When the top two priced players on the board both miss the cut and in an event like the Puerto Rico Open, you should just shake your head and move on. Congrats to D.A. Points for picking up the victory and to Retief Goosen for making a hard charge on Sunday. It was an interesting tournament to say to least.
It is hard for me not to focus on next week. I can already see the azaleas behind Number 13 and already hear Jim Nantz saying, "A tradition like no other," which gives me goosebumps every time. Yes, I’m talking about the Masters, which begins next week in Augusta, Georgia. I mean even hearing the Masters music played on CBS gives me a sense of calm. I know, I’ve heard it a million times especially from my wife this time of year, I know I have a serious problem and I should seek help. I am going to do my best to take Georgia off my mind long enough to focus on putting together a terrific playbook for this week’s Shell Houston Open.
This event has always been known as a course that players use to work the kinks out before heading to Augusta next week. The Golf Club of Houston and Augusta National have very similar characteristics.
They've been playing this event at the Golf Club of Houston since 2006, which means that's where your course history should begin. GC of Houston measures out to 7,441 yards which means length is an advantage but not the be all end all. This course is made for players with good Greens in Regulation (GIR) numbers. If you look through course history, if a player can't hit greens consistently, he won't have success unless they are carried by their putter. The putter is always the great equalizer on any golf course.
Henrik Stenson, JB Holmes, Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh, Charley Hoffman, Louis Oosthuizen, Charl Schwartzel, Stewart Cink, Padraig Harrington, and Brendon de Jonge have all had success in this tournament. One thing you'll also notice when you look through course history, there are a lot of spotty records. You should avoid those players for your cash lineups but they are all fair game when it comes to GPPs. This course has been known to break a few hearts especially DFS players, just look at Jim Herman holding off Henrik Stenson to take last year’s title. I am notably leaving Stenson out of my playbook because frankly, I just can’t trust him. I never know which guy is going to show up each week and if he beats me, he beats me. I’m just going to avoid.
One last piece of advice, try to watch this tournament closely as players who perform well this weekend, should be put on our radar for the Masters next week. There I go again, I just can’t get it out of my mind.
I hope you have been trying out the new Fanduel game like I have. It is still a work in progress for most and I am trying out new things each week to see what formula works. In my cash lineup this week, I went with four guys who have the best track records on this course to make the cut.
Good Luck this week and I’ll be back next week with a FULL Master’s Breakdown.
DFS PGA PLAYBOOK:
PLAYER | DRAFT KINGS | FANDUEL | BREAKDOWN |
Jordan Spieth | $12,000 | $10,500 | Such a high price tag but playing too well to leave him out. Lost in a playoff here in 2015 & T13 last year. |
Jon Rahm | $10,700 | $10,200 | What MORE can you say about him? The 2017 coming out party started with a win at Torrey followed by a T16, T5, T3 & a 2nd |
Rickie Fowler | $10,000 | $9,500 | 6th in 2014 and T10 in 2016 with 5 Cuts Made in 5 Trips to Houston. Hasn't finished worse than T16 since the start of February. |
Adam Scott | $9,400 | $10,000 | He's become the forgotten superstar on Tour with the sweetest swing in the game. 2007 winner with 3 Top 15s worldwide in 2017. |
J.B Holmes | $9,200 | $8,400 | Won here in 2015 and also had a playoff loss in 2009. He can always score but his putting will be the key this weekend. |
Phil Mickelson | $8,900 | $9,300 | He likes to use this course to work on his game for the Masters but still won here in 2011 and hasn't finished worse than T17. |
Russell Henley | $8,700 | $6,900 | Finished T7, 4th, & T5 in his last 3 Trips to Houston. 3 Top 15s in 2017 as well. Scoring average of 69.15 (Last 13 rounds here) |
Charles Howell III | $8,500 | $7,500 | I mean 4 Top 10s & another 4 Top 15s this season, come on! He's also got 3 Top 10s & a T19 in his last 5 trips to Houston |
Charley Hoffman | $8,400 | $7,000 | 10 Trips, 10 Cuts Made (5 Top 25s). Finished T4 at Riviera and T2 at Bay Hill in the last month plus on Tour. |
Lee Westwood | $8,200 | $7,400 | CONTRARIAN PLAY - Missed the cut the last 2 trips to Houston but 7 straight made before that with 5 Top 25s. Game fits perfectly here |
Nick Watney | $8,100 | $6,800 | 4/4 Cuts Made with 2 Top 25s at the Shell. He's also got 3 T14s & a T28 in his last 4 starts (Inside the Top 20 in Greens Hit in each) |
Rafa Cabrera Bello | $7,900 | $8,200 | 4th Place last year here in his debut. He has only missed ONE CUT anywhere in the world in the last 17 1/2 months. |
Billy Horschel | $7,700 | $7,100 | Finished T2 here in 2013. He's got a T4 at the Honda and a T13 at Bay Hill. He needs to WIN here to get into the Masters. |
Patrick Reed | $7,600 | $8,700 | Struggled this season but this is a Home Game for him. T17 here in 2015 and T10 last year. GPP Play because of his Talent/Value |
Peter Uihlein | $7,300 | $6,800 | T5 last week in Puerto Rico makes him 9/9 cuts made with 4 Top 10 finishes since December worldwide. |
John Huh | $7,200 | $5,300 | 11/13 Cuts Made this season (2 Top 10s - Best Finish T9 at Copperhead). 2 Top 20s in 5 consecutive trips to Houston |
Stewart Cink | $7,100 | $6,200 | 10/11 Cuts Made this season (6 straight). He's made the cut at the Shell every year since 2013 when he finished T6 |
Tony Finau | $7,100 | $7,900 | 3 Top 10s & another 2 Top 25s in 2017. His missed cut last year will scare people off of his ability to go low! |
Chris Stroud | $6,900 | $5,200 | Local kid & has made 5 straight cuts at the Shell (2 Top 20s in 14' & 15'). Led the PR Open after 54 but finished T8. |
Bernd Wiesberger | $6,700 | $7,400 | Hasn't proven himself in the U.S. but his big stick could help this week. He finished T27 in his debut here last year |
Johnson Wagner | $6,500 | $4,500 | 1 for his last 9 cuts made BUT loves this place. Won here in 2008, lost in a playoff in 2015 & finished T13 last year. |
Michael Kim | $6,400 | $5,300 | 9/12 in Cuts Made this season with a T17 at Bay Hill (5th Top 25). Finished T27 last year at the Shell. |
Kyle Reifers | $6,400 | $5,200 | 4/4 Cuts Made at the Shell with 3 Top 25s (T7 last year). When he plays well in Puerto Rico, it bodes well here. |
DRAFT KINGS OPTIMALS:
DRAFT KINGS CASH | PRICE |
Rickie Fowler | $10,000 |
Charles Howell III | $8,500 |
Charley Hoffman | $8,400 |
Lee Westwood | $8,200 |
Nick Watney | $8,100 |
Kyle Reifers | $6,400 |
DRAFT KINGS GPP | PRICE |
Jon Rahm | $10,700 |
Rickie Fowler | $10,000 |
J.B. Holmes | $9,200 |
Tony Finau | $7,100 |
Johnson Wagner | $6,500 |
Kyle Reifers | $6,400 |
FANDUEL OPTIMALS:
FANDUEL CASH | ROUNDS | PRICE |
Johnson Wagner | 1 & 2 | $4,500 |
Charles Howell III | 1 & 2 | $7,500 |
J.B. Holmes | 1 & 2 | $8,400 |
Jordan Spieth | 1 & 2 | $10,500 |
Kyle Reifers | 3 & 4 | $5,200 |
Nick Watney | 3 & 4 | $6,800 |
Charley Hoffman | 3 & 4 | $7,000 |
Rickie Fowler | 3 & 4 | $9,500 |
FANDUEL GPP | ROUNDS | PRICE |
Michael Kim | 1 & 2 | $5,300 |
Lucas Glover | 1 & 2 | $6,400 |
Tony Finau | 1 & 2 | $7,900 |
Adam Scott | 1 & 2 | $10,000 |
Kyle Reifers | 3 & 4 | $5,200 |
Peter Uihlein | 3 & 4 | $6,800 |
Rafa Cabrera Bello | 3 & 4 | $8,200 |
Jon Rahm | 3 & 4 | $10,200 |
ONE & DONE PLAY:
ONE AND DONE PLAY | FINISH |
SBS - Jimmy Walker | T9 |
Sony - Charles Howell III | T8 |
Career - Bill Haas | T17 |
Farmers - Brandt Snedeker | T9 |
Waste - Brendan Steele | T16 |
Pebble - Phil Mickelson | 65th |
Genesis - J.B Holmes | T34 |
Honda - Graeme McDowell | T14 |
Mexico - Alexander Noren | T55 |
Valspar - Ryan Moore | T18 |
Arnold Palmer - Zach Johnson | T66 |
Match - Sergio Garcia | Out of Sweet 16 |
Puerto - David Hearn | T17 |
Shell - Lee Westwood | ? |