before last season has that mark dipped to even 12.0, more than double the mark he posted last season. We should see a rebound here if his shoulder truly is healthy. 

Other notes to point out when we're talking batted ball with Wright. 

In 2014 he posted a 23.4 percent line drive rate. That's better than his career 22.6 percent mark and it's the best mark he's tossed out there in five years.

Wright also posted a 1.08 GB/FB ratio. His career mark is 1.00.
 
Wright had a .325 BABIP in 2014. That's a bit below his .339 career mark, but his mark last season is totally within the realm of the expected given his skill set. 

Pretty standard stuff there for Wright.

On the downside I should note that his ability to take a walk vanished last season. After 9-straight years with a BB-rate (BB/PA) of double digits his 2014 mark was 7.2 percent. But a positive in the negative. Though Wright's K-rate (K/PA) was a three year high at 19.3 percent, it was less than a percentage point above his 18.4 percent career rate. His swinging strike percentage of 8.0 was just barely above his 7.6 percent career mark as well. It should also be noted that his 27.1 percent swing percentage on pitches out of the strike zone was a 4-year high, but the mark has been at least 25.0 percent the last five years so it's not like things went totally haywire in 2014. 

CONCLUSION

Talk of the demise of David Wright appears to me to be premature. Is he going 30/30 in 2015? Hell no. Is a 20/20 effort in the cards? Even me, his biggest backer, isn't going to say the likelihood of that is great. But, can Wright rebound from the doldrums of '14 to be a viable mixed league starter in 2015? I think the answer to that is an unqualified yes. I also think, that in many leagues, the perception that Wright has lost it will cause him to fall in drafts (in the drafts I've been doing in preseason 2015 I've frequently seen Wright fall in the 9-11 round range in mixed leagues, and according the NFBC ADP data Wright is the 9th third baseman off the board at pick 99 overall). You have to decide if you would prefer guys like Pablo Sandoval or Ryan Zimmerman over Wright, but my point is that Wright deserves to be a starter in mixed leagues at third base in 2015.

10 team lg: On the cusp of being a starting third basemen in this format. If he's your corner infielder you've likely got a power packed infield.

12 team lg: Inside my top-12 in the Fantasy Alarm third base preseason rankings. Hard for me to envision that changing unless his shoulder doesn't respond as we expect it to in Spring Training. 

15 team lg: You can have Manny Machado or Yasmany Tomas, give me Wright. In 2012-13 Wright was still an extremely productive performer, and he continues to do something hardly any third basemen ever do - he steals bases. That fact alone should attract you to him in a league of this size. 

NL-only: Wright is a potential top-5 option at third base in this setup. Would you prefer the likes of Matt Carpenter, Aramis Ramirez or Josh Harrison? Third base is not an overly deep group in the Senior Circuit.