Brian Dozier was a fantasy star in 2014. Dozier went 20/20, scored 112 runs, and made everyone that "settled" for him as their starter at second base last season appear like genius'. What will the middle infielder do for an encore in 2015? You know what I'm going to say already, don't you?

2013 SEASON

Brian Dozier hit 18 homers and stole 14 bases. From a guy who was a 9/6 performer as a rookie that was a hell of a season. Dozier also drove in 66 runs and scored 72 times. He was of twelve players to go 18-66-72-14. Nine of those players were outfielders. 

2014 SEASON

Brian Dozier hit 23 homers and stole 21 bases. Dozier also drove in 71 runs and scored 112 times.  Dozier was the only player in baseball in 2014 that reached all four of those numbers. 

POWER

On the surface there is no way around the fact that Dozier's power has grown as he's gone from six to 18 to 23 homers in three seasons. Let's dig a bit deeper.

2012: One homer every 39.5 at-bats
2013: One homer every 31.0 at-bats
2014: One homer every 26.0 at-bats

Significant growth.

Deeper.

2012: 38 percent fly ball rate
2013: 41 percent fly ball rate
2014: 43 percent fly ball rate

Some moderate growth, but nothing unexpected or overly interesting. 

Deeper.

2012: 1.09 GB/FB ratio 
2013: 0.92 GB/FB ratio
2014: 0.87 GB/FB ratio

Deeper.

2012: 6.3 percent HR/F
2013: 9.9 percent HR/F
2014: 11.3 percent HR/F

Let's put it all together. For his career Dozier has a 38 percent fly ball ratio, a 0.93 GB/FB ratio an a 9.8 HR/F ratio. The league averages are usually about 44 percent, 1.10 GB/FB and a 10.0 HR/F ratio. Do we see anything that Dozier has done in these three measures as truly standing out? The answer is obviously no. It should also be pretty apparent that the homer total Dozier posted last season - 23 - is the top end. Dozier doesn't convert enough fly balls into home runs to improve upon that number, especially when you factor in that he hits far fewer fly balls than the average big league hitter. 

Another run to 20 homers is certainly possible in the coming season but Brian could just as easily see a regression to his 2013 level as a repeat of his 2014 mark. 

SPEED

Dozier has foot speed. No doubt about that. Look at his steals numbers headed back to his minor league days.

2009: 3
2010: 16
2011: 28
2012: 12
2013: 14
2014: 21

Could Dozier steal 20 bases again in 2015? Absolutely he could. Will he? That's much less certain. He's a good bet for 15 thefts - at least that should be your level of expectation with 20 as a possible upside play. 

ABILITY TO HIT

Seems odd to suggest that Dozier can't hit, but honestly, he's not a very good hitter. What do I mean? Start out by checking out that batting average. There might only be a handful of batters in baseball who have been more consistent the past three years.

2012: .234 batting average 
2013: .244 batting average
2014: .242 batting average

Dozier is not even a league average batter in terms of batting average (.255 since he began his career). Period. More data.

In 2014 Dozier hit .241 at home and .244 on the road. 
In 2014 Dozier hit .242 in the first half and .244 in the second half.

Let's pull back and look at his career. 

For his career Dozier has hit .243 at home.
For his career Dozier has hit .240 on the road.
For his career Dozier has hit .226 against right handed pitching.

That last number is key. Sure Dozier has success against lefties, .284 for his career, but the facts are the facts, and what the data tell us is that Dozier c a n n o t hit right-handed pitching. 

Interested in more data that suggests Dozier is consistently mediocre and simply a poor option in the batting average category? Here you go.

2012: .267 BABIP & 20.6 percent line drive rate
2013: .278 BABIP & 20.8 percent line drive rate
2014: .269 BABIP & 19.9 percent line drive rate

More consistency that shows no growth you say?

2012: 84.5 contact rate
2013: 84.6 contact rate
2014: 84.4 contact rate

Mind-numbingly consistent is Dozier, and that fact says that in terms of his batting average in 2015 that a best case scenario, best case, is a league average mark.

ABILITY TO GET ON BASE 

The first two years of his career, over 1,006 plate appearances, Dozier posted a .297 OBP. The league average those two years was .321.

In 2014 Dozier, over 674 plate appearances, Dozier had a .345 OBP. The league average last season was .316.

For his career we're looking at a man with a .318 OBP, just slightly below the league mark the last three years.

Which is the real Dozier? Can Dozier repeat the .345 mark he posted last season? Let's look at the tape.

(1) Dozier's strikeout rate was 18.2 percent in 2014. His career mark is 18.4. There was no change.

(2) Dozier did walk more, substantially more in fact. Over his first two seasons he walked 57 times over 1,006 plate appearances. That's one walk every 17.7 plate appearances. Last season he walked 89 times in 707 plate appearances. That's one walk every 7.9 plate plate appearances. Let me ask you an honest question. Do you really believe it's reasonable to expect Dozier to hold on to a walk rate that was literally 100 percent higher than the mark he posted his first two seasons?

The walk rate of Dozier is a significant key for his 2015 value. Can he continue to get on base at a better than league average rate or will he regress to the worse than league average option he was his first two seasons? Dozier did post a .370 OBP over 365 minor league games. So he obviously can post a .345 mark against in the big leagues, right? Well, maybe not. 

Dozier had a .370 OBP in the minors. He hit .298. That's a gap of .072 points between his OBP and batting average. Back to the bigs. As a rookie in 2012 the gap was .037 points (.234 and .271). In 2013 the gap was .068 (.244 and .312). In 2014 the gap was .103. Which number is the outlier? Seems pretty obvious does it not? Remember, we've established that Dozier has very little shot at seeing a boost in his batting average. Given that fact, it's very likely his OBP target for 2015 will be closer to his .318 career mark than the .345 total he posted last season. Obviously this will make another run to 110+ runs scored an extremely dubious proposition. Speaking of that, do you know how many players have scored 110 runs in a season in which they posted an OBP below .333 in the 21st century? The answer is twice: Dan Uggla (2007) and Alfonso Soriano (2002). It just doesn't happen folks. 

2015 OUTLOOK

Dozier certainly can be looked at as a player with a fair shot at hitting 15 homers and stealing 15 bases in 2015. After all he has averaged 21 homers and 18 steals the past two years so I'm not exactly out there on the ledge with that statement. 

However there really isn't much to get excited about here. His batting average is likely to be below league average. Fifteen to 20 homers is solid but it's far from jumping off the page. Twenty steals would be nice, but what if he swipes 13 bases? That would significantly change his outlook. It's also an open question if he can maintain the batting average he posted last season and if that number regresses his runs scored mark could tumble precipitously. 

Dozier will produce, little doubt about that. He will also struggle for long periods, be death to your batting average, and likely fail to live up to your expectations. It's like when you buy a new car that runs 0-60 in 4.3 seconds. Flooring that puppy lights up the tires, thrusts you back into the seat and takes you back to the drag racing days of high school. However the ride is rough, it has a junky radio, a luxury like A/C doesn't exist and the rocket with wheels gets you 13 miles a gallon. Flashy and fun to own but flawed. Kinda like Brian Dozier.