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Who should you avoid in your fantasy baseball drafts in 2014? Which players are sleepers that you might consider targeting given their below market draft day cost? In this series we'll take a look at each position and give you some names to avoid and some to target.
* ADP's taken from the NFBC.
Jean Segura (32 ADP): I get it. He's young, he hit almost .300 and he stole more than 40 bases. He looks like a young Jose Reyes. Well almost. Actually not quite. I broke down Segura, his second half struggles (he barely hit .250 with only one home runs), and why folks should be a bit nervous with him in 2014 in his Player Profile.
Starlin Castro (120): A multi-time .300 hitter with with multiple 20 steals seasons who is only 24 years old. I know he stunk last season, and that he might be one of the bigger idiots in the game, but seriously, this is one talented guy. Read his Player Profile for the full story. You might be surprised to find out just how good he has been despite last seasons tank job.
Asdrubal Cabrera (181): I wrote about Cabrera in his Player Profile so I'll point you to that breakdown for my thoughts on why he is being undervalued this season. Just one factoid from that piece to catch your attention. How many shortstops in baseball have hit 14 homers with 64 RBIs, 66 runs scored and nine steals each of the past three seasons? The answer is one – Asdrubal Cabrera.
Jonathan Villar (215): Compare Villar to Everth Cabrera who has an ADP that is 130 picks earlier than Villar. Cabrera stole 37 bases in 95 games so many seem to be operating under the opinion that Cabrera is a 50+ steal guy. Is he? Cabrera has averaged 46 thefts per 150 games played though injuries, suspension and ineffectiveness have limited him to less than 116 games played in all of his five seasons. He's also a career .252 hitter so I'm not convinced in the league that he's the .283 batter we saw last season (see his Player Profile). Villar hasn't looked good this spring, and he's honestly nothing to look at with the bat in his hands. Still, the guy swiped 18 bases in just 58 games last season, a 150 game pace of 47 steals, and he doesn't figure to lose playing time to Marwin Gonzalez. Cabrera is the better get for production in 2014 but with the massive ADP difference it looks like Villar could easily be the better value.
Dee Gordon (402): I compared Gordon to Billy Hamilton directly in ADP Talk, What Are You Missing? Did you read that piece? If not, click on the link and notice the similarities which are plentiful between the two. Gordon isn't hitting this spring, but the Dodgers seem intent on having Alex Guerrero start the season in Triple-A meaning that Gordon and his wheels will almost certainly be starting at the keystone for the Dodgers. Dual position eligibility is in the cards for Gordon, and it would be unwise to rule out a 40+ steal effort, something that would make him an elite play given his draft day cost that is rising by the day (figure that Gordon could see 200 spots cut off his ADP if/when the Dodgers announce that he is there starter at second).
Get All of Ray's Picks in the 2014 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.