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Rapid Reactions
Considering the nature of the turnaround of this article, much of what I’m saying comes from the same amount of time you have had to watch the games each week. Published on Tuesday, the Running Back Workload is only hours removed from Monday Night Football, and day removed from Sunday. I’m often analyzing the red zone channel like Sherlock Holmes trying to get an advantage, and while it is helpful, I will also use this section to get my thoughts on the page. Here are my top-five rapid reactions from the Week 4 NFL running back climate…
1) Crowell-Do-Well
While not my favorite back, the production coming from Crowell so far this season is undeniable. He’s currently second in the league in rushing, the fourth highest scoring fantasy back, and first in the NFL in YPC with 6.5 per carry. Originally slated to serve in a committee, Crowell has all but completely secured the featured back role, while Duke Johnson has been relegated to a spell back and third down specialist role. Adjust your expectations going forward accordingly.
2) “Bell” Cow
While some were skeptical, Le’Veon Bell returned in Week 4 picking up exactly where he left off the last time he was on the field. He destroyed a good Chiefs defense for 144 rushing yards, and five receptions for 34 yards. Considering his incredible talent level and elite production, there is little chance that Bell cedes many reps to DeAngelo Williams going forward, despite the terrific start to the season that Williams had in the first few weeks.
3) The Duality of Murray: UPDATE
In last week’s edition I discussed the “Duality of Murray” in that I saw an interesting juxtaposition developing between the two backs with the same last name. While DeMarco Murray, last season, was arguably the biggest bust in the league and Latavius Murray was regarded as an emerging talent, this season the trend has been the exact opposite. After Week 3 that analysis held true and after Week 4 the hot take began to sizzle even more. DeMarco now is the league’s highest scoring fantasy back – and by a large margin at that too (10 points) – while Latavius’ production dipped down to an even lower level. I will continue to follow this narrative as the season rolls along.
4) Howard Hype?
Last week I clued you in on Bears rookie Jordan Howard as my Nostra-Dom-Us flyer pick of the week, and he responded with a 111 yard performance. He was on the field for 63 of the 69 offense snaps that the Bears took, and coach John Fox went on the record that he plans on riding the rookie just as hard for the foreseeable future. If you were wondering if the Howard Hype is real, the answer is yes. He is the most talented back on the roster and has proven to be an even better receiver than previously evaluated in the draft process. Consider him a must add going forward.
5) Zeke Delivers
I went on record prior to the season saying that I was all in on Zeke as the RB MVP (Emmitt Smith Golden Ball) for 2016. While he started slow in Week 1, Ezekiel Elliott has steadily progressed through the first quarter of the season to the point that he is now leading the NFL in rushing with 412 yards. After back-to-back 135-plus yard rushing performances, Elliott seems to be the most reliable playmaker on the Cowboys offense at the moment and considering his billing as the fourth overall pick, I don’t see that changing anytime soon. Zeke has been worth every first round pick (both in reality and in the fantasy realm) so far.
Nostra-Dom-Us
Last week my picks did pretty well overall – aside from LeGarrette Blount who finished with 13 carries for 54 yards – but hey, that still equates to over 4.2 yards per carry.
While Carlos Hyde didn’t end up being the play of the week like I said he had the potential to be, he was still well worth the flex bargain of merely $4,200 on DraftKings, as he finished with 74 rushing yards and a touchdown. My best prediction was Jordan Howard who tallied 111 rushing yards after holding a mere $3,700 price tag on DraftKings. As for this week, there are a few favorable matchups that I would like to help you exploit. Similarly to my WR vs. CB Matchup article, I will set my picks of the week below in tiers so that you have some flexibility when making your budgeted DFS lineups.
ELITE PLAYS
David Johnson ($7,900 on DraftKings) vs. SF Defense
Right now, Johnson is the best back in football. Not necessarily in terms of talent – as that is always up for debate – but in terms if importance to his offense and what he is asked to do. No other back in the league outside of maybe Le’Veon Bell – when available – is relied upon so heavily for their offense to produce. Despite the overall struggles of the Cardinals this season, Johnson has been the one constant contributor. He is running downhill, gaining tough yards, touching the ball nearly 30 times per game, and is more involved in the passing game than any other back in football.
Taking on this 49ers defense that just allowed over 150 yards to a rookie running back in Zeke Elliott, I expect Johnson to pace the Cardinals in their much-needed “get back on track” game. He may be the most expensive play this week, but I expect almost guaranteed production out of Johnson in Week 5.
DeMarco Murray ($7,200 on DraftKings) vs. MIA Defense
I’m going to keep recommending him until I either hate his matchup or mediocre defenses figure out a way to stop him. Murray may be a bit pricy, but he has yet to score under 21.5 points in any matchup this season (DraftKings scoring). Even if the Dolphins decide to load the box and stop the run, Murray has proven to produce just as well in the passing game, keeping up his lofty fantasy quote. Don’t think too hard about this one.
AFFORDABLE PLAY
Frank Gore ($5,700 on DraftKings) vs. CHI Defense
Yes Chicago’s defense looked much better last week against an emerging Lions offense, but the Lions don’t have any semblance of a running game, which likely made life much easier for the Bears. Let us not forget that this is the same defense that allowed 100 yards rushing in each of the previous three weeks, including 140 from Zeke Elliott alone and 200 from the Cowboys team as a whole in Week 3.
Frank Gore has looked solid overall this season and considering the Colts play much better at home in the dome, I think he has a good chance to be a value play in Week 5 at only $5,700 on DraftKings.
BARGAIN PLAYS
Carlos Hyde ($4,800 on DraftKings) vs. ARI Defense
Really this pick for me comes at the incredibly affordable price point. Hyde is one of the league’s best backs and seems to produce regardless of how the rest of the 49ers team is doing. Yes this Arizona defense is good, but right now the team is on the ropes. If Hyde can control the pace of the game, the reeling Cardinals may just quit early. Keep in mind I’m not saying that he is a guaranteed producer this week as the Cardinals defense may find a way to turn it on, but I find his price tag too tasty not to take a bite.
Terrance West ($4,800 on DraftKings) vs. WAS Defense
West is coming off his best career game and is taking on a struggling Redskins defense. After the release of Justin Forsett, he now has little competition for touches in the Ravens backfield. Getting the start at home, coming off of a big week against a bad opponent this Sunday, I like the recipe for success for the young running back. Certainly a value play here.
FLYER PLAY
DeAndre Washington ($3,400 on DraftKings) vs. SD Defense
According to ESPN’s Ian Rapoport, the Raiders are beginning to feel the same way I do about their backfield. Since the offseason I have been warning fantasy owners about Latavius Murray’s potential struggles in 2016 and have been preaching DeAndre Washington until blue in the face. According to Rapoport, the Raiders plan on playing the hot hand in Week 5, stating that they intend on getting Washington his fair share along with Murray’s starting touches. He also reported that Washington has firmly passed Jalen Richard on the depth chart, meaning that all Washington has to do is outplay Murray and he should see the lion’s share of the workload on Sunday. Luckily for fantasy owners that have listened to me, Washington has outplayed Murray in three out of the Raiders four games so far this season already, so he should have no problem doing the same in Week 5. Considering his 2008 housing market price point of merely $3,400, Washington may be worth a flyer flex play if you are strapped for cash.