Adam Jones is currently going off the board 10th overall according to ADP numbers from the NFBC. I'm here to flat out tell you he shouldn't be taken that early. That line of though makes me about as popular as as a playmate at a fury convention (if you don't know what I'm talking about, check out this link). I'm still standing by the statement though. I honestly don't understand the unabashed, unconditional love for Adam Jones. That makes me an oddity in the fantasy universe, I get it, but I think if you take the next five minutes of your life, it really isn't that much time to learn something so counter to the prevailing thought, I think I'll be able to persuade you to turn to my side, the correct side, in evaluating Adam Jones.
Some straight forward bullet point statements that might surprise you given the overwhelming love that is heaped on Jones' shoulders.
He has never hit .290.
He has never hit 35 homers in a season.
He has only one season with 85 RBIs.
He has only two seasons with 85 runs scored.
He has never stolen 17 bases in a season.
He has never had a .336 OBP.
He's only had one season with a .500 SLG.
If those numbers aren't enough to scare the crap out of you – remember we're talking about a guy who is being drafted in the first round – let's put some context around it.
Jones has never hit .290 in a season, a mark that that Marlon Byrd bettered last year at .291.
Jones career best for homers is 33 in a season. Old ass Alfonso Soriano hit 34 last year.
Jones has only two seasons with 85 RBIs. I know they are the last two seasons – 103 and 100 the last two years – but shouldn't it be noted that Mark Trumbo has only been in the league three years yet he has at least 85 RBIs every season? Just saying.
Jones has two seasons with 85 runs scored. Everyone seems to hate his teammate, Nick Markakis, but he's scored 85 runs in four different seasons.
Jones is awful at getting on base. He's never had an OBP mark of .336 in a season. James Loney was at .348 last year. Moreover, since his career began, Jones is the owner of a .322 OBP which just so happens to be five points worse than the AL average from 2006-13 (.327).
Jones has had only one season with a SLG of .500, and in fact he's only had two seasons with a mark of .470. Joe Mauer hit 11 home runs last season and had a mark of .476. To compare that further, for his career Jones owns a .460 career SLG, eight points lower than Mauer.
And you want that guy to be your first round draft pick?
On the flip side, and I'll give him credit for a very interesting feat that speaks to his durability and skill, Jones is the only man in baseball who has reached all five of the following fantasy numbers in each of the last two seasons:
Credit for being very, very good is due Jones. But first round talent? Not so sure there.
Not saying these guys are better options, but just look at their numbers from 2013 and think about how you value them.
Those two guys had efforts last season that pretty closely mirror the efforts of Jones the past two years. If you took Soriano in the first 10 rounds this year people would laugh at you, and many would offer a chuckle if you took Pence in the first four rounds, yet Jones is going in the first round. Why? People see the numbers Jones has posted the last two seasons, realize their impressive nature, and think he's a lock to at least match if not improve upon those numbers in the coming season. Is that a fair position to take? You already know I'm going to say no.