Last year in AL LABR I took a shot on J.D. Martinez and drafted him in the reserve rounds of AL LABR. Think of that. Last year no one - in an AL-only league - was willing to spend $1 on JDM. How did he become a star and will that success continue in 2015?

THE MINORS

2009: As a 21 year old he appeared in 72 games for the Astros organization between rookie ball and Single-A. He hit a robust .348 with a .997 OPS over 72 games. He hit 12 big flies with 24 doubles and drove in 56 runs.

2010: Spent 138 games at Single and Double-A. He yet again ripped it up batting .341 with 18 homers, 89 RBIs an a .937 OPS over 138 excellent offensive games. 

2011: Saw action in 88 games at Double-A batting .338 with 13 homers, 72 RBIs an a .959 OPS. What else did the guy need to prove?

2012: Didn't homer, hit .233 and posted a .563 OPS over 23 games at Triple-A.

2013: In five games he hit .300 with a homer and five RBIs.

2014: Hit .308 while blasting 10 homers in just 17 games for the Tigers Triple-A affiliate in Toledo.

TOTALS: .332/.394/.548 with 54 homers, 248 RBIs and 222 runs scored in 343 games.

THE MAJORS

2011: In 53 games with the Astros he hit .274 with six homers and 35 RBIs. His OPS was .742.

2012: Appeared in 113 games batting just .241 with 11 homers and 55 RBIs. His OPS sunk to just .685. 

2013: In 86 big league games he hit .250 with seven homers and 36 RBIs. He also posted a mind boggling pathetic 0.12 BB/K ratio.

2014: Released by the Astros - released - he was signed two days later by the Tigers on March 24. In 123 games with the men from Motown he hit .315, socked 23 homers and drove in 76 runs as he posted a .912 OPS.

THE SKILLS

So what the hell happened with Martinez, gotsta be what you're thinking right? After three years of stagnation the Astros just flat gave up on Martinez. J.D. then signs with the Tigers and channels his inner Miguel Cabrera on his way to a flat out dominating run of 123 games in the bigs. Let's try to piece this puzzle together.

First off we have to talk about his swing change. Martinez wanted to keep his bat in the zone longer. He studied film, if you can believe it, from Jason Castro. "The way it hit me was when I saw the slow-motion video and looked at how many frames -- I call them clicks -- when your bat is in the zone, and you watch some of the great hitters and they're in the zone for six, eight clicks and you're like, 'Wow,'" he said. "I was in the zone, at my best, two or three clicks." How did he accomplish this? He lowered his hands at setup, and flattened out a swing that was too steep. From his former hitting coach in Houston, John Mallee. "Now that he's on plane, pitches he's not on time on, he's still on the same plane as the pitch, so he can catch it in different parts of his swing and still square the ball up and make solid contact." 

As you can easily see, the results weren't just positive, they were spectacular. Hence our dilemma with Martinez. A monster in the low minors, from the second half of the 2011 season until the end of the 2013 campaign he could charitably be called a replacement level bat. OK, he wasn't even that good. He was below average. Then he gets released, signs with the Tigers, and posts a .912 OPS which was higher than Edwin Encarnacion (.901), Miguel Cabrera (.895), Adrian Beltre (.s879), Nelson Cruz (.859), Buster Posey (.854) etc. 

Let's look at his 2014 effort.

AVERAGE

Martinez hit .315. Is that sustainable? Simple answer is not a chance. 

(1) JDM had a .389 BABIP. Players simply don't, I mean no one, repeat that mark season after season. Doesn't happen. He didn't have enough at-bats to qualify, but the actual league leader couldn't match that mark in 2014 (Starling Marte .373). 

(2) JDM walked 30 times last season, only 25 times unintentionally. I say it all the time, but it's nearly impossible to consistently hit over .300 with a BB/K rate as low as we saw from Martinez last season (0.24). Last season 16 men had 502 plate appearances and hit over .300. Only two of them had a BB/K under 0.39 - Josh Harrison (0.27) and Ben Revere (0.27). Both of those men have the speed advantage over Martinez as well. 

(3) Martinez struck out 126 times in 123 games. Obviously that's not good. His 26.3 percent K-rate was crazy high for a guy who thinks he can hit .300. No .300 hitter last season was above 21.1 percent (Jose Abreu) and the other 15 men were all under 18 percent. In fact, the highest qualifying batting average of any player who had a K-rate of 26.3 percent last season was .288 by Giancarlo Stanton.

(4) Martinez had a 22.7 line drive rate in 2014. While it's certainly plausible to posit that he could reach that level again, it is a very high mark which when taken in the context of the entirety of his career suggests that a pullback is coming (his mark the first three years was 20.9).

J.D. Martinez will not hit .300 in 2015. With this approach he might not hit .280.

POWER

In his first 899 big league at-bats Martinez hit 25 homers. That's one per 36 at-bats.
In 441 at-bats in 2014 he hit 23 homers. That's one per 19 at-bats.

From 2011-13 his HR/F ratio was 10.6 percent.
In 2014 his HR/F ratio was 19.5 percent.

'But Ray, the change in his swing that you talked about totally explains the surge.'

Does it?

The first three years of his career JDM had a 33.3 percent fly ball rate. Lat season the rate was up but only to 36.8 percent. That's a minor increase that's well within the realm of the expected. Nothing in that mark suggests that we can explain things merely by noting a new swing path. The fact is that he had never shown this type of power in the bigs, not even remotely close. Given that he really didn't jack up his fly ball rate we're left to lay an awful lot at a HR/F ratio that nearly doubled last season. I don't believe it's logical to expect that doubling to be repeated. Do you? Given that fact, odds are that even with an increase in games played that Martinez will have a very hard time hitting 25 homers. 

CONCLUSION

When a player makes a monumental leap in performance we should all be concerned. It's one thing for a 21 year old at Single-A to do it. It's another thing when a 26 year old, with three years of big league failure, suddenly becomes an all-star. Twelve months ago his career was spiraling down the drain at a rapid pace. JDM has a poor approach at the dish which signals batting average peril. He doesn't steal bases. The power spike we witnessed last year seems more likely than not to be somewhat of a mirage. JDM is in line for a fall in 2015. The question for you to consider - is the fall going to be soft like a parachute descending to earth or will that chute fall to open as he splats on the landing pad?

10 team lg: As a fifth outfielder maybe. At the same time, a guy like Marlon Byrd can be had at a much cheaper price and likely offer similar results. 

12 team lg: If his average falls like I expect then J.D. could becomes the equivalent of a Khris Davis type. What would you be willing to pay for Davis' services? A lot less than what most will pay for Martinez, right?  Don't reach.

15 team lg: Cost, cost, cost. As you've been reading, I'm not recommending adding Martinez in any format as a must. I can take this guy as an option in my outfield no problem in this format, but I also want to be aware of the Oswaldo Arcia's of the world. Risk/reward should be factored into any decision with Martinez.

AL-only: I say this a lot, but I don't like to build my team in a league specific setup around a non-proven piece. Don't be the fool that bids $25 for Martinez or the fella who spends a third round pick on him. As such, you're likely going to have to resign yourself to letting someone else overspend to acquire his services.