Oracle Report: Patience
It's early. Take a breath. It will all be OK. Ray Flowers explains.
Let's just dive into it with The Oracle to guide you.
Check out this disaster --- the 9th inning. Everywhere you look it's one meltdown after another.
The following guys have a blown save and no saves.
It's a long season, but it's been a rough start for relievers. At the end of the day it comes down to how much rope is the manager willing to give his guy? The simple answer is none of us know. My advice? Add a reliever or two to the end of your bench in waivers. You don't need that third catcher or that 8th starting pitcher. When those middle relievers become closers it's insane how hot and heavy the bidding becomes. Be a step ahead. To help with that check out our Closer Report.
MY SEASON IS OVER...
Oh Chicken Little. The sky isn't falling.
I encourage everyone to read my Sample Size article before they throw in the towel.
NO ONE LIKES ME BUT...
I have a 20-12 career record.
I own a 3.58 ERA.
My WHIP is 1.22.
I'm not great but why doesn't anyone like me?
I'm Miguel Gonzalez of the Orioles.
CHRIS OWINGS SHOULD BE...
I got an email from Mark P. today asking me about Chris Owings. He heard the comparison on ESPN of Owings and Michael Young. While I have no issue with that in theory, I think it's a valid comp, let me be clear.
Saying Owings could hit .300 with 15 homers and 10 steals, while wrapping out 200 hits, is possible is totally different than saying you should be expecting that to happen this year. We've all had our minds poisoned by the unprecedented run of success by rookies the last few years. It simple doesn't work that way – despite what we've seen of late. The odds that Owings ever goes .300 with 15/10 in a season aren't huge. The odds that he does that this year are miniscule. Talent doesn't always equal production, especially at the start of a guys career. Just look at the case of Michael Young – he hit only .249 with 11 homers and three steals as a rookie. In year two he went .262-9-62. The game just isn't that easy folks.
Owings is a middle infield option in mixed leagues. I believe it's a mistake to be counting on him to be your starter at shortstop.
You lost Jose Reyes. To cover you picked up Marcus Semien. He's gone 0-for-10. You then go to the waiver wire and add DJ LeMahieu. Let's say he goes 2-for-12 so you drop him to add Omar Infante who then goes 3-for-11. The point is pick a guy and stick with him. All this micromanaging could work, but it could also leave you with a 5-for-33 stretch that could end up being worse than if you just held on to Semien who ended up going 6-for-29 to start the year. Get my point? Let things settle a bit.
QUOTING THE GREAT RAY FLOWERS...
This is from my Twitter account this morning.
“If ANYONE is making a move based off 2-3 games - I feel for you. Only area you should be doing that is RP.”
Take that to heart folks.
GOTTA PAY ATTENTION TO...
Those are three questions I received the last 12 hours. Here's the problem with each.
Miller is an infielder, Aoki an outfielder. Which position do you need to fill? Do you start five outfielders or three? Who are your options in the outfield and shortstop? Do you need the speed of Aoki? Context matters. How do you directly compare a shortstop to an outfielder without context? Answer – you can't.
I wrote about Smoak yesterday in my Mailbag piece. Not a fan. Regardless, we're back to the same issue I just touched on. Do you need an outfielder/second baseman or a first baseman? Are you looking for average or power?
This last question is the epitome of the early season oddness. I'm being asked if someone should drop a 25 homer, 80 RBI guy for another fella who will be lucky to go 6-40. How can you compare the duo straight up? If you drafted Brown thinking 25-30 homers how can you afford to take such a massive power hit on your club? Conversely, if you need speed – Bonifacio could steal 40+ bases – then why didn't you just draft Emilio in the last round of your draft?
Remember this – CONTEXT MATTERS. Look at your team. Where is it weak? Do you need help at position X or Y? Do you need power or speed? Those are the right questions to be asking before you move on to looking at specific players.
BUY OR SELL?